Can lithium carbonate in the second half of the year be lithium ore stocks "growth"?

Tong Peng Chengdu reported by the 21st Century Capital Research Institute

The performance growth is strong and elastic. In the first half of the year, the lithium mines with a median increase of more than 600%in the first half of the year are still the heavy positions of some fund managers this year.

However, since the cumulative increase in lithium ore stocks has been too considerable since the end of April, the predictions of the market for the market for the market for 2023 have improved. As of July 20, the Wind Lithium Mine Index's maximum retracement was nearly 14%, and the retracement of individual stocks was even more obvious.

However, the 21st Century Capital Research Institute noticed that the expectations including third -party research institutions and sellers have begun to loosen. It generally believes that under the cost of imported mines and the demand for rigidity in the second half of the year, the prices of products such as lithium carbonate are expected to regain the rise and even challenge the high point of 520,000 yuan/ton in the early stage.

If the above -mentioned industry is expected to be fulfilled, it will mean that some lithium salt factories have continued to rise in the background of the high base in the first half of the year, which may lead to the re -adjustment of the entire sector's expectations of the entire sector.

The contradiction between the mine end and lithium salt integrated

Similar to other cyclical industries, lithium salt prices are positively related to corporate profits.

In the context of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the industry is in a state of sharp growth. According to statistics, except for China Mining Resources (002738.SZ), other major lithium salt producers in the second quarter were expanded on a circular.

However, the factors that measure the high and low profit margin In addition to the cost of raw materials, this is the key to affecting the industry's profit margin in the second half of the year.

From the perspective of lithium concentrate prices, the auction price of Australian miners PILBARA is still at a high of 6,000 US dollars.

The last time was the seventh auction launched on July 13th. The transaction price was $ 6188/ton. The form of high premium obtained exclusive purchase is obtained without auction.

It should be pointed out that considering that most of the local ore resources are locked through shares, package sales, etc., Pilbara is one of the few ore suppliers that can be sold through market -oriented.

This makes the above auction transaction price very strong, and the delivery time is relatively lagging. For example It can also be regarded as "long -term price".

Because of this, PILBARA's previous auctions have also led to the rise in the price of Australian Lithium Strong Mine.

Statistics of Huaxi Securities Yan Rong's team showed that 2021Q4 and 2022Q1, the Australian Lithium Essence Mineral Syndrome prices were US $ 1600-1800/ton, $ 2500-3,000/ton, almost doubled from the previous month. The long-term cooperative price is about $ 5000-5,500/ton.

According to the quotation provided by SMM, on July 20, the price of 6%quality lithium concentrate China was $ 4900-5100/ton.

In the above background, the import price of lithium concentrate in the second half of the year will still be highly raised, and this will squeeze the profit margin of most domestic lithium salt manufacturers.

Based on the cost of $ 6188/ton, the production cost of lithium carbonate obtained by each institution is between 439,000 yuan and 450,000 yuan (including VAT) per ton.

Up to now, the average price of domestic industrial and battery -level lithium carbonate markets is only 460,000 yuan/ton and 480,000 yuan/ton. It is equivalent to production according to the $ 6,000 lithium concentrate, and the profit of lithium salt mill has been minimal.

Of course, in the actual operation process, lithium salt companies can smooth the company's cost curve through low -cost raw materials inventory.

For example, in the 4th quarter of 2021, the purchase price of lithium concentrates was $ 2,000 per ton, and the purchase cost in the second quarter of this year was $ 5,000, and the average cost was $ 3,500.

The 21st Century Economic Herald reporter learned from a lithium salt company in Sichuan that in June this year, there are still some lithium concentrates purchased in 2021. At the same time, the raw materials were continuously reserved in the first half of the year. Low.

However, the above -mentioned raw material management plan cannot fundamentally solve the problem. The low -cost raw material inventory always has a day of use. Lithium concentrates continue to rise, which will also make the cost curve of the lithium salt factory relying on Changxie's imports rising.

In summary, the 21st Century Capital Research Institute believes that at this stage, the price of lithium salt is only subject to the recovery stage of the demand side. In addition, the previous low -cost raw material inventory has not been fully consumed, and the overall profitability is acceptable. Balanced state, but under the squeezing effect of the cost side, the balance is destined to continue for a long time.

In the second half of the year, the "window period" is "window period"

There are two choices that break the above balance. One is the price reduction of imported mines, and the other is the price of lithium salt. So that the lithium salt link can ensure its own profit space.

Compared to the strong ore ending, it is obviously the second possibility. From the perspective of the price trend of lithium carbonate and other products in the past year, the second half of the year may also enter the "window period" of price adjustment.

The rising cycle of lithium salt in this round of duration is in the bottoming stage in 2020. The industry's profitability was rapidly repaired in 2021, and in 2022, it showed a trend of further rising.

Among them, except for 2017, the prices of lithium salt in the second and third quarters of other years have not performed very well in the second and third quarters of other years, and it shows the more obvious characteristics of "seasonal" fluctuations. The reason behind is the supply end elasticity caused by weather factors.

Taking Yanhu shares as an example, although the production of autumn and winter has been achieved through technology in recent years, the overall production capacity is obviously not as good as the release in the second and third quarters.

The output data of lithium carbonate tracked by Baichuan Yingfu showed that in January and February this year, the monthly output of Qinghai was in the early 5,000 tons, and it increased to 6,000 tons in March and April. By June this year, it has increased significantly to more than 8,000 tons.

