"Scenery Unlimited" experts from the upstream of polycrystalline silicon card positions reminded the careful cycle

Our reporter Yao Yao's photovoltaic silicon price is constantly refreshing history. According to the latest price announced by the business agency, the price of polysilicon has continued to rise since January 2022, and has risen to 275,000 yuan/ton on July 18, which has continued to break the highest price since the statistics of business in June 2020. In this regard, Lin Boqiang, Dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told a reporter from the Securities Daily: "The development potential of the polysilicon market is beyond doubt. On the one hand, the price increase is driven by demand, and on the other hand, it has also superimposed the rising price of commodity prices around the world. Of course, there are also speculative components to play a role. "Price increase is just a side of the development status of the polysilicon industry. In the upper reaches of the photovoltaic industry with "unlimited scenery", the polysilicon industry is continuing to be affected by the positive effects of favorable policies and continuous increase. After years of unremitting efforts, Chinese polysilicon companies have gradually occupied the leading advantage worldwide, the industry concentration has continued to improve, and its performance has improved significantly. People in the industry are generally optimistic about the huge development potential of the industry. Long Hao, chairman of the polycrystalline silicon industry, has continued to bless the chairman of Jinding Assets, said to the reporter of the Securities Daily: "The price of polysilicon raw materials is also an important reason. Silicine silicon is an important raw material for polysilicon synthesis. In recent years Metal silicon prices continue to resonate, triggering the continuous rise in polysilicon products. Of course, from the perspective of demand, polysilicon is an important part of photovoltaic components. The dual -control policy of downstream photovoltaic demand and energy consumption is also an important reason for the price of polysilicon. " "The continuous increase in domestic favorable policies, and the accelerated replacement of traditional energy in Europe and the United States market since 2022, has made the global photovoltaic installation demand continued to exceed expectations. Researcher Wu Qihong told reporters. Since the beginning of this year, the photovoltaic industry's favorable policies have continued to increase. On May 25, the "Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Further Activating the Effective Investment of Assets in the State Council" proposed that if it is intended to invest in new projects to build new projects, it will give priority to supporting comprehensive transportation and logistics hubs, large clean energy bases and other key areas projects. On June 1, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, and the Ministry of Finance jointly released the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" Renewable Energy Development Plan ", which proposed that it will vigorously promote the development of wind and photovoltaic power generation bases, including overall planning promotion Construction of on -site wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases; on June 29, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Development and Reform Commission, and the Development and Reform Commission jointly released the "Industrial Efficacy Promotion Plan", proposing to accelerate the diversification and greenness of industrial energy. Support qualified industrial enterprises and industrial parks to build industrial green micro -power grids, and accelerate the development and operation of distributed photovoltaic, decentralized wind power, high -efficiency heat pumps, residual heat voltage use, smart energy management and control, etc., and promote more efficient and complementary use. When the photovoltaic industry is in full swing in China, geopolitical conflicts have triggered the European energy crisis. In order to improve the current status of energy dependence, European countries have turned their attention to new energy represented by photovoltaic power generation. CICC stated that according to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (SPE) statistics, in 2021, Europe achieved 26GW of photovoltaic installation machines, and the annualized growth rate of new installations in the past three years was 26.4%; %To 39GW. It is estimated that Chinese components will increase by 60%to 100%year -on -year in 2022. The concentration of the industry continued to increase the "big order" of more than 100 billion yuan. When the fundamentals of polysilicon continued to improve, the companies in the industry also increased the pace of expansion and production. On July 18th, a special transformer said in the question of investor questions that the company has built a high -pure polysilicon production base with an annual output of 100,000 tons in Xinjiang; the annual output of 100,000 tons of high -pure polysilicon project in Inner Mongolia has begun to debug the production line one by one. It is expected to reach its yield in the fourth quarter; the annual output of 100,000 tons of the first phase of high -end electronic silicone projects of the quasi -East East is under construction. With the gradual expansion of the high -quality production capacity of leading enterprises in my country, the polysilicon industry is developing in a favorable direction in the concentration. According to the statistics of the China Nonferrous Metal Silicon Industry Branch, the total production capacity of the top 100,000 tential -level enterprises produced in my country produced in 2021 reached 513,000 tons, accounting for 98.8%of the domestic total production capacity. Among them, Daquan Energy, Tongwei Co., Ltd., Poly GCL, Xinding Energy, and Oriental Hope 50,000 tons of enterprises with a total of about 441,000 tons in 2021, accounting for 85.0%of the total domestic polysilicon capacity. From the overall situation of the global polysilicon industry, according to the output ranking, the top five polysilicon companies in the world in 2021 are Daquan Energy, Tongwei, Poly GCL, New Special Energy, and Vacker in Germany. The proportion of polysilicon output reached 71.6%. In 2021, China's polycrystalline silicon output reached 490,000 tons, accounting for about 77.3%of the world's output. It can be seen that Chinese companies have quite strength on global polysilicon tracks. It can be said that China's photovoltaic industry has basically got rid of the situation where the upstream crystal silicon material relies on imports. According to the latest announcement of listed companies, in less than half a month, a number of polysilicon companies have obtained more than 100 billion yuan of silicon contracts. The good fundamentals, combined with the highly concentrated industry background, have continued to improve the performance of the polysilicon concept sector.

