Hot and hot!Why is the extreme high -temperature weather frequently this year?

In the past few days, my country has continued to usher in high temperature "burning baking". The monitoring of the National Climate Center shows that since June this year (as of July 12), the average high temperature number of high temperatures in my country is 5.3 days, which is 2.4 days than the same period of the year. It is the most history since 1961. The maximum temperature breaks through the historical extreme value.

Why are there a large range of extreme high -temperature weather this year? Is it too early to occur in my country's high temperature incident? Regarding these issues, many experts told the China Science Journal that there was indeed a advance trend in the occurrence of high -temperature incidents in my country, and the intensity, duration, and frequency of occurrence have shown a significant increase, but they are still in normal times.

Earlier, Tangjia volcanic eruption brought doubts about whether the world would enter the "year without summer". Wei Ke, an associate researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and deputy director of the Mestwriting System Research Center, pointed out that from the actual situation, global warming is a major trend, and it is still the "initial figurine" of rising global temperatures.

High temperature caused by subtropical high pressure

Since June 13, my country has emerged for the first regional high -temperature weather process this year. It has a wide range, long duration, strong extremes, and great impact.

This continuous high temperature has affected many countries and regions around the world. The Indian Meteorological Administration reports that the average maximum temperature in the central India in April reached 37.78 ° C, which is the highest value since the record in the past 122; dozens of states in the United States ushered in the "hottest" summer in history, and the temperature in many places broke the high temperature record; and the high temperature records; and the high temperature records; and the high temperature records; and the high temperature records; and the high temperature records; and Many European countries under the heat waves, such as Portugal, Spain, France, and Croatia, have suffered from different degrees of mountain forest fires.

Fu Jiaolan, the chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory and senior engineer of Zhengyan, pointed out that my country's high temperature weather is closely related to the high pressure of the mainland and the subtropical high pressure.

"In early July, Iran's high pressure developed abnormally and moved east to the northwest and southwestern regions of my country. At the same time, the subtropical high -pressure west extension was enhanced to control most of our southern parts of China. Affected by the high pressure spine, the eastern and eastern parts of the northwest region in the northwest of my country In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the air flows are prevailing, mainly in the sun, heat and rain, and the weather is mainly influenced by sun radiation during the day, and the temperature rises significantly. "Fu Jiaolan said.

Wang Jun, an associate researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, pointed out that most areas in my country are located in the East Asian monsoon area and influenced by the northwestern Pacific subtropical high -pressure and South Asian high -pressure systems. In summer, high temperature weather often occurs. Due to the influence of global climate change, compared with the mid -to -late last century, the frequency, strength, duration and influence scope of high temperature in my country in recent years have increased significantly. At the same time, with the development of my country's urbanization, the intensity of urban hot islands has increased significantly, which has further promoted the increase in high temperature weather in some cities in some cities in my country.

"La Nina" affects the rainy season process

The La Nina incident refers to the sea temperature of the Equator Middle East Pacific for a period of time lower than the normal year. According to statistical analysis, in the summer of most La Nina incidents, the Western Pacific subtropical high pressure is easy to be north.

Since my country entered the summer this year, the southern region has appeared in the southern region, and the "lower water" model has also opened. Is the La Nina incident behind the main causes?

Yuan Yuan, a researcher at the National Climate Center, said that the La Nina incident is not the main reason for this round of global high temperature, but it affects the establishment of the East Asian summer wind and the rainy season in China. Early, the first and lower reaches of the Jiangnan and the Yangtze River were early, and it also provided an important climate background for the flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin in the near future.

At the same time, in the context of global warming, affected by East Asian summer winds and water vapor transportation and regional soil and vegetation's water dispersion, in recent years, in some areas of my country, there are frequent high temperature and high humidity weather in some areas of China.

Wang Jun said that compared with high temperature and low humidity weather, high temperature and high humidity weather is more harmful to human health, and especially needs to be alert to the occurrence of diseases such as heat irritation. In high temperature and high humidity weather, outdoor activities should be reduced as much as possible, water replenishment is timely and effective, and moderate rest should be paid to heatstroke and cooling.

According to the prediction of the World Meteorological Organization and International Agency, the probability of rare "triple" La Nina incident at the end of this year reached 60%.

Wei Ke said that the La Nina incident, which began in the fall of 2020, is still continuing. At present, the East Pacific Sea temperature is low. This situation continues until the end of the year, and a strong La Nina incident will not be formed to a large extent.

"However, my country is in the middle latitude area and is a typical monsoon area. The impact and other factors of the ocean will be mixed together to affect our climate. With the arrival of the South China Sea season, my country's weather system will be pushed north, which may eventually lead There are too many rainfall in North China and South China, and there are fewer precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin. "Wei Ke pointed out.

Extreme weather may become a "foresight of the future"

A spokesman for the World Meteorological Organization Nalis said the heat wave came earlier due to climate change. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, global warming will be greater, and what is currently undergoing is only a "future sign of the future."

The sixth evaluation report of the Special Committee of the United Nations Intergovernmental Climate Change (IPCC) pointed out that most of the world's population will appear more, stronger, and longer extreme high temperatures in the future. Even if the temperature control target of 1.5 ° C is finally achieved, this risk cannot be completely avoided.

Wang Jun said that it is almost certain that as the global climate has further increased in the future, the probability and intensity of extreme high temperature weather will increase.When global warming reaches a certain range in the future, some extreme high temperature weather may be normalized.In 2022, a paper published in The Innovation analyzed the meteorological and death data of 36 countries and 717 cities 47 years (1972-2018), pointing outrisk.The author said that the future high -temperature warning system should also include extreme high temperature weather and temperature fluctuations at the same time, and allocate resources through the hierarchical early warning system to reduce the impact of high temperature weather on the health of the crowd.

"We must actively respond to climate change, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, slow down the global warming, and at the same time strengthen the response work, do a good job of extreme weather warning, evaluate possible risks, strengthen the construction of disaster prevention and mitigation infrastructure, improve the overall climate change in society,The ability, Wei Ke pointed out.(Journal of China)

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