You have lost, and the investment of securities firms has shrunk.

Many performance forecasts show that the first half of the year's performance is mainly A -share shocks that have affected investment income. Some securities firms also provide credit impairment losses due to the company's stock pledge. Many brokerage firms mentioned in the performance trailer that due to the fluctuations in the securities market, the company's fair value changes and investment income decreased year -on -year in the first half of 2022, and the income of self -operated business decreased significantly, resulting in a decline in performance.

Author: Liang Ji

Figure: Tuwa Creative

Guide

One || data shows that the performance of nine A -share listed securities firms that have been disclosed in semi -annual performance forecast has declined across the board, and net profit decreases from 60%to 80%year -on -year. Pacific Securities and Central Plains Securities are expected to record losses.

业 || Compared with the pre -decreased performance of the industry, the leading wealth of the Internet brokerage dealers "stands out": the company achieved revenue of 4.177 billion yuan, an increase of 34.14%year -on -year; net profit was 2.848 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 37.52%.

Third || In fact, in the context of the turbulence of the global capital market, foreign investment banks' performance in the first half of the year is also unsatisfactory.

Continuing the trend in the first quarter, the "mid -examination" transcript of the securities industry is still difficult to spend optimal. As of July 19, 2022, a total of 18 A -share listed securities firms and Huacchuangyang An and other 18 brokerage listed companies released the performance forecast of the 2022 semi -annual report, and the net profit generally declined by 60%to 80%. Among them, there was " The Eastern Wealth of the Internet brokerage, known as the voucher ", has a unique one, with current revenue and net profit increased by more than 30%year -on -year.

Many performance forecasts show that the first half of the year's performance is mainly A -share shocks that have affected investment income. Some securities firms also provide credit impairment losses due to the company's stock pledge.

In the first half of the year, with the repeated external political conflict and domestic epidemic, A shares appeared on the end of January, mid -March and at the end of April. Then we ushered in a strong rebound until early July.

In the report, CITIC Construction Investment's non -silver team pointed out that due to the sharp recovery of investment income, the profit in the second quarter improved significantly in the second quarter. It is expected that the second quarter of the securities industry will be warmed up in the second quarter, and the annual profit is low and high. The main factors for suppressing performance in the first half of the year are the decline in self -investment investment income and the sales of Xinfa Fund will be cold. The two accompany the stable growth intensity and the expected improvement of the economic recovery → the capital market pricing environment recovers → the main line logic of improvement of micro -liquidity improvement. The suppression will gradually be lifted.

The performance declines, the pre -losing person is accumulated pledged business

The market shocks directly impact the performance of the brokerage firms. Data show that the performance of nine A -share listed brokers who have disclosed semi -annual performance forecast has declined across the board, and net profit decreases from 60%to 80%year -on -year. Pacific Securities and Central Plains Securities are expected to record losses.

In the first half of 2022, Pacific Securities is expected to achieve a net profit of -10 billion yuan to -060 million yuan, and the loss is mainly caused by the impairment of assets. The data shows that Pacific Securities will accounted for about 315 million yuan in asset impairment in the first half of the year, which affects the company's net profit of about 237 million yuan. The main reason is that the stock price of pledged stocks continued to decline and caused the company to accounted for asset impairment preparation.

In terms of Central Plains Securities, it is estimated that the net profit in the first half of 2022 is -125 million yuan. The reasons for the pre -losses include the significant fluctuations in the stock market, the company's investment business revenue decreased year -on -year; the project's project is periodically, the underwriting business revenue decreases year -on -year, and the company's stock pledge has provided credit impairment losses.

Many performance forecasts show that in the first half of this year, Oriental Securities is expected to achieve net profit of 550 million yuan to 660 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 76%to 80%; Hongta Securities is expected to achieve a net profit of 326 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 56.30%; West China Securities is expected to be expected Realizing net profit of 2.70 million yuan-3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.67%-70.97%;

Northeast Securities is expected to achieve a net profit of 207 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 70.61%; Dongxing Securities is expected to achieve a net profit of 273 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 63%; Tian Southwest Securities is expected to achieve a net profit of about 137 million yuan to 240 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of about 65 %To 80%; Wind Securities is expected to achieve net profit of 46 million yuan to 56 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 85.95%to 83.14%.

In the first half of the year, the external geopolitical conflict and the domestic epidemic repeatedly disrupted the stock market. The A -shares appeared on the stamping market several times at the end of January, mid -March and at the end of April. There is quite a gap. Data show that from the beginning of the year to June 30, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the GEM index fell 6.63%, 13.20%, and 15.41%, respectively. As of the end of the first half of the year, the total market value of the A -share market was about 9.12 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.42 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 5.61%. In the first half of 2022, A shares were still active, with a turnover of 11.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.53%year -on -year.

Many securities firms mentioned in the performance trailer that due to the fluctuations in the securities market, the company's fair value change and investment income decreased year -on -year in the first half of 2022, and the income of self -operated business decreased significantly, resulting in a decline in performance; Obviously picked up, but the overall performance was still dragged down by the first quarter.

