After the Prime Minister is "forced to step down", what kind of change will Britain usher in?

At the beginning of July, the most watched by the international community was the resignation of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

On July 7, local time, after a 5 -minute resignation statement, Johnson turned and walked into No. 10 Tangning Street. In the statement, he announced his resignation of the Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister's position, and he would continue to stay in office before the new Conservative leader was elected. At this point, the "Force Palace" scandal of British politics has come to an end for a few days, and Johnson may become one of the shortest British prime ministers in history.

The election of the new Prime Minister has been launched for many days. On July 20, local time, the fifth round of voting showed that the final two competitors were former British Financial Ministers Rich Sunak and the current Foreign Minister Leeds Tellas. About 160,000 Conservative Party members will vote again to the two in the future, and the winners are expected to be announced on September 5.

The new party was about to come out, and after Johnson resigned, a series of discussions have not stopped. Why does the Prime Minister of the "Brexit" go to a step of betrayal? How can the changes in British politics affect the situation in Europe and the situation in Russia and Ukraine? In response to related topics, the reporter of "China News" listened to the expert's point of view.

A "avalanche" collapse

Johnson, who has a distinctive personality, was loved by the British. But this "personality" also worked foreshadowing the crisis of Johnson's trust in British.

As early as June 25 last year, the British "Sun" published a picture of the picture on May 6th. The then Minister of Health Matt Hancker visited his girlfriend privately, and the British epidemic prevention policy regulations were prohibited and prohibited and and of them. People other than family members have hugs and other physical contact. In this regard, Johnson did not reprimand. Since then, he has broke out the "party door" incident and became the first prime minister in British history to be investigated and fined.

Such biased behaviors have appeared more than once. In October 2021, Owen Patterson, a member of the Conservative Party, was exposed to a part -time consultant at a medical company in Northern Ireland during the exposure of the epidemic, and received a "consulting fee" of £ 100,000 per year. Congress decided to suspend his status of his parliament for 30 days. Johnson's long -term support for Patterson's claim for Brexit, trying to change the rules to avoid punishment. In the end, Patterson lost to public opinion resignation. But for the sanctuary, he was concerned about him, causing public opinion uproar.

The end of Johnson's road to Prime Minister Johnson is the "Ping Che Incident". According to the "Sun" report, the Conservative Vice Chairman Ping Che has been accused of sexual harassment of two male members after drinking. Although Johnson had previously knew the allegations, he still chose to conceal the facts and continue to appoint Ping Che as important position.

Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of China International Institute of International Issues, analyzed the reporter of the China Report that Johnson's pressure at the time was in addition to serious doubts about political reputation and personal character. In the local elections in May this year and the two members of the MPs in June, the Conservative Party failed in succession. In the case of a series of elections, one person must always take responsibility, "this person must be Johnson."

The scandal appeared frequently. Although Johnson showed a fatigue, he insisted that he would not resign. In early July, the successive departure of the British Minister of Health Javid and the Financial Minister Sonak directly changed this situation. Cui Hongjian told reporters that on the one hand, the two's qualifications are deeper. On the other hand, the position is directly related to the two most priority matters of the Johnson government -epidemic prevention and development of the economy, which has caused the Domino brand effect instantly. A number of senior government officials resigned, while linking the people's confidence.

Johnson eventually announced the resignation of the party leader and Prime Minister's position. Wang Zhanpeng, director of the British Research Center of Beijing University of Foreign Languages ​​University, believes that for the Conservative Party, Johnson has another consideration to step down, that is, the Conservative Party needs to re -establish a consensus and find a core politician to ensure that the post of Prime Minister continues Rotate in the party.

But the fundamental fundamental forcing Johnson to step down is not only the crisis of trust. Wang Zhanpeng pointed out to the "China News" reporter that starting from the second half of last year, the British people have faced a "crisis of life costs", and inflation has soared to 9.1%at present, a new high of nearly 40 years. Including medical care, teachers, lawyers and many other industries have conducted strikes or threatening strikes to express their demands. In June this year, railway workers broke out the largest strike in nearly 30 years.

Compared with the impact of the epidemic, Wang Zhanpeng emphasized the disorder caused by Brexit to British society. Cui Hongjian also said that Johnson, who has a strong populist color, has served as the Prime Minister in 2019 and ended the long -term tug -of -Brexit process in the UK with a tough attitude, but "Cheng also Xiao He is defeated and Xiao He". Britain actually needs to change from chaos as soon as possible. In this process, the Johnson government did not promote the effort to land.

The too thin trade agreement signed with the EU caused the border confusion, leading to turbulence in the labor market due to restrictions on immigrants from the European Union, and triggering trade issues between Northern Ireland and other England countries. The trade between Brexit and the European Union has declined sharply, and since then, Johnson's policy has increased the possibility of a trade war with the EU. According to estimates at the British Budget Responsibility Office, the British economic scale will be reduced by 4%compared to the EU. Bloomberg also said that one year after Brexit, British GDP fell at least 1.5%.

