In the first half of the year, China Foreign Trade Stability Back is expected to be a V -type trend throughout the year

Zhou Jinzhu Director and Associate Researcher of the International Trade Research Department of the China Trade Promotion Association

Since May of this year, with the overall improvement of the prevention and control situation of the new crown pneumonia, the effectiveness of the policy measures of steady growth has gradually emerged, and the operation of China's foreign trade operation has changed positively. According to customs statistics, the total value of China's goods trade in the first half of this year was 1.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4%year -on -year. Among them, exports were 11.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.2%; imports were 8.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. In the first half of the year, China's foreign trade imports and exports showed strong toughness. In the first quarter, it started steadily. In May and June, it quickly reversed the trend of decline in the growth rate in April, laying a solid foundation for the overall foreign trade stability and quality.

The main problems faced by foreign trade companies in the second quarter have improved significantly

After various localities, relevant departments, and the majority of foreign trade enterprises, a series of effects of foreign trade policies have gradually emerged. At present, the main difficulties facing foreign trade enterprises are still concentrated in two aspects of "one liter and one drop", that is, rising raw material costs and new orders have been added. The year -on -year decrease; the problems of freight rates, funds, exchange rates, and employment have been effectively relieved.

Affected by the impact of the epidemic and the comprehensive influence of the international situation, the purchase cost of raw materials for foreign trade enterprises is still high. The survey showed that 70.42%of companies said that rising raw material costs are the biggest difficulties they are facing. In the second quarter, the purchase price index of China's manufacturing raw materials was still in the expansion range, but continued to decrease. According to the data released by the State Bureau of Statistics, the price index of the main raw material purchases in June was 52.0%, a year -on -year decrease of 9.2 percentage points, and a decrease of 3.8 percentage points from the previous month.

The decline in orders for foreign trade companies is still not optimistic year -on -year. The survey showed that 52.5%of companies said that the new orders in the second quarter decreased from the same period last year. At the same time, 66.02%of companies felt the diversion of orders. With the implementation of the country's strong orderly and orderly implementation of the implementation of the seductive transportation policies such as sea and air ports, the efforts of ensuring that the logistics of foreign trade enterprises from domestic transportation, entry and exit, port loading and unloading to ship cabinets continued to increase, and the problem of high domestic logistics costs has something to do. ease. In the second quarter, the average monthly value of China's export container freight index decreased by 8.41%from the first quarter, which maintained a downward trend.

As the state further strengthens the financial support policies of small and medium -sized foreign trade enterprises, the problem of difficulty financing and expensive financing has been eased. The survey showed that 15.05%of the company believed that the cost of capital decreased compared to the same period last year.

China's foreign trade basically faces the trend obvious

After the implementation of a series of foreign trade and stability and quality policies in China, China's major trade partners have a strong demand for import. Foreign trade enterprises have shown a good trend of the understanding and utilization of RCEP. The three major issues of the demand contraction, supply impact, and weakening of the demand for Chinese foreign trade enterprises are gradually alleviating.

China's major trading partners have maintained a significant increase in imports since the second quarter. The EU imports in April increased by 45.42%year -on -year, the import volume in the United States increased by 23.65%year -on -year. %.

Since the beginning of this year, foreign trade companies have risen significantly in the second quarter. The survey shows that 18.91%of foreign trade enterprises have used RCEP; another 21.37%of foreign trade enterprises said that export products have better tariff discounts on the original bilateral FTA, so RCEP has not been used yet.

The state continues to increase the policy support for the new model of trade formats, the foreign trade enterprises actively innovate, strive to transform and upgrade, and the government and the market entity form joint efforts. Limited negative effects. The survey shows that 42.43%of foreign trade companies believe that comprehensive foreign trade services have the most role in promoting exports; the role of cross -border e -commerce is second, accounting for 21.2%; The proportion is equivalent, all about 13%.

The country has successively introduced a series of foreign trade policies to help enterprises have rescued difficulties. At present, the policy effect is obvious. The survey shows that 55.97%of the company believes that accelerating tax refund helps the company's relief pressure to relieve cash flow pressure, and 54.8%and 48.21%respectively believe that accelerating tax cuts and relieving logistics pressure are more effective for solving the actual difficulties of foreign trade enterprises. Essence Enterprises have a high degree of policy recognition of customs clearance and financial support, all reaching more than 30%.

Foreign trade enterprises have increased significantly on annual growth expectations

Comprehensive analysis of factors such as the domestic international production pilot index and the expectations of large and medium -sized foreign trade enterprises. Although China's foreign trade growth pressure is still large, it is expected that the growth rate of foreign trade will show a V -type trend throughout the year.

The impact of the epidemic on domestic and international production has gradually weakened, and the level of domestic and international manufacturing industry has shown a good trend. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the second quarter, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry continued to rise, rising to 50.2%in June, and returned to the expansion range after three consecutive months of contraction. As of June, Morgan Chase global manufacturing PMI, the American ISM manufacturing PMI, and the Markit manufacturing PMI of the euro zone have been located above the Rongku Line for 24 consecutive months.

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