In July, the probability of LPR remained unchanged.

In July, LPR (loan market quotation interest rate) was released. Analysts generally predict that the probability of LPR in July will remain unchanged, that is, the one -year LPR is 3.7%, and the LPR of more than 5 years is 4.45%.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that LPR has continued to maintain stability this month. On the one hand, the interest rate of MLF (interim borrowing convenience) in July remained unchanged. Under the background of the current physical financing demand recovery, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as "central bank") in the short term or trending in interest rate adjustment; on the other hand,, on the other hand, In the complex internal and external economic environment, some banks are facing a greater pressure difference.

On July 15, the central bank carried out 100 billion yuan MLF operation, and the operating interest rate remained 2.85%unchanged. Based on the anchoring effect of MLF, the possibility of LPR down this month is low. According to the main regulatory indicators recently announced by the CBRC recently, the net interest margin of commercial banks in the first quarter was 1.97%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from 2.08%at the end of 2021.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that since the second quarter, the interest rate and mortgage loan interest rate of new corporate loans have been reduced in the second quarter, and the net interest margin is expected to still be in a downward channel. In this case, the probability of LPR reduction in the short term is not high.

According to the data recently released by the central bank, in June, the interest rate of new corporate loans was 4.16%, 34 basis points lower than the same period last year; from January to June, the corporate loan interest rate was 4.32%, a year -on -year decrease of 0.31 percentage points. New low.

It is worth mentioning that the central bank established a market -oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates in April this year. Since the establishment of the mechanism, according to changes in market interest rates, various banks have actively adjusted the level of deposit interest rates. According to central bank data, in June, the average improving interest rate of new deposits in the country across the country was about 2.32%, which was reduced by 0.12 percentage points compared with April before adjustment.

Zou Lan, director of the Central Bank Policy Department, said that the establishment of the market -oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates has significantly improved the pricing capacity of the marketization of deposit interest rates, which is conducive to maintaining a good competitive order in the deposit market, stabilizing the cost of bank liabilities, promoting reducing actual loan interest rates, and more It supports the development of the real economy.

"From the perspective of the trend, the LPR interest rate still has room to reduce." Zhou Maohua said that the reason is that the domestic economic growth and employment in the second half of the year still need policy support. In the second half of the year, policies and measures that have been introduced will continue to be implemented. Whether the central bank will further launch an incremental policy tool also needs to pay attention to subsequent consumption and investment recovery.

The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly said in an interview with the Securities Daily that subsequent structural monetary policy tools will continue to make efforts. At the same time, the central bank will play a role in improving the efficiency of monetary policy transmission. The relevant person in charge of the central bank has recently given an evaluation of "focusing on key points, reasonable and moderate, progressive and retreat", and affirmed the effect of accurate tilt in key areas. It is expected that with the implementation of scientific and technological innovation re -loans, special re -loans of inclusive pensions, and transfer of transportation and logistics to the re -loan, the central bank will issue and newly set up according to the actual policy effects, and give full play to its directional support.

(Editor in charge: Wang Chenxi)

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