Especially in the context of the impact of the epidemic affected Russia and Ukraine conflict, the Johnson government first showed a sway in the epidemic prevention policy. After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, in the case of less relying on Russia's energy, the British inflation rate is still higher than that of the United States. And parts of Europe. From the perspective of interviewed experts, these are not all the issues of Johnson, but after all, their ambitious economic plans have fallen. After the "Johnson Age" ended

Cui Hongjian noticed that Johnson's resignation statement mainly conveyed two meanings in a few minutes of resignation: one is to resign as forced, hoping to continue to fight for the Conservative Party; The so -called achievements in refugee issues should not only leave some political heritage, but also hope that the successor can continue such policies.

In fact, regardless of whether Johnson can realize his wish, this political turmoil has brought instant impact to Britain. According to Reuters, on July 11, the British pound fell to the US dollar to two years, and Johnson's resignation deepened the uncertainty of the British economy. The British economy was facing the double -digit inflation rate, risk of recession and the pressure of Brexit. British fiscal forecasting personnel warn that if the government does not take action, Britain will face the highest level of debt burden in the past 50 years.

The "butterfly effect" caused by Johnson's resignation will also bring variables to the relationship between Britain and many parties. The EU's chief representative of the Brexit negotiations Michelle Banier said that it is expected that the EU's relationship with the United Kingdom will be more constructive in the future, especially in the peace and stability of Northern Ireland. In this regard, Cui Hongjian also believes that the Brexit label of Johnson's successor will not be stronger than Johnson, so British and European relations may have some ease. For example, on the issue of contradiction between the North Ireland and others, the two parties have been resolved by negotiations. The possibility will be greatly improved.

The United States' response to Johnson's resignation was relatively not obvious. Cui Hongjian told a reporter from the China News that Johnson resigned the opportunity to take the British and the European Union to deal with the Northern Ireland issue, which reduced the pressure on the United States to face Irish citizens. However, he also said that the Johnson government clearly follows the United States in the conflict of Russia and Ukraine. The United States may worry about whether the new government can be consistent with the US and Ukraine issues like Johnson.

Since the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine, the Johnson government has supported Ukraine's radicals. Senior Russian officials have pointed out that once the Third World War broke out, London will become the first target of the Russian nuclear weapon blow. Cui Hongjian said that many European countries in the Russian and Ukraine conflict between European countries are often picked up by Britain. Russia has a warm response to Johnson's steps down. It is also hoped that the successor will not be as tough as Johnson on the issue of Russia.

In Wang Zhanpeng's view, the British government's attitude towards Russia will not change significantly because of Johnson's departure, and there are almost no candidates who are willing to ease Russia. But he also said that Johnson is a unconventional politician, and the new Prime Minister is likely to not have exaggerated political performances on the situation of Russia like him. Whether Ukraine, which has been separated from political performance, can continue to obtain the British or entire Western society. Supporting and resources have become a problem that Zellezki is facing.

Cui Hongjian and Wang Zhanpeng believe that when dealing with the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the new British government will not change the big direction, but there will be some policy balance. Cui Hongjian judged that when Johnson took office, his statement about Russia and Ukraine's conflict or northern Ireland issues had to varying degrees to transfer domestic contradictions to varying degrees. If the new Prime Minister is a more responsible leader, he may pay more attention to more attention. Steering for domestic problems such as inflation and economic recovery.

Who will enter the master at 10 Tangning Street?

Who will be the next British Prime Minister. According to Cui Hongjian's observation, candidates are mainly divided into three categories. The first category is the traditional British politician -white people, good education, and political experience; the second category is migrant descendants; the third category is women.

On July 11, the "1922 Committee" of the British Parliament's next Council's Conservative Party members announced the conservative party leader election timetable. In order to accelerate the election process, the "1922 Committee" will be 8 people were raised to at least 20 people. Under the new regulations, a total of 11 conservative members of the conservative party expressed their intention to run on the same day.

After two rounds of voting in the party, five candidates stood out. Among them, former British Minister of Finance Sonak, former National Defense Minister Moditte, and Foreign Minister Tras were regarded as the main "leaders" by the media. At the end of the fourth round of voting, the three successfully shortlisted the next round of the "three selections and two" competition.

On July 20, the Conservative Party ended the fifth round of voting. Sunak led Tellas 24 votes and received 137 votes support. Moditt failed to enter the final duel with 105 votes. This shows that the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will be produced in Sunak and Tellas.