Different from previous years, in addition to the seasonal fluctuations of the above -mentioned salt lake production on the relationship between supply and demand, the second quarter of this year was also affected by the occasional incident of the new energy vehicle industry chain, which led to the weakening of the demand end. Faced with a certain amount of storage pressure.

The 21st Century Capital Research Institute found that from the database of a third -party research institution, it was found that from the beginning of the year to March 11, the inventory of the lithium carbonate social factory has always been in the stage of decline, and then rose slightly to the end of May this year.

The above database samples are composed of many domestic lithium -salt enterprises in China, which has strong reference significance. At the same time, the above -mentioned inventory change data is basically consistent with the change in the price change node of lithium carbonate.

According to Baichuan Yingfu data, during the decline in inventory, the average price of lithium carbonate rose from 280,000 yuan per ton to nearly 520,000 yuan. During the rise of inventory, lithium carbonate dropped from 520,000 yuan to about 475,000 yuan.

At the end of May and early June, the demand for new energy vehicles gradually recovered, the inventory data dropped slightly, and the price of lithium carbonate began to loosen and rebound.

Ma Rui, chief analyst of the SMM lithium industry, holds a similar judgment. "In early 2022, the domestic lithium carbonate was in the inventory stage, and the import reduction of imports also caused the degree of deepening of lithium carbonate deepening. Restore ... Under the supply and demand of supply increase and weakened demand, the domestic lithium carbonate market has a brief reversal of the accumulated library. "According to her prediction, in the second half of the year, the lithium carbonate market will maintain the rhythm of slightly de -warehouses. At the stage of grabbing, the demand at home and abroad will quickly rise, or the supply and demand gap will further increase, and the spot quotation of lithium carbonate will go up.

Compared with the cycle of lithium prices in this round, the rising nodes of lithium salt prices in 2020 and 2021 also started from mid -October 2020 and early August 2021, respectively.

Therefore, in the context of the overall supply and demand maintained during the year, the price of lithium salt is still possibly rising in the second half of the year. Of course, what is the extent, but also observe the degree of extent of the inventory and the recovery of the demand side.

Debate of growth stocks and cyclical stocks

In the second half of the year, the prosperity of the lithium salt industry will still maintain a high level, but the profitability between enterprises will be different from the cost end.

However, the above expectations can only solve the problem of corporate profitability. It can be known how much money the listed company can make this year. The secondary market sentiment, funds, expectations and other variables cannot be resolved.

Taking the Wind Lithium Mine Index as an example, the index contains most of the lithium mine stocks, showing a wide fluctuation trend in the past two years.

Although the investment logic of the entire sector is very smooth, "lithium salt rises -corporate profit increase -decline in valuation level -stock price rising", but the rise in lithium salt does not equal to the rise of lithium mine stocks. The trend.

For example, in the first quarter of 2021 and the end of April 2022 to the end of April 2022, the sector had two "deviations" of product prices and stock prices, which were more typical.

Earlier this year, the price of lithium salt such as lithium carbonate was like breaking bamboo, and the industry's profit margin expanded rapidly, but the stock price continued to adjust, and the deduction of multiple ingredient stocks exceeded 40%.

From the beginning of April, lithium salt has maintained a high level of stagnation, but the Wind Lithium Mine Index has achieved 78.4%of the rise. At the same time that it has a record high, the number of constituent stocks has increased by more than 100%during the period.

In the context of accumulating a considerable increase in the past two months, there have been differences in the secondary market. This can be seen from the increasing or decrease of the "lithium industry" in the second quarter of the funds.

In fact, the market parties should use cyclical stocks for lithium ore sectors, or the debate of the valuation standard of growth stocks has not stopped.

For example, the fund manager of a heavy warehouse lithium salt sector believes that the valuation standard of 20 to 30 times the growth shares should be adopted, and the valuation of many integrated lithium salt producers is only 10 times in the early age.

Another voice believes that with the release of new capacity in the past two years, the risk of high decline after the reversal of subsequent supply and demand relationships can only be given about 10 times the valuation as other cyclical industries.

The valuation standard is difficult to unify, and the cumulative increase in the cumulative increase in the past two months. After the recent high retreat of lithium mining stocks, it began to re -find the direction.

In this regard, the 21st Century Capital Research Institute believes that the prosperity of the lithium ore and lithium salt industry begins with the increase in demand brought by the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. It is impossible to grow more than 50%of the demand side like lithium salt.

At the same time, in the process of falling in the global commodity price in the second quarter, the price of lithium ore and lithium salt is stable, and the price operation is independent of the overall commodity market. Price fluctuations are more affected by their own supply and demand relationship.

From the above perspective, lithium mining stocks can be regarded as growth stocks in the short mid -term. In the later period, as new energy vehicles develop relatively mature, its valuation system can be converted into cyclical stocks.Of course, the dispute between growth and cyclical stocks is still difficult to speak at this stage. Only the price of the secondary market transaction is correct.

In addition, factors such as market emotions, funds, and expectations will also affect the valuation level of the secondary market, less than 10 times, or even less than 5 times that it must be safe.

The more extreme cyclical stock cases are COSCO Marine Control. The company is expected to be 4.02 yuan in the first half of the year, and the seller is expected to be 6.97 yuan in 2022.

However, by the closing on July 20, the company's stock price was only 14.5 yuan, which was equivalent to only 2.08 times the valuation.

- END -