International gold prices have been explored four consecutive weeks. Gold ETF attacked gold against the trend. Is the time to add positions?

Picture source: Shanghai Gold Exchange

China Times (Chinese Times.net.cn) Reporter Ge Aifeng, a reporter Qi Meng Shenzhen report

The international gold price fell all the way after the high point of US $ 2070.42/ounce in March this year. As of July 18, the price of gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $ 1707.10 per ounce, and international gold prices continued to decline, and it appeared in a row.

The lower price of gold has also stimulated domestic gold consumption. In addition to physical gold, the Gold ETF Fund is also highly sought after, and the net inflow of funds is obvious. Statistics show that Boshi Gold ETF received 157 million net purchases, with a total of about 580 million yuan in suction; E Fund's Gold ETF received 62 million net purchases, to 1.122 billion copies, and the scale of gold absorption was more than 220 million. In addition, the Gold ETFs under the open source of Guangfa and Qianhai also received net funding for funds.

In this regard, Yang Jinghao, chief economist of Kang Kai Data Science, told the reporter of "Huaxia Times": "Because of the current policy uncertainty of the Federal Reserve and its more uncertain market expected management, the price of gold may face the medium term to face the medium term. The wide -split market pattern, so investors should fully pay attention to the two -way fluctuation risk of the market, and gold investors must pay more attention to the risk of drastic fluctuations in the position of the positioning contract itself. "

Gold price continues to fall

From the perspective of global economic fundamentals, the current US inflation data has reached a new high. According to data released by the US Department of Labor, the United States CPI in June was 9.1%year -on -year, 8.8%expected, and 8.6%before. The core CPI in the United States in June was 5.9%year -on -year, expected to 5.7%, and the previous value was 6%. The CPI increased by 1.3%month -on -month, setting the highest record in 2005, an increase of 9.1%year -on -year, the largest increase since the end of 1981. In addition, due to the sharp rise in energy costs, the US producer price index (PPI) in June increased by 11.3%year -on -year, close to the highest level of history. After eliminating food, energy and trade prices, the core PPI increased by 6.4%year -on -year, narrowing from May; increased by 0.3%month -on -month, which was lower than the general estimated 0.5%of the market.

The impact of high inflation on the economy is increasingly apparent, eroding residents 'income, lowered residents' consumer confidence, and high inflation forces the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive tightening policy. The downward pressure on the economy gradually increased. Although various data showed that cost pressure continued, due to concerns about demand prospects, commodity prices began to fall.

Therefore, after the international gold price reached a high of 2070.42 US dollars/ounce in March this year, it fell all the way, and the international gold price continued to decline. As of July 18, the price of gold fell and recorded the fifth consecutive week. Among them, spot gold (AU: 99.99%), the average price of the international market was 1706.66 US dollars/ounce, the highest price in the day was 1706.89 US dollars per ounce, the lowest price was to be 1706.66 US dollars/ounce, a rising decrease of -0.14%, a rise and fall of -2.44 US dollars/ounce; the price of gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $ 1707.10 per ounce. A band, an ups and downs of 0.04%, and a rise and fall of 0.60 US dollars per ounce.

Under the influence of international gold prices, domestic gold prices have also shocked. Shanghai Gold Exchange spot gold (AU: 99.99%) closed at 445.99 yuan/gram on August 7, 2020, with a maximum price of 449 yuan/gram, and fell to the closing price of 371.89 yuan/gram on July 15 this year, with the lowest price of 371.3 371.3 Yuan/gram; on July 18, the Shanghai Futures Exchange SHFE period received at 374.98 yuan per gram, the highest touched 375.58 yuan/gram in daily, the minimum reached 371.80 yuan/gram, and the rise and fall was 1.6 yuan/gram.

Gold ETF ushered in the "purchase wave"?

According to the World Gold Association, the global gold ETF remains strong in the first half of 2022. Driven by the strong price of strong gold prices, weak stock markets, rapid inflation expectations, and unexpected geopolitical crises, the demand for gold ETF in the first quarter increased to 273 tons in the first quarter. In the context of interest and quantitative tightening, global gold ETF positions dropped by 39 tons. However, the net inflow volume in the first half of the year remained at 234 tons (about 14.8 billion US dollars). As of the end of June, the global gold ETF's total positioning was 3792 tons (approximately US $ 221.7 billion), an increase of 6%over the beginning of the year.

Domestic gold ETFs are also followed. Statistics show that Boshi Gold ETF received 157 million net purchases, with a total of about 580 million yuan in suction; E Fund's Gold ETF received 62 million net purchases, to 1.122 billion copies, and the scale of gold absorption was more than 220 million. In addition, the Gold ETFs under the open source of Guangfa and Qianhai also received net funding for funds.

Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pan Gu Gu Tank, told this reporter: "Large -scale fluctuations in the domestic gold ETF share are due to the current trend of drastic fluctuations in the entire gold market."

At the same time, Wang Xiang, manager of Boshi Gold ETF Fund, pointed out to this reporter: "Last week, the US June CPI data again exceeded expectations, causing the Federal Reserve’ s interest rate hike rhythm to further accelerate concerns and continued the gold market. Domestic investors in the market in the market After the decline, the willingness to enter the venue emerged. After the fierce fall of last week, the gold market continued to perform weak performance last week. Although the decline has slowed down, it may take time to get rid of the dilemma as a whole. Recently, the gold market fluctuates The rate is significantly enlarged compared to the previous period, and the active trading of investors has led to a more obvious change in share. "Wang Xiang also said:" Looking back at history, it can be found that the operational behavior of investors in Boshi Gold ETF is not accidental In the past few years, it has also appeared many times. Since 2021, the correlation between the monthly scale and gold price of Boshi Gold ETF has even reached -0.82 (data source Wind), showing a clear negative correlation. "

According to the World Gold Association report, in the second half of 2022, global investors will face a relatively complex market environment and need to control multiple risks such as interest rate hikes, high inflation and geopolitics. In the short term, gold prices may be affected by factors such as actual interest rates, the global central bank's tightening of monetary policy rhythm, and the effects of controlling inflation levels. In this context, is the above "high throw and low suction" worth learning?

In this regard, Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, told this reporter: "For the current investors, it may be better to move as little as possible. It may be a better investment strategy to wait for the changes in the entire market to be determined. "

At the same time, Wang Xiang said: "In the short term, because the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution in July and September still has a high probability of maintaining a high rate of interest rate hikes, and the golden assets with close linkage with actual interest rates may continue to be trapped. The interest rate hike itself has increased the operating costs of the US economy, and the alleviation of inflation factor mainly based on supply side is limited. The signs of the US economic margin have gradually become obvious, making the current relative advantage of the current spread and the economy in the United States weakened , Gold Assets will rejuvenate a new vitality, and it is recommended that investors continue to pay attention. "

Editor -in -chief: Xu Yunqian Editor: Gong Peijia

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