Cui Hongjian told the reporter of "China News" that no matter which candidate wins, the new government faces two major tasks. One is to make a certain degree of cutting with the Johnson government, and the other is to make achievements while maintaining social stability during the remaining period to ensure that the Conservative Party won the re -election in the next election. In view of this, the successor must have both the ability to meet the "dual division" and some technical bureaucratic characteristics.

He further explained that the division of Brexit and retaining in Europe had previously appeared within the Conservative Party, and now there is a division of support and opposition to Johnson. Gather a majority of core consciousness. " Secondly, those who have technical bureaucratic characteristics are likely to solve difficult problems such as strikes, inflation, and energy prices facing British society. Cui Hongjian believes that this is why Sunak's current voice is the highest. Many British newspapers believe that the policy preaching that changing the economic downturn is the most important weapon for the next prime minister. Looking back at the previous campaign declaration, it is not difficult to find that the main candidates have published their own positions and policies in order to obtain voting support.

For example, Sunak bluntly stated that he is capable of dealing with the current economic dilemma of the UK, and a significant tax reduction commitment made by other candidates calls for not just "good fairy tales", and also clarify that he will take the priority of "suppressing inflation"; Montet told the Sunday Times that resolving the crisis of life cost is her primary task. In an interview with BBC, she also revealed that the plan to reduce the value -added tax of gasoline was reduced to 10%and increased the taxation point of taxation to relieve people's livelihood; Las hopes to abolish the cost of national insurance in April 2023 and cancel the planned company in the plan.

From the perspective of the experts interviewed, the candidate was waiting for the position of the Prime Minister for a long time. Before the final election results came out, everything was still unknown. Cui Hongjian emphasized the importance of the last round of the party's voting. "It depends on who deepened the foundation inside the Conservative Party, especially whether it can mobilize some heavyweight characters to launch support for themselves. This may be a affecting the final result of the final result. The key factor".

Policies to China may continue to find "balance"

Prime Minister Yi Lord has triggered the prediction of the academic community on the direction of Sino -British relations. Cui Hongjian and Wang Zhanpeng's views are consistent: Before the new phase was finalized, the direction of the new British government's policy on China is still difficult to conclude.

By reviewing the Sino -British relations between the Cameron government, the Trysa May government, and the Johnson government, Cui Hongjian told the reporter of "China Report" that as a medium -sized economy, finding a balance for Britain is the most in line with its own interests- Focusing on cooperation with the United States, China is regarded as an incremental increase — the Asia -Pacific region where China and China are located representing the future, and Britain is unwilling to give up. In the future, it is difficult for Sino -British relations to get out of this track.

When Cameron was in power in 2015, Sino -British relations opened a "golden age". Cui Hongjian said that this was the climax of Sino -British relations during the Conservative Party's ruling period since 2010. But then the situation changed, one was Brexit in the UK and the other was Trump came to power, which had a significant impact on Sino -British relations.

On October 2, 2016, then Prime Minister Tresa May announced the Brexit timetable. "After 2016, Brexit has become the focus of Britain's internal and foreign policies. Its attention and importance to China policies have also made many problems in dealing with Brexit." Relations with the United States have developed economic cooperation with China, but after Trump came to power, competition between China and the United States intensified, and Britain wants to make balanced space between China and the United States.

One of the most typical examples is Britain's abandonment of cooperation with Huawei in 5G construction. At that time, according to the British "Daily Telegraph", the Trump administration had sent signals to the UK. Whether the next British Prime Minister could reach a trade agreement with the United States depends on whether it is on the Huawei issue with the US "station station on the station. To a team ".

From Cui Hongjian's view, during the period of Johnson, Trysa May gradually developed from an early climax to Britain and still wanted to find a balance between China and the United States. However, this balance is becoming more and more difficult to maintain. More and more political factors and external factors. "Especially after Bayeng came to power, Britain's internal support of the so -called 'cross -Atlantic faction' of cooperation with the United States is getting stronger and stronger. To a certain extent, the British government and various political parties, including the claims in parliament, have formed pressure on China cooperation". " Essence

Cui Hongjian's outlook says that Johnson's successor will still work hard to seek a balance. Next, what tests the Conservative Government is how to find some of the practices that can affect the Bayeng government on the Chinese policy, and try to leave a certain space for themselves. Then continue to benefit from cooperation with China and the United States.

In Wang Zhanpeng's view, the entire Western pattern of China will not have fundamental changes, at least it will not change due to the change of British Prime Minister. "Britain's current economy is not good, and pragmatic leaders may have some attitude stances to seek cooperation with Chinese side, but this depends on which Prime Minister's event. If it is Tellas, Sino -British relations may be basically basically with the Johnson period. The same, but Sunak may be better. "Wang Zhanpeng said.

Written: "China News" reporter Chen Ke intern Xu Yujing

Responsible: Xu Hao

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