The world's largest producer policy has changed, and the international palm oil period still has a long -term downward space

21st Century Business Herald reporter Shu Xiaoting Beijing Beijing report

On July 18, local time, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) said that if Indonesia wants to reduce palm oil inventory to normal level, it is necessary to export about 6 million tons of palm oil before the end of August.

Earlier, officials of the Ministry of Finance of Indonesia said they had canceled export taxes for all palm oil products. This policy came into effect on July 15 and maintained until August 31.

Guangzhou Futures Agricultural Researcher Tang Chuxuan told the 21st Century Business Herald that Indonesia has adopted a palm oil export fee reduction policy to continue to stimulate palm oil exports and relieve the pressure of swelling libraries. Although Indonesia canceled the export ban policy in May and continued to adjust the policy and let go of exports in June and July, its pressure on the swelling library has not yet fully eased. From the data point of view, Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May reached about 7.2 million tons, and the market was estimated to be more than 8 million tons in June.

Affected by the latest policies, Malaysia's Derivative Exchange (BMD) benchmark palm oil options have fallen. "With the implementation of the policy, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the export volume of Indonesia's palm oil can relieve inventory pressure. If the inventory is restored to normal level, Indonesia may continue to impose tariffs or export fees in the future. International palm oil futures are limited. "Tang Chuxuan pointed out.

Indonesia's adjustment policy to alleviate the pressure of swelling libraries

A few days ago, Indonesia announced the cancellation of export taxes for all palm oil products. Previously, in order to ensure domestic supply and the price of domestic edible oil, Indonesia implemented a palm oil export ban on April 28 to suspend export palm oil series products. This ban was maintained for less than 1 month. On May 23, comprehensive consideration of palm oil inventory, oil palm fruit growers, and palm oil export revenue on the economic impact on the economic impact. 10,000 tons of edible oil. In June, the Indonesian government formulated an export acceleration plan to reduce inventory and stimulate palm oil trade.

Hui Wenwei, an analyst at Huishang Futures Oil Oil, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the Palm Oil Export Tax Tax of Palm Oil exports was to further alleviate the pressure of palm oil swelling in China.

According to the data of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) on July 15, due to the three -week export ban, Indonesia's palm oil exports fell by 68%from the previous month to 678,000 tons; , Increased by 19%month -on -month, an increase of 135.5%year -on -year.

In the case of increased inventory pressure, the processing plants and refinery plants were reduced due to the full oil storage tank, which slowed down or stopped purchasing fresh fruit skewers, resulting in the decrease of palm oil production to 3.41 million tons in May, and 20%of the month -on -month output. At the same time, the purchase price of fresh fruit skewers has plummeted, which has damaged the income of oil palm growers. "Multiple factors are superimposed, prompting the Indonesian government to introduce policies to encourage exports and increase consumption, and accelerate the pressure of digestion of databases." Guo Wenwei said.

Tang Chuxuan also told reporters that due to factors such as the previous export policy and the shortage of port ships, Indonesia's high inventory of palm oil has not been alleviated. In addition, the current number of palm oil production increase cycles, the pressure of Indonesia's swelling library has intensified, and urgently hopes to further stimulate exports and fully release them. Domestic inventory.

As far as the effect of the export tax of palm oil export taxes in the next and a half months, Guo Wenwei pointed out that the reference price of Mao Palm oil (CPO) in July was set at $ 1615.83/ton, and the maximum brown export tax was executed for $ 200/ton. At present, palm oil exports The tax amount accounts for a relatively high FOB quotation. The export tax of $ 200/ton will be exempted to the Indonesian FOB quotation in recent months, and the export business reduction quotation is promoted by tax reduction to be reduced to a faster digestion of high inventory.

In addition to adjusting palm oil export policies, Indonesia also announced that it has implemented the B35 biological diesel mixing plan from July 20. The content of palm oil fuel in the upcoming biological diesel has increased from 30%to 35%.

Guo Wenwei told reporters that the proportion of raw firewood mixing this time, palm oil raw firewood is expected to increase 1.5 million tons/year. During the year, palm oil -made biological diesel (PME) mixing demand increases an additional 730,000 liters. The increase of more than 100,000 tons of demand for the inventory of 4 million tons than in the same period of previous years is really a spectacular cup of water. It cannot be relieved of long water, but it is conducive to reshaping the long -term palm oil balance table.

International palm oil futures price mid- or downward or downward

In recent times, the price of international palm oil has declined sharply, reflecting the impact of Indonesia's palm oil export ban and export acceleration plan implementation.

Last week, the price of palm oil in Malaysia fell to the lowest level in a year. Since Indonesia announced the end of the export ban on May 19, Malaysia's benchmark palm oil futures have plummeted by 43%, and on July 14 to the low point at a market of 3489 Linkt ($ 783.16) per ton.