Although the broader market fluctuates and drags the business, self -employed, but benefits from the rich IPO reserve project, and the head securities firms still benefit a lot. The "China Capital Market Rankings in the First Half of 2022" released by Bloomberg shows that in the first half of 2022, the A -share market issued a total of 178 IPOs (first public offering), with raised funds of nearly US $ 40 billion, and the financing amount hit the first half of 2011 in 2011 IPO issued a record high at the same time. Compared with the global market, the A -share market financing accounts for 39%of the global IPO financing, becoming the world's largest IPO market. Oriental Fortune Chioce data shows that in the first half of the year, 176 companies in the A -share market were launched, with a total of 255.382 billion yuan of funds. Compared with the same period last year, the number of IPO companies decreased by 90, and the scale of fundraising funds increased by 38.6 billion yuan. From the perspective of the initial underwriting amount, "Three Middle Schools and One Hua" and "Shanghai Double Heroes" occupy the top six in the market. Among them, the number of CITIC Securities, CITIC Construction Investment and CICC have 24, 21 and 14, respectively, with a fundraising amount of 47.902 billion yuan, 33.973 billion yuan, and 28.705 billion yuan. For 14, the amount of fundraising was 217.83 and 157.23, respectively; the number of Huatai joint underwriters was 12, with a fundraising amount of 13.249 billion yuan. The remaining securities firms funded for less than 10 billion yuan.

CITIC Construction Investment's non -silver team believes that the long -term angle is still optimistic about the three main lines of "creating an aircraft carrier, wealth management, and Internet brokerage": first, the long -term optimism with the ability to expand, transaction, and product creation; A company with strong service capabilities and public offering asset management has a scale effect; the third is to be optimistic about the emergence of the Internet securities business.

Oriental wealth is a solo show

Compared with the pre -reduction of the common performance in the industry, the leading wealth of the Internet brokerage dealers "showed its own". Oriental Fortune released in the semi -annual unreasonable financial statements released in 2022, the company's current revenue achieved revenue of 4.177 billion yuan, an increase of 34.14%year -on -year; net profit was 2.848 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 37.52%.

In terms of business, Oriental Wealth took the net income of handling fees and commission as the largest business. In the first half of the year, revenue achieved 2.441 billion yuan, an increase of 29.98%year -on -year. Haitong International pointed out that in the first half of the year, the average daily stock -based transaction value of the market was 1.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5%year -on -year. The growth rate of Oriental Wealth Health Fee and commission income was far higher than the growth rate of the average daily stock transaction amount of the market. It is expected that the company's brokerage business market The occupation rate continues to increase.

Furthermore, Oriental Wealth achieved a net interest income of 960 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 25.33%year -on -year. Data show that in the first half of this year, Oriental Fortunes fused the balance of 37.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.7%from the end of the previous year; the balance of the two city and Shenzhen cities in the same period decreased by 12.5%compared with the end of the previous year, showing that the market share of the two financial stocks of Dongcai Securities remained stable. Essence

In addition, Oriental Wealth's self -employed income increased against the market, and trading financial assets increased significantly. In the first half of 2022, the net income of Dongcai Securities Investment (including changes in fair value) 650 million yuan, an increase of 58.6%year -on -year; and the market in the same period fluctuated sharply, and the cumulative A total of A total of A total of 9.5%.

Haitong International believes that Oriental Fortunes are sitting on head platforms such as Oriental Wealth Network and Tiantian Fund Network. The C -side customers have strong viscosity and diversified demand. Improve performance stability; Furthermore, the securities business has expanded rapidly based on its own traffic advantage and low commission strategies. The thickening of convertible bonds has also driven the development of the business of Liangrong, and the profit growth rate is significantly higher than that of the same industry. Finally, benefiting from the rapid development of wealth management, the blueprint of the big wealth management is becoming clearer.

In terms of market value, Oriental Fortune reached a peak at the end of last year that it once exceeded the 400 billion yuan mark, throwing the "British Brother" CITIC Securities behind it. However, in the first quarter of the A -share call, Oriental Wealth's stock price plummeted. As of July 19, it closed at 23.30 yuan/share, with a market value of 307.9 billion yuan.

While sitting on head platforms such as Oriental Wealth Network and Tiantian Fund, Oriental Wealth continues to expand its business. In June of this year, Oriental Wealth Announcement stated that its subsidiary Oriental Wealth Securities' securities investment fund custody qualifications have been approved by the CSRC. Since then, Oriental Fortune has become the 29th securities company in the securities industry to obtain fund custody business exhibition.

Liu Xinqi, chief analyst at Cathay -Jun'an Non -Bank of the Bank, said that the services provided by the public fund custody business are relatively homogeneous. When choosing the custodian, the fund company considers its fund sales capabilities, such as China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Fund custody also ranks among the same ranking, and Oriental Wealth is expected to expand its custody business with a strong fund sales capacity.

