Wall Street's second quarter performance was released in the second quarter!How much does the Federal Reserve continue to raise interest rates on the banking industry?

Under the haze of high inflation and concern of high inflation and economic recession, another US banking industry has begun.

The general decline in performance has long been a sign. Most banks' second quarter performance is lower than market expectations, but the super -expected performance of the two institutions of Goldman Sachs and Citi Group has re -boosted investor confidence.

Before the US stock market on July 18, local time, Goldman Sachs disclosed that the second quarter revenue and profit data were exceeded market expectations. The stock price should rise by more than 4%, and the US stock banking sector followed up. As of the close of the day, Goldman Sachs closed up 2.51%, Morgan Stanley closed up 1.04%, Citi Group closed up 0.18%, Bank of America closed up 0.03%, and Wells Fargo closed up 0.15%. Among the "Six Waldows of Wall Street" on that day, JP Morgan Chase closed 1.03%.

From the perspective of financial report data, the profit of large US banks in the second quarter generally fell more than two digits; JP Morgan Stanley had a profit performance that was not as expected to the market for the first time in more than 9 months. However, at the performance briefing, Wall Street executives still have an optimistic attitude towards future credit growth, which is due to the rebound of retail and commercial customers.

However, they also warned that if the deteriorating economic prospects began to damage consumer confidence, the loan demand may be affected later this year, and they expressed concerns about the risk of decline.

The performance of large American banks generally declines

On July 18, local time, Goldman Sachs released the latest financial report this week. In the second quarter of this year, the institution's revenue reached 11.86 billion US dollars, a year -on -year decrease of about 23%, but it was still better than the market expectations of US $ 10.67 billion; profit decreased by 48%year -on -year decreased by 48%year -on -year. By US $ 2.79 billion, equivalent to $ 7.73 per share, a year -on -year decrease of 49%, but it is still more than $ 1 higher than the market expected $ 6.69.

At the same time, Bank of the United States' second largest bank in the United States revealed that the bank's profit in the second quarter achieved a profit of US $ 5.93 billion, a decrease of 34%, equivalent to 73 cents per share, which was lower than the market expectations of 75 cents. However, thanks to consumer expenditure and borrowing, the group's seasonal revenue increased by about 6%year -on -year to $ 22.7 billion, basically in line with expectations.

Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo have achieved super double -digit performance decline in net profit, and have not met the expectations of analysts. Among them, the net profit of Morgan Chase fell nearly 29%to $ 8.20 billion in the second quarter, equivalent to $ 2.76 per share, which was lower than the market expectations of US $ 2.91; Morgan Stanley's net profit in the second quarter fell nearly 30%to US $ 2.4 billion, adjustment Later, the earnings per share were $ 1.44, and the market was estimated to be $ 1.57 before; Wells Wells Bank's second quarter net profit fell 50%to $ 2.84 billion, and the earnings per share was $ 0.82. Analysts expect $ 0.85.

Despite the general decline in performance, the performance of Goldman Sachs and Citi all exceeded market expectations, and the stock price of the day issued on the day of financial reports was boosted. Citi Group disclosed earlier that the group's second quarter revenue was 19.62 billion US dollars, an increase of about 12%year -on -year, exceeding the market expectations of US $ 18.098 billion; net profit was US $ 4.55 billion, a year -on -year decrease of 27%, exceeding the market expectations of US $ 3.369 billion Essence It is understood that the group's second quarter performance exceeded expectations due to large funds brought by foreign exchange, commodity and interest rate transactions, and cross -border corporate funds.

It is worth noting that the investment banking business income of Wall Street banks has almost cut off in the second quarter, becoming an important factor in dragging bank profits this quarter. Among them, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Citi -related businesses have decreased by more than 40%. This is mainly due to the continuous heat interest rate hike measures and risk aversion to the anti -inflation.

Data released by Global financial data provider Dealogic show that in the first half of this year, the IPO scale of the global stock capital market was US $ 263.8 billion, a year -on -year decrease of nearly 69%; percentage point.

American banking industry under continuous interest rate hike

On July 13, local time, the US Ministry of Labor released the latest price data. In June, CPI rose 9.1%year -on -year, the largest increase since November 1981, and the month -on -month increased by 1.3%, a new high since September 2005. After the inflation data was announced, US President Biden said that the U.S. inflation data in June was "unacceptable" and would provide the necessary space for the Fed to cope with inflation.

A few days ago, the Standard Chartered Bank Wealth Management Department issued the "Global Market Outlook in the second half of 2022" predicting that the Fed will raise interest rates to 150 basis points to 3.25%by the end of the year, making interest rates exceeding the Fed's "neutral" level 2.5%. With the Federal Reserve's policy becomes more restrictive, the risk of US economic recession will rise sharply in the next 6 to 12 months. "Slow possibility".

Although the Fed's sharp interest rate hike has caused concerns about economic recession, it is also good news for banks -not only helps the bank's net interest difference, but also to a certain extent to promote bank customers to increase loan tendency. The second quarter financial report of Citi Group showed that the total yield of the bank's loan increased in five consecutive quarters, reaching 5.81%in the second quarter.

Both Wells Fargo and Morgan Chase both show that corporate customers borrow more funds in the second quarter, usually to make up for the increase in costs caused by soaring inflation. For example, Morgan Chase's enterprise and industrial loans have grown strongly. Due to the increase in the use of circular facilities and the increase in new account opening, it has increased by 6%, and commercial real estate loans have increased by 3%. However, the rate hike operation of anti -inflation has also caused the expected heating up to the US economy decline. In the first quarter of this year, the GDP (GDP) of the United States fell 1.6%. According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNOW model on July 15th, the actual GDP growth in the second quarter was estimated at -1.5%, below -1.2%below July 8. The relevant estimates issued by the US Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau and other departments also show that the growth of actual personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter and the actual growth of actual private domestic investment were reduced from 1.9%and -13.7%, respectively to 1.5%and -13.8. %.

The slowdown in the growth of manufacturing, the slowdown in the service industry, and the impact of inflation on consumption expectations have caused the US economy to be the edge of technological recession. Wall Street bankers also expressed concern about the crackdown on "corporate confidence and consumer activities", and this uncertainty also prompted them to use resources and manage various expenses more cautiously. According to Goldman Sachs CFO Denis Coleman, the company has chosen to slow down the recruitment speed, reduce the professional expenses that need to be paid, and may restore the annual performance evaluation of employees this year to eliminate employees with worst performance. This evaluation mechanism was suspended during the epidemic.

"When I talked with the CEO of large global companies, they told me that their supply chain was still continuing to inflation." Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said at the bank's second quarter performance conference call. "At the same time, our economists said that there are signs that the inflation rate will decline in the second half of this year. The answer is uncertain, and we will pay close attention." He said.

Responsible editor: Luo Xiaoxia

- END -