Indonesia accounts for more than 1/2 of global palm oil exports. Since the beginning of this year, Indonesia's palm oil policy has changed frequently, disturbing palm oil supply and price. In the past year, the supply of vegetable oil markets tightly due to poor Canadian rapeseed output, increased domestic use in US soybean oil, and Russian -Ukraine's conflict caused by the production and export of Ukrainian sunflower oil, boosting the demand and price of palm oil. At the same time, Malaysia's labor shortage and Malaysia and Indonesia's use of biofuels have supported palm oil prices.

At present, with the increase in palm oil exports in Indonesia, Malaysia's palm oil exports have declined and inventory is fixed. According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Commission (MPOB) on July 12, the Malaysian Palm Oil Industry Performance Report on July 12, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June reached 1.66 million tons, an increase of 8.76%month -on -month; exports were 1.194 million tons, a decrease of 13.26%month -on -month. At the same time, as of July 15, the Indonesian government has issued 2.84 million tons of palm oil export permits. "In the next one and a half months, there will be 6 million tons of palm oil exports to release the inventory to normal level. The huge inventory to exports will be conducive to the increase in inventory of the global palm oil importing country, and the supply and demand structure will be loose." Guo Wenwei said.

Tang Chuxuan also pointed out that from the fundamentals, the key to Indonesia's palm oil is sufficient, and the key is whether the export is smooth. Malaysia is currently in the growth cycle of palm oil, but the growth rate is relatively slow. This is mainly due to the failure of labor shortage. The subsequent output recovery depends on the labor situation.

A statement issued by Malaysian Estate Owners ’ASSOCiation in June estimates that the workers' gap in Malaysia's oil palm industry is 120,000. According to statistics from MPOB, the total number of employment in the planting department in May 2022 decreased by 6.2%year -on -year.

In addition to considering fundamental factors, from a macro level, international palm oil prices are also affected by international oil prices and Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Guo Wenwei said that in the past month, factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, macro -mood and pessimistic pressure, and the release of exports of Indonesia's swelling library, international palm oil prices have fallen rapidly, while bean oil is tightly inventory and the growth stage of the new season growth stage The weather is worried, the decline is weaker than the palm oil, and the spread of palm oil and bean palm oil returns to the normal range. Recently, Biden visited the Middle East and did not get a clear statement of crude oil production. The Federal Reserve ’s sharp interest rate hike was expected to rebound under the U.S. dollar index, which caused the crude oil to rebound, the market sentiment improved, and the oil market stabilized.

Looking forward to the market outlook, Guo Wenwei said that international palm oil still has downward pressure in the later period. He explained that because Indonesia's accelerated palm oil exports and horse brown exports will be significantly affected, Malaysia's palm oil is expected to continue to accumulate library in July. The fundamentals of palm oil are still the pressure on the pressure of Indonesia's swelling library. In the air, palm oil prices will continue to be suppressed.

Tang Chuxuan also pointed out that comprehensive supply and demand fundamental and macro -factor factors are measured. The price of short -term international palm oil has fluctuated, and the overall decline in the medium and long term.

Domestic soybean oil resistance is higher than palm oil

According to official data, from January to June this year, China imported 560,000 tons of palm oil. From the perspective of annual demand, China generally needs to import 4 million tons of palm oil. Tang Chuxuan said that before the high price of palm oil, China's import demand has been greatly reduced. Now the price is adjusted, and the exports have been liberalized. China still has a large demand for replenishment. If the import profit of the oil plant has resumed, Indonesia's exports are smooth. It is expected that China will gradually increase palm oil imports.

Judging from the recent performance of overall oil in China, Tang Chuxuan pointed out that the decline of soybean oil will be higher than palm oil.

From the perspective of demand, China's domestic soybean oil consumption is about 16 million tons, and palm oil is about 5 million tons. The demand side has a certain support for soybean oil. From the perspective of supply, considering that in the early days, South American soybean production reduction and the current excellent rate of US soybean new work continued to decline, and the uncertainty of weather was supported from the cost of soybean oil from the cost side.

根据美国农业部国家农业统计局（NASS）7月18日发布的报告，截至7月17日当周，61%的美豆被评为良种至优种，低于前一周的62%，不过高60%in the same period last year. In terms of inventory, the amount of soybeans imported from China in the early stage was large, the amount of squeezing increased, and the soybean oil was slowly tired. However, due to the poor profits of oil plants, the import volume of soybeans in June has fallen sharply, and the overall purchase progress of the imported soybeans after July and August is slow. The decline in future imports will affect the tank of soybean oil.

In addition, the traditional Chinese oil consumption season is in the Mid -Autumn Festival and National Day, and the impact of the demand for oil preparation before the "double festival" before the "double festival".

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