74 Urban Mortgage interest rate Touch the lower limit of the lower limit in July, the overall mortgage level hit a new low in the past four years.

21st Century Economic Herald reporter Jia Junhui Guangzhou reported on July 20, the new issue of LPR quotation was released. The 1 -year LPR was 3.7%, and the LPR of more than 5 years was 4.45%. The majority of "repayment people", which look forward to further reduction in mortgage interest rates.

In this regard, Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, analyzed that on the one hand, under the influence of internal and external factors, the MLF operating interest rate in July was the same as last month, and it has remained unchanged for six consecutive months. LPR interest rates are linked to MLF. Under the background of MLF interest rates, the foundation of LPR quotation in July has not changed. On the other hand, since the second quarter, under the dual squeezing of supply and demand, the two -ends of the deposit and loan, the downward pressure of the bank's net interest margin has further increased, and the power of LPR quotes in the short term is not strong.

Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, said that the amount of affordable continuation of MLF and other quantities in July means that the current market liquidity is reasonable and abundant. From the perspective of the external environment, the US CPI reached a new high in June, the expectation of interest rate hikes is increasing, and the global entry of monetary policy tightening cycles will reduce the loose space of my country's monetary policy. The consideration of "internal and inside and outside balance" will remain unchanged in the short term.

Although the latest period of LPR has not been adjusted, the housing credit environment in July is still loose. On July 20, the mainstream mortgage interest rate data released by the Shell Research Institute showed that the interest rate of the 103 key cities monitored this month was 4.35%, and the two sets of interest rates were 5.07%, which fell from 7 declines in the previous month. Base points and 2 basis points decreased by 139 basis points and 93 basis points compared with the high point last year, reaching a new low since 2019. At the same time, bank loans have also accelerated. The average loan cycle of this month is 25 days, which is shortened by 4 days compared with the previous month.

It is worth noting that in July, the mainstream interest rate of 30 urban mortgages was reduced. At present, 74 urban mortgage interest rates are as low as 4.25%as low as 4.25%, and two sets of 5.05%minimum interest rate standards. Among them, the interest rate of Hefei housing loan was reduced by a large increase this month, and the first set of interest rates were reduced by 78bp from the previous month.

In terms of urban lines, the interest rate of mortgages in third- and fourth -tier cities has decreased the largest year -on -year. The first two sets of interest rates decreased by 141bp and 93bp, respectively; the interest rate of mortgages in first -tier cities decreased the smallest year -on -year, and the first two sets of interest rates decreased by only 38bp and 30bp. Among them, Beijing topped the first set of 5.0%and two sets of 5.5%interest rate levels in the country's loan interest rate list.

For the subsequent trend of mortgage interest rates, Liu Lijie judged that the mortgage interest rate in the third quarter is expected to enter the bottom stage. "In the short term, LPR and the unchanged rules remain unchanged, and the mortgage interest rate still has room to decline but the space is narrowed. It is expected that the overall mortgage interest rate level in the third quarter will gradually approach the lower limit."

However, Wen Bin believes that there is still room for the next five -year LPR reduction.

Since the beginning of this year, the housing credit environment has become increasingly loose, but mortgage launch is still weak, and the pressure on the property market has stable growth. According to the latest disclosure of the CBRC, real estate loans were added 158.4 billion yuan in June, of which real estate development loans were added 41.5 billion yuan, that is, the new scale of mortgage loans was around 116.9 billion yuan, which was still rarely increased year -on -year.

Wen Bin analyzed that on the one hand, it reflects the weak expectations of residents' purchase of houses, and on the other hand, it may reflect that in the arbitrage space, there are still some intermediary agencies to replace business loans with lower annual interest rates with high annual interest rate mortgages. Help the business loan illegal investments into the property market. "Based on the consideration of stable real estate sales and crackdown on arbitrage, the interest rate of the new mortgage loan issued in the future does not rule out further downward. In the early stage, some hot cities with high mortgage loan interest rates and third -tier cities are expected to be further reduced."

Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Rules Institute, also pointed out that the LPR is still down in the channel. At the same time, he also emphasized that insufficient market confidence is not that the interest rate of mortgages is not low enough. "The current downturn in the property market is not a changeable monetary policy to increase the overall demand. It is more structural factors, such as deserted land markets, disorderly price reduction of developers, insufficient residents' income, poor prospects, concerns about the delivery of new houses, worrying about the delivery of new houses, worrying about the delivery of new houses, worrying about the delivery of new houses, worrying about the delivery of new houses, worrying about the delivery of new houses, worrying about the delivery of new houses, and worrying about the delivery of new houses. The expected future prospects of the epidemic are restricting and impact on the demand side. These problems cannot be solved by reducing LPR. "

Li Yujia further pointed out that in order to achieve the effect of bailout property markets and recovery markets, the supply side problems, demand and expected problems must be solved, and LPR decline must also follow up and cooperate simultaneously. "Only then can the property market gradually stabilize. On the whole, the LPR is still in a downward channel, but the rhythm will be adjusted in a timely manner."

It is worth mentioning that in order to promote the recovery of the real estate market, cities that have lowered the down payment ratio of house purchase this year have emerged. According to the monitoring of the Shell Research Institute, 49 cities including Wuhan, Nanchang, Changchun, Harbin and other provincial capitals in 103 cities performed the first settlement of the lowest 20%down payment of the first commercial loan.

In Liu Lijie's view, low down payment is superimposed to low interest rates, which essentially reduces the cost of buying a house, which will help release the demand for house purchase and facilitate market restoration.

(Coordinating: Ma Chunyuan)

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