In July, the experts of LPR "steps in place" are expected to be reduced in three quarters of 5 years or above.

"LPR quotation is formed on the basis of MLF (interim borrowing convenience) interest rates. In July, the MLF interest rate remained unchanged, which means that the foundation of LPR quotation in the month has not changed; Introduced other new bank cost measures, and the scale of loans in June was sharply high, and the loan interest rate was near the historical minimum level. Therefore, from the perspective of the bank's capital costs or the balance of supply and demand in the loan market, the quotation bank lacked a down reduction in July. The motivation. "Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told the Securities Daily reporter.

At the same time, Wang Qing said that the LPR of more than 5 years in May was reduced by 15 basis points, which is large, which will also digest the voltage of bank liabilities in April and the market -oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates in April. effect. As a result, the LPR quotation in July meets market expectations.

In the later period, analysts generally believe that LPR still has room to regulate, especially the possibility of LPR more than 5 years linked to the mortgage interest rate.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the current newly issued corporate loan interest rate has reached a record low, and the interest rate of mortgage and retail loan has decreased greater. To a certain extent, it plays the effect of stimulating financing. However, if the subsequent economic recovery is not as good as expected, the repair of consumption and investment is weak, there may still be room for LPR in the future, and the probability of decline in LPR above 5 years is greater.

Wen Bin further stated that the current level of 3.7%of the 1 -year LPR has been low. If it continues to guide the 1 -year LPR reduction, it is easy to exacerbate the arbitrage behavior of the enterprise and deviate from the original intention of the policy. Judging from the quotation of LPR above 5 years, the decline in the 15 basis points in May exceeded expectations to drive real estate sales to improve; considering that the downward and stable growth pressure of real estate is still large, the LPR quotation of more than 5 years will still be more than 5 years. It is possible that the MLF interest rate is stable and moderately lowered.

"Based on the consideration of the current property market trend and control related risks, the probability of LPR more than 5 years in the third quarter is more likely to regulate itself alone; depending on the momentum of investment and consumption restoration in the second half of the year, it does not rule out the possibility of a small LPR quotation that is slightly reduced by a slight decrease of the 1 -year LPR quotation. "Wang Qing believes that" stable MLF interest rate+down reduction LPR quotation "will be a specific measure of" taking into account both internal and external balance "while maintaining a stable growth orientation.

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