The good factor in China's economy has continued to accumulate, and stabilized and rebounding in the third quarter

Professor of the School of Economics, Yuanzheng Southwest University of Finance and Economics, senior researcher of the Yangtze River Economics Belt Research Institute

According to data released by the State Bureau of Statistics, the GDP in my country increased by 2.5%year -on -year in the first half of the year, and a year -on -year increase of 0.4%in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 0.7%year -on -year, and the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 6.1%year -on -year. The total imports and exports of goods increased by 9.4%year -on -year, exports increased by 13.2%, and imports increased by 4.8%.

In the second quarter, the downward pressure on the economy increased significantly, and the international environment became more complicated and severe. The domestic new crown pneumonia's epidemic emitted more, demand contracted, supply impact, and weakened; the economic growth rate in the second quarter decreased by 4.4 percentage points from the first quarter (4.8%) of 4.4 percentage points. Essence In the third quarter, the good factor of China's economy continued to accumulate, and the government's multi -pronged approach stabilized the economic market, and the economy was expected to return to a reasonable growth rate.

Economic factor constant accumulation

Demand shrinkage is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. The epidemic and prevention and control measures have reduced the flow of residents and reduced consumption. The pessimism caused by the epidemic also caused residents to do not want to consume. With the effective control of the rebound in this round of epidemic, consumer confidence will gradually recover.

The impact of supply is mainly affected by the international environment. Last year, the United States adopted a stimulating economic plan, which led to a significant increase in the price of commodities in the world. The Russian -Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the crisis of energy and food supply, which led to further increase in global energy and food prices. At present, the supply shock is weaker. In the first half of the year, the ex -factory price of industrial producers rose 7.7%year -on -year, and in the second quarter, it rose 6.8%year -on -year. Among them, in April, May, and June, it rose by 8.0%, 6.4%, and 6.1%respectively. PPIs gradually declined.

As the epidemic is effectively controlled, the prevention and control policies are more accurate, and the expected improvement is improved. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the PMI of manufacturing in June was 50.2%, the non -manufacturing PMI was 54.7%, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 54.1%, which was significantly increased by 0.6%, 6.9%, and 5.7%compared with May. And return to the Rongku line above.

Multi -pronged approach to stabilize the economic market

This is mainly due to the timely deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council to make policies in a timely manner. To launch a package of stability of the economy, at the same time, efficiently coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, seize the important window period of economic recovery, and adhere to the development of all problems in my country, focus on consolidating the foundation of economic recovery, promote the return of the economy as soon as possible to normal as soon as possible Rail, keep running in a reasonable range.

Implement active fiscal policies. Further increase the efforts of the VAT tax refund policy, accelerate the progress of fiscal expenditure, accelerate the issuance of special bonds for local governments, and expand the scope of support, make good use of government financing guarantee policies, etc. Slowly pay policies and increase support for stabilization. Efforts to stabilize investment to promote consumption. Accelerate a group of mature water conservancy projects, accelerate the investment in transportation infrastructure, continue to promote the construction of urban underground comprehensive pipe corridors, stabilize and expand private investment, and promote the healthy development of the platform for the platform; stabilize the consumption of large automotive and appliances. Strive for basic livelihood. Implement the housing provident fund phased support policies, improve the agricultural transfer population and rural labor employment entrepreneurship support policies, and improve the guarantee measures of social livelihood.

Increase the implementation of stable monetary policy. Encourage the implementation of the principal and interest to the small and medium -sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, truck drivers loans and personal housing and consumer loans affected by the epidemic, increase support for inclusive small and micro loans, and continue to promote the actual loan interest rate , Improve the efficiency of capital market financing, and increase the support of financial institutions for infrastructure construction and major projects. Although the current monetary policy is loose, it is still mainly stable and insist on not engaged in "big water."

The main body of the supply chain guarantee market. Improve and improve policies such as food income guarantee, and under the premise of ensuring safe and cleaning and efficient use, it will orderly release high -quality coal production capacity, hurry up to promote the implementation of a number of energy projects, improve the capacity and level of coal reserves, and strengthen energy resource reserve capabilities such as crude oil. Reduce the costs of market subjects, use water and power network and other costs, promote the rents of market main houses in stages, increase the support for enterprises that have affected enterprises in large industries such as civil aviation such as civil aviation, optimize the re -production policy of enterprises Bao Chang's policy, coordinate the support of logistics hubs and logistics companies, accelerate major foreign projects, and actively attract foreign investment.

The economy is expected to return to a reasonable growth rate

From the perspective of the economic development laws in the world, economic growth has a transformation law from high speed to medium -speed growth and then to low -speed growth. As the base is getting larger and larger, the growth rate will gradually decrease. At present, China is in a new normal growth rate of about 5%, and this growth rate may last longer. This year's government work report proposed the 5.5%growth rate, which was proposed based on the improvement of the epidemic. In the second quarter, the epidemic was repeated, and the pressure on the pressure was positively increased. In the third quarter, as long as the situation of new crown pneumonia does not deteriorate, under normal circumstances, the Chinese economy is expected to return to a reasonable growth rate.

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