In July, LPR "does not move for soldiers", and there is still room for low -reduction in 5 years

Since the decline of 15 basis points in May 2022, LPR has maintained 4.45%for two consecutive months; 1 -year LPR has remained unchanged at a level of 3.7%since January 2022.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that MLF's parity continues to do with the bank's net interest difference, and the LPR quotation remained unchanged in July.

He believes that from the perspective of LPR quotations of more than 5 years, the decline in the early 15bp is beyond expectations, driving the sales of real estate sales; considering that the downward and stable growth pressure of real estate are still large, the LPR quotation of more than 5 years is still possible. The MLF interest rate is moderately lowered while the interest rate is stable.

Why remain unchanged?

In August 2019, the central bank promoted the market -oriented reform of loan interest rates. After the reform, the LPR shall be quoted by the loan interest rates performed by each quotation in accordance with the loan interest rate performed on the highest quality customers on the 20th (extension of the festive holidays) to the way formed by the public market operating interest rate (mainly referring to the MLF interest rate). Therefore, LPR = MLF interest rate+point difference.

At present, the MLF period is mainly one -year, which reflects the average marginal capital cost of the banking system incorporated into the central bank's basic currency to the central bank.

Regarding the reason why LPR quotations remained unchanged in July, Zhou Maohua, a macroex researcher at the Everbright Financial Market Department, believes that "basically meet expectations." On the one hand, financial and economic data in June show that domestic economic activities have accelerated their recovery, and the demand for real economy financing needs Obviously heating, optimization of credit structure, and low market interest rates, MLF policy interest rates this month are not moving.

It is worth mentioning that the MLF operating interest rate in July was the same as last month, and it has remained unchanged for six consecutive months. In Wen Bin's view, this is mainly affected by two factors internal and external factors. From the perspective, the first is to implement the implementation of a policy of a stable economy, and the economic restoration has accelerated. In June, the credit agency fed the dual innovation high, and the monetary policy will be temporarily at a period of effect observation. The second is that the domestic CPI enters the raising channel year -on -year, the weight of the price has increased, and the interest rate cut is constrained.

From the outside, the US inflation data continues to be high, the currency tightening process is accelerated, and the stable domestic monetary policy helps to take into account both internal and external balance. The Fed's rapid tightening of monetary policy and global entry into a currency tightening cycle will trigger the risk of capital outflow and exchange rate depreciation. The spread of China and the United States has compressed the loose space of my country's monetary policy to a certain extent. Under the consideration of "internal and external balance", maintaining stability of policy interest rates is the optimal choice.

"On the other hand, after several previous LPR interest rates, and the complex operating environment, some banks face a greater pressure pressure pressure; in order to cope with the complex operating environment, it continues to increase the disposal of non -performing assets. Some banks are also actively active Increase profits, "Zhou Maohua added.

Data show that at the end of the first quarter of this year, the net interest margin of commercial banks narrowed significantly to below 2.0%, the lowest since 2017; Among them, the net interest margin of urban commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and large banks was relatively faster, and they were created. The lowest since 2017; the net interest difference between large banks and urban commercial banks has fallen to the lowest since 2017; below 2.0%.

There is still room for low -reduction

For future LPR quotation expectations, market analysis, there is still room for low -reduction in 5 years.

In May 2022, the LPR quotation of more than 5 years reached a maximum decrease, down a downward range of 15bp. Judging from the recent situation of the property market, real estate sales and financing gradually showed signs of recovery. The 21st Century Business Herald was informed that the new scale of real estate loans in June increased significantly compared with May, and increased in two months in a row. It is expected that real estate loans will increase by more than 150 billion yuan in June, which is 250 billion yuan over May, of which 100 billion yuan in real estate development loans will increase, and personal housing loans increase 150 billion yuan.

Data show that in June, the interest rate of new enterprises was 4.16%, which was 34 basis points lower than the same period last year. "The current newly issued corporate loan interest rate has reached a record low, and the interest rate of mortgage and retail loan has decreased greater. The downside of various structural monetary policy instruments and loan interest rates have played a effect of stimulating financing demand to a certain extent." Wen Bin It is pointed out that if the subsequent economic recovery is not as good as expected, the restoration of consumption and investment is weak, the LPR interest rate may still have time to reduce the space in the future, and the probability of 5 -year LPR reduction may be greater.

"In the next few months, in the future, the Fed will continue to tighten the prospect of monetary policy. While adhering to the" main "tone of me, the domestic monetary policy will pay more attention to internal and external balance, and the possibility of MLF interest rate is less likely." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that in consideration of the global economic slowdown in the second half of the year, the possibility of my country's export growth rate fluctuates down. Real estate will run low for a period of time. In addition The direction of the surface will remain high in the direction of steady growth, and the possibility of retreating or even turning is very small.

He judged that the focus of monetary policy operations will be to stabilize policy interest rates, focus on guiding the decline in actual loan interest rates, continue to reduce the cost of financing of the real economy, and consolidate economic restoration trends with wide credit. This also includes further guiding the mortgage interest rate down and promoting the property market as soon as possible in the third quarter.

On July 13, Zou Lan, the director of the Central Bank Monetary Policy Department, said at the data interpretation conference in the second quarter of 2022 that the central bank will comprehensively consider the fundamental conditions such as economic growth and the situation of prices in the future. Reasonable and abundant, further promote financial institutions to reduce corporate financing costs, and to consolidate the economy to resume the appropriate monetary and financial environment. He also mentioned that it will continue to deepen the market -oriented reform of interest rates, continue to release the effectiveness of LPR reform, and promote continuing to reduce the actual loan interest rate. It is worth mentioning that even if the MLF interest rate remains unchanged in the second half of the year, the LPR quotation is still hoped to be reduced, that is, by guiding the cost of the bank's funding costs, the LPR quotation is reduced to reduce the interest rate of enterprises and residential loans. In April 2022, the central bank established a market -oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates. According to changes in market interest rates, various banks actively adjusted the level of deposit interest rates. Preliminary statistics, in June this year, the average interest rate of new deposits in the bank of the country was about 2.32%, which was reduced by 0.12 percentage points compared with April before adjustment.

Zou Lan said that the establishment of the market -oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates has significantly improved the market -oriented pricing capacity of deposit interest rates, which is conducive to maintaining a good competitive order in the deposit market, stabilizing the cost of bank liabilities, promoting reducing actual loan interest rates, better supporting the real economy develop.

Wang Qing said: "Considering that deposits account for about 70 % of the bank liabilities, this will drive the cost of bank liabilities to decline significantly. We judge that the new mechanism drives the cost of bank deposits to decline, which is to promote the May 5 -year LPR offer. An important reason to reduce. "

He believes that "stable MLF interest rate+down reduction LPR quotation" will be a specific measure to "take into account both internal and external balance" while maintaining a stable growth orientation in the coming period.

(Coordinating: Ma Chunyuan)

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