On the evening of July 1st, Shuangliang Energy -saving subsidiary Shuangliang Silicon Materials (Baotou) Co., Ltd. and four subsidiaries under Tongwei Co., Ltd. signed the "Polycrystalline Silicon Purchase Framework Agreement". The procurement of about 222,500 tons of polycrystalline silicon material, which is expected to be procurement of about 56 billion yuan. On the evening of July 12, Shuangliang Energy Saving Announcement stated that all -funded subsidiaries Shuangliang Silicon Materials (Baotou) Co., Ltd. recently worked with Xinte Energy Co., Ltd. The company and the new Silicon -based new material Co., Ltd. signed the "Polycrystory Silicon Strategic Cooperation Sale Agreement". The contract stipulates that the buyer is expected to purchase 201,900 tons of polycrystalline silicon materials from the seller from 2023 to 2030. It is expected that the purchase amount is about 58.470 billion yuan. Getting a large order will inevitably thicken the profit of the corporate. According to the latest announcement of the first half of 2022, as of July 19, 15 of the 27 companies in the polysilicon sector have announced the preview of the first half of the year. Thirteen companies such as Jing'ao Technology and Shuangliang Energy Energy Energy have achieved pre -joy. Taking the Siliconist Enterprise Tongwei as an example, the company's net profit in the first half of this year was 12 billion yuan to 12.5 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 304.62%to 321.48%. Long Yan said, "At present, domestic polysilicon companies have achieved rapid expansion with the help of dual carbon policies. The investment boom in the silicon material market has risen. With the gradual concentration of the industry, the production capacity and quality of polysilicon enterprises will be further improved. Gathering to advantageous companies, the polycrystal silicon leader listed company is worth holding for a long time. " When looking forward to the subsequent development of the polysilicon market, Liu Youhua, deputy director of the Wealth Research Department of the Wheel Network, told the reporter of the Securities Daily: "In the short term, the orders of polysilicon enterprises are very sufficient, and even a super signing. At the same time For the reasons for the maintenance in the third quarter, the increase in polysilicon production is very limited. Considering the strong demand for midstream and lower reaches, the trend of polysilicon is expected to continue and support the price of polysilicon. The view of the deputy director of the expert committee, Lu Chao, is more cautious. He said, "The supply of polysilicon is mainly based on long -order transactions, and the supply of retail markets has been insufficient. Make polysilicon retail prices continue to rise. In the fourth quarter of this year, the supply of polysilicon in the polysilicon is large, and the price is expected to be reduced, but the adjustment amplitude will not be too large. In 2023, the expansion capacity increase will be significantly greater than the demand increase. If the surplus, the price will drop sharply. "Lin Boqiang said," Although the polysilicon industry has long -term development potential, there are also cycles like other industries. "Picture | Site Cool Hero Bao Tu.com production | Zhou Wenrui review | Zhao Ziqiang editor | Bai Baoyu's final trial | Peng Chunlai

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