Site investigation!A large number of "Gold Rush" poured into Shenzhen Shuibei, how much room for decline in the price of gold has dropped by 10%?

China Times (chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Ge Aifeng, a trainee, Qi Meng Shenzhen Photography Report

On July 19, the insiders of Shenzhen's "Shuibei Golden Exhibition International Jewelry Plaza" were crowded. Even if it is a working day, there is still a stream of people in the golden sales area on the first floor of the square. The front of the counter is full of customers who come to choose gold jewelry. "Recently, there are so many customers here every day, and there are more customers on the weekend." A security guard on the first floor of the square told the reporter of Huaxia Times.

The reporter visited that the price of gold in the water shellfish market was 374 yuan/gram on the same day, which was almost 10%compared with the price of 418 yuan/gram a few months ago. The international gold price has also continued to decline recently, and it has appeared around. After the international gold price reached a high of 2070.42 US dollars per ounce in March this year, it fell all the way. As of July 18, the price of gold futures in the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $ 1707.10 per ounce.

The decline in international gold prices has led to the decline in domestic gold prices, which has stimulated domestic gold consumption. Therefore, the gold wholesale concentrated in Shenzhen Water Belle ushered in a large number of "gold rush".

"The decline in gold prices means that the decline in the degree of concern of the financial market and the capital market will be conducive to promoting the recovery of commodities, stock markets, bond markets, and property markets, and it is also conducive to promoting the development of the consumer market of gold products." IPG Chinese chief economist Bo Wenxi told this reporter.

The gold price of Shuibei market drops by about 10%

As the saying goes, "Chinese jewelry watching Shenzhen, Shenzhen jewelry watching water shells", this sentence vividly interprets the status of Shenzhen water shells in the jewelry industry. According to public information, water shells occupy more than 70%of the Chinese jewelry market. The jewelry market well -deserved hegemon.

On July 19, a reporter from the Huaxia Times visited the "Water Best Golden Show International Jewelry Plaza" on the spot and found that even if it was a working day, there was still a stream of people in the golden sales area on the first floor of the square. A clerk at the gold counter said: "Like today, we are all busy. By the weekend, a person needs to serve several customers at the same time."

It is worth noting that the price of gold in the water shellfish market was 374 yuan/gram that day, which was nearly 10%compared with the price of 418 yuan/gram a few months ago. At the same time, a number of gold counter clerks told this reporter that this month was the first large -scale gold price since this year. On July 5, the gold price of the water shell market fell to 383 yuan/gram, and July 11th fell to 378 to 378 Yuan/gram, it fell to 374 yuan/gram on July 19.

The price reduction of Shuibei gold not only attracted the wholesalers, but also ushered in the "stocking" of scattered customers. "After hearing the news of the price reduction of gold, I flew from the northeast to Shenzhen to buy gold, and to travel by the way." A consumer who was choosing gold at the counter said. And a number of gold counters also said: "There were more wholesalers before, but recently have become more than those who have become more than those who have become more than those who have recently become more."

Will the future gold price continue to fall?

At present, the three major attributes of gold currency, goods, and finance have determined its price trend. Under the currency attributes of gold, its price is affected by the alternativeness between the dollar and the two major factors of the currency and the risk aversion attributes of the currency; under the product attributes of gold, its price is subject to the two major prices of gold supply and gold demand for gold demand. Factors affect; under the financial attributes of gold, due to the "zero votes" of gold, the price is negatively related to the actual interest rate level. At the same time, gold as a preservation investment is positively related to inflation level. In addition, the liquidity shock during the financial crisis has also become the main factor affecting the short -term gold price.

In response to the high point of US $ 2070.42/ounce in March this year, Yang Jinghao, chief economist of Kangkai Data Science, told the reporter of "Huaxia Times": "The hedging emotion of funds and the impact of energy supply represented by crude oil are concerned about common concerns. In early March of this year, the price of gold was pushed. "" The concerns caused by the expansion of the international situation and economic disability caused by the Russian and Ukraine conflict also pushed up the gold price. "Bo Wenxi further pointed out.

Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, also told this reporter: "The rise in gold prices before was under the context of the large -scale depreciation of the US dollar in large scale. In this case, the price of gold will naturally rise naturally. trend."

After March, international gold prices fell all the way and continued to decline all the way. To Yang Jinghao, "the fluctuation of gold prices is mainly caused by the speculative demand of its currency attributes in the financial market. In March, the FOMC meeting launched the tightening monetary policy of interest rate hikes and passive contraction tables; while the gold market was running until mid -to -late June, the decline in gold prices was mainly due to the Federal Reserve's three consecutive FOMC meetings accelerated interest rate hikes. The expected signal of economic recession has led the emotional factors caused by pessimistic expectations of the market. It enters the market that the market may raise interest rates in the Federal Reserve in early July to the Federal Reserve's expected 100bp resolution in July FOMC, which further exacerbated the market's empty emotions. Especially at 20:30 on the evening of July 14, Beijing time, the US inflation data was announced in June, and inflation continued to surpass expectations.

At the same time, Bo Wenxi believes: "The relative stability of the war situation in the past few months has reduced the concerns of the financial market's uncertainty in the future. The rational return of gold prices naturally triggered a decline in international gold prices." Will the future gold prices continue to fall? Yang Jinghao believes, "In the short term, as the Federal Reserve's ticket committee has re -market emotions for 100bp to raise interest rate hikes, the market short emotions ease, and the price of gold will usher in repair. If the Federal Reserve decided to announce the interest rate hike of 100bp, the price of gold cannot exclude the possibility of further downward. It is precisely because the Federal Reserve's current policy uncertainty and its more uncertain market expectations are more uncertain. Gold prices may be in the middle period. Facing a wide -ranging market pattern. "

Jiang Han also said: "If the dollar continues to strengthen and the trend of interest rate hikes continues, the price of gold is likely to fall further."

At the same time, the World Gold Association report also shows that in the second half of 2022, global investors will face a relatively complex market environment and need to control multiple risks such as interest rate hikes, high inflation and geopolitics. In the short term, gold prices may be affected by factors such as actual interest rates, the global central bank's tightening of monetary policy rhythm, and the effects of controlling inflation levels.

Editor -in -chief: Xu Yunqian Editor: Gong Peijia

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