Nancai fast comments: It is expected that international grain prices will return to rationality steadily in the second half of the year

On July 20, Liu Han, the head of the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, introduced at a press conference of the New National Office that in the first half of the year, the supply of key grain species in my country was sufficient, and the overall price fluctuations were not large. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the "200 Index 200 Index of Agricultural Products Wholesale Price" from January to June was 127.96, a year-on-year increase of 2.49 points. In the first half of this year, food prices fell by 0.4%year-on-year, affecting CPI by about 0.08 percentage points.

Although my country's agricultural product market faces some risk challenges in the country and international in the first half of the year, the supply of agricultural products has maintained a trend of stable price and stable. From the perspective of domestic production, summer grains have been harvested again, and the area of ​​autumn grains has increased steadily and growing well. Many favorable factors such as soybean oil expansion are a solid foundation for stable production. From the perspective of international food imports, from January to June, the cumulative imports of imports were 79.782 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. With the decline in international grain prices and the reduction of grain import costs, it is expected that domestic grain imports will increase steadily in the second half of the year. Recently, the decline in grain prices in the international market will have a positive impact on the import of agricultural products in my country and stabilizing domestic supply.

Recently, international grain prices have fallen in June. The prices of various agricultural products such as CBOT wheat have fallen sharply. Wheat prices have reached a new low of four months, while corn and soybeans are at the lowest level in the past five months. Since July, international grain prices have continued to decline, and wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice have fallen into a new low in early July. On July 5th, Midea corn set a new low price of 571 cents/puppet ear -like ear, which fell 30.75%over the year high, and the increase in the annual increase from positive to negative. On July 6, the minimum of 800.75 cents/puppet ear in the CBOT wheat plate fell to a new low of 6 months. Affected by the conflict of Russia and Ukraine, the US wheat increased by 65%during the year. At present, the US wheat has only 5.74%during the year, which is basically back to the level before the year. American soybeans also fell on July 5th to a new low of 1304 cents/puppet ear, which fell 26.91%over the year, and also returned to the level a year ago. The oil system represented by palm oil fell even more terrible. On July 6, BMD palm oil futures fell to 3735, which touched the low point in the past year, and it has fallen 47.95%from the high point during the year.

There are two main factors in the decline in global grain prices. One is that global currency tightening has suppressed rising grain prices. After the new crown epidemic, the world's major economies have formulated quantitative loose monetary policy. Especially developed economies such as the United States have implemented unlimited loose monetary policies. The risks have led to high prices of commodities such as food and energy. Facing the risk of inflation, since this year, countries have gradually implemented the quantitative and loose monetary policy. On June 16, the Fed announced a rate hike, raising the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, and the interest rate hike was the largest since 1994. The market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike inhibition have been reached an agreement, and commodities, especially grain prices, have fallen. Second, global food supply has gradually increased, and the situation of tight supply has gradually eased. With the harvest of summer grain in the northern hemisphere and the increase in farming and supply, the environmental giving supply of tight grain supply has continued to ease. At the end of June, with the increase in the area of ​​American corn planting, corn became the number one crop in the United States again, with inventory increased by 6%year -on -year, and the price of US corn fell nearly 5%that night. On July 12, the Ministry of Agriculture released the Agricultural Products Supply and Demand Report in July. The increase in corn inventory was much higher than the market expectations, which led to the increase in the factor factors again.

In sharp contrast to the shock international grain prices, my country's domestic grain market price has been relatively stable this year. Facing the tension international market, in the first half of the year, my country fully stabilized food production, strengthened the connection between vegetable production and sales, and attached importance to the protection and stable price of people's livelihood products. This year, the sowing area of ​​summer grain was 398 million mu, an increase of 0.3%, and achieved growth for two consecutive years. Summer harvest wheat has high output and good quality, and the production capacity of pigs is generally reasonable and abundant. Recently, the survival of the sow can be further increased. The production of cattle and sheep poultry eggs and vegetables and fruits is normal and supply is sufficient.

Faced with the ups and downs of the international market of agricultural products in the first half of the year, our grain import and export trade has stabilized. According to customs statistics, in the first half of 2022, my country's cumulative imports of grain crops were 79.782 million tons, a year -on -year decrease of 5.4%, and the import amount was 42.43 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.8%year -on -year. Among them, the cumulative import volume of soybeans was 46.284 million tons, a decrease of 5.4%year -on -year, and the import amount was US $ 30.07 billion, an increase of 18.4%year -on -year. In the first half of the year, the overall export of grain crops was 1.376 million tons, a year -on -year decrease of 18.6%, and the export value was 840 million US dollars, a year -on -year decrease of 8.5%. On the whole, my country's domestic food supply is stable and the degree of dependence on imports has declined. However, due to the rise in grain prices, import costs have further increased. After the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the average food prices in my country rose by about 1.4%, far below 7.5%to 9.5%of the US and European countries.

In the second half of the year, the situation of international food prices is expected to gradually stabilize, and grain prices will steadily return to rationality. From the second half of the year to 2023, the planting area and output of grain crops such as soybeans and corn will increase significantly, and the price of grain may decline further. The decline in international grain prices will have a positive impact on the import of agricultural products in my country and stabilizing my country's food. By expanding food imports, adjusting domestic food supply, enriching food reserves, enhancing national food price regulation and ensuring national food security. For the use of grain, the decline in the price of imported grains can reduce costs, expand the profitability of enterprises, and increase the market competitiveness of agricultural products and enterprises. In addition, the decline in international grain prices will also alleviate the pressure of rising upstream and downstream agricultural products and food prices, and maintain the stability of my country's agricultural product market. (Li Chunding is a professor at the School of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, the director of the Department of Economic and Trade, and Zheng Fei is the scientific research assistant of the Institute of International Economics of the School of Economics and Management of China. article.)

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