It is worth noting that the growth momentum of Oriental Wealth's inverse city is reflected in the first quarter report. In the first quarter of 2022, in the context of the large -scale callback of the city and stepping on the city, Oriental Fortune's first quarter revenue and net profit increased by 10.61%and 13.63%year -on -year. According to the China Securities Association data, Oriental Fortune's revenue, net profit and net capital in 2021 ranked 19th, 13th and 16th in the industry.

When the performance is good, shareholders will not hesitate to increase their holdings. In March of this year, Oriental Fortune announced that with a creditor's rights of 15.773 billion yuan and 232 million yuan in cash, the capital increased capital to the subsidiary Oriental Wealth Securities, with a total capital increase of 16.05 billion yuan. After the completion of the capital increase, Oriental Fortune's shareholding on Oriental Wealth Securities increased from 99.93%to 99.95%; Oriental Wealth Securities Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. held the remaining 0.05%of Oriental Wealth Securities. Foreign investment bank performance loss

In fact, in the background of the global capital market, foreign investment banks' performance in the first half of the year is also unsatisfactory. Goldman Sachs announced its second quarter of profits on July 18, a year -on -year decrease of about 47%to $ 2.9 billion; revenue fell 23%to $ 11.9 billion. Bank of America's profits decreased by 32%to $ 6.2 billion, while revenue increased by 6%to $ 22.7 billion. In addition, JPMorgan Chase revenue fell 29%to $ 8.2 billion in the second quarter, while Morgan Stanley's revenue decreased by 30%to $ 2.4 billion.

In 2021, Wall Street made a lot of money in the fiery market of IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, and Spac, but the coldness of the capital market in 2022 directly affects the performance of foreign investment banks.

Wind data shows that in the first half of 2022, there were 122 IPO raising incidents of the US stock market, a decrease of 78.63%year -on -year; the total financing amount was 16.5 billion US dollars, a year -on -year decrease of 91.45%. In terms of Spac, in the first half of 2022, the number of SPACs in the US stocks was 70, with a total financing of 11.9 billion US dollars; the two data in the same period in 2021 were 358 and $ 111.9 billion, respectively. In the second quarter of this year, the number of IPO projects in U.S. stocks was 43, with a raised amount of 4.2 billion US dollars, a year -on -year decrease of 75%and 92%.

In addition, under the shadow of China -stock shares, few Chinese companies went to the United States to go public. In the first half of 2022, only 4 Chinese companies realized listing in the United States, namely the United States and China International Medical, Austin Optoelectronics Technology, Zhongyang Finance and Golden Sun Education; there were 34 in the same period last year.

In the first half of 2022, high -enterprise inflation continued to damage corporate profits, and the Federal Reserve's "Eagle" interest rate hike further exacerbated the market's concerns about the decline of the US economy. Earlier, the Federal Reserve raised 25 basis points in March, 50 basis points in May, and 75 basis points in June. At present, the market is generally expected to continue to raise interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points in July. The Federal Reserve also announced the opening of a shrinkage from June 1, with an initial limit of US $ 47.5 billion per month, and a monthly limit of $ 95 billion per month after three months.

Xu Gao, the chief economist of BOC International Securities, recently wrote that it was the Fed's "shrinkage" that scared US stocks recently. Xu Gao believes that in June of this year, the Fed has reducing its asset scale and is quickly selling U.S. Treasury bonds, including inflation preservation government bonds, which has significantly pushed the real interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds. As the increase in U.S. stocks is negatively related to the real interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds, the Fed's shrinkage has put pressure on the US stock market.

Data show that by June 30, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S & P 500 Index and the Nasdaq index fell 15.3%, 20.6%, and 29.5%from the beginning of the year.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of Morgan Chase, said that geopolitical tension, high inflation, decline in consumer confidence, uncertainty of interest rates, unprecedented quantitative tightening and its impact on global liquidity are likely to be on the global economy at some time in the future. A negative impact was generated; it said that the scope of the result was "soft landing to hard landing", which was determined by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates to inhibit inflation.

CITIC Securities ’overseas strategy team pointed out in the report that high inflation and currency tightening superposition decline worries have ended the 13 -year -old cattle that has ended for 13 years. With the deterioration of the fundamentals, US stocks will continue to fall into a" recession "in the second half of the year. In terms of fundamental perspective, the recent US consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest history, and the personal savings rate has fallen to the level of the financial crisis; from the second quarter, many large American companies have announced their layoffs or suspended recruitment; The corporate capital expenditure and production capacity are impact, and the upwardlike of food prices will further squeeze the consumption of the residential department. Considering that the GDPNow is expected to be 0.0%in the second quarter, CITIC Securities has judged that the US economy will fall into decline and last for at least half a year since the second half of this year.

How does the S -fund that has been entrusted by the head PE, foreign investment, state -owned enterprises, and financial institutions has been admitted one after another, and the euro struggling with the ideal L9 trapped shaft storm struggle on the eve of the mass production delivery is changing the life of 340 million people?

- END -