Dr. Dr. Evil and Disaster Science and Disaster (15) 丨 Can't predict the earthquake with macro abnormalities

In the practice of seismic predictions, macro abnormalities are often used as one of the important judgments. The reason is that in many earthquakes, there is a macro abnormal phenomenon before the earthquake occurred, especially after a large earthquake. The example is vivid and complicated.

However, there may not be an earthquake in macro abnormalities, that is, there is no inevitable connection between the emergence of macro abnormalities and the occurrence of earthquakes. So far, no earthquake will occur after some kind of macro abnormality occurs, nor can there be some kind of macro abnormality before the earthquake occurs. Therefore, even if there is a certain relationship between the macro abnormality and the occurrence of the earthquake, there is no causality between them, and we cannot predict the earthquake by macro abnormalities.

From mid -May to early June 2002, in Xichang City, Pig County, Mianning County, Huili County, Yuexi County, Tibetan Autonomous County, Xidi, Ningnan County, Huidong County, and Yunnan Province in Sichuan Province Qiaojia County and other places have more than 80 groundwater and animal abnormalities in continuous and continuously, and abnormal groundwater is abnormal: springs of springs or dramas decrease, deep water well water overflow or self -spraying, significant decline in well water, well water water Ghost (turning yellow, white, black, green, etc.), the taste of the well water or odor, and the ground rustic and qi, bubbling, etc.; Small animals are abnormal in groups of mice moving or running around Group migration, snake climbing, transparent small worms creeping, or fish -raising ponds jumping shore, family dogs screaming, swallow nights out outdoor wires, pigeons break through nylon nets, group cockroaches commit suicide, etc. Essence

The China Earthquake Administration and the relevant provincial and municipal earthquake departments have sent professional and technical personnel many times to track and implement it. There are more than 40 abnormal phenomena that have been verified or observed on the spot.

Through analysis of abnormal space -time distribution, it is found that the high number of abnormal quantities appears from May 31 to June 6. The abnormal distribution shows the difference in space, and the direction of the display has a certain corresponding correspondence with the break zone. The Anning River Earthquake Belt in Xichang area has been considered the danger of a large earthquake for many years. It has received special attention from relevant departments and professional and technical personnel. In addition, in April and May, they also occurred in Pig County and Budao County respectively. Earthquakes, the rumors of a magnitude 6 earthquake caused social panic once, which caused social confusion and casualties. However, the earthquake in the waiting has never come, and the emergence of large -scale macro abnormalities has not accompanied the earthquake.

The macro abnormality is directly associated with the earthquake. It is unscientific to think that there will be an earthquake. Therefore, we need to treat the macro abnormality scientifically and rationally.

Supply unit: Jinan Earthquake Monitoring Center

Edit: Lin Peng

Final trial: Zheng Weiguo

- END -