Answer the reader asked: How is the economic "hard landing" and "soft landing" defined?

Editor: Comrade:

Recently, media reports said that the US economy has the risk of "hard landing" when the Fed has tightened monetary policy. How can the economic "hard landing" and "soft landing" be defined?

Anhui reader Zhu Xiaoting

The concepts of "hard landing" and "soft landing" are derived from the aerospace field. Today, this concept is also widely used in the economic field. A "overheated" economy is like a high spacecraft, which is usually accompanied by more severe inflation, financial bubbles, and excessive social liabilities. In order not to cause social turmoil, the government generally adopts a tightening policy to the economy to the economy to the economy. Calling down and returning various indicators to a reasonable range, which can be called economic "landing". Therefore, if the tightening policy of a country has led to a significant increase in currency, a significant increase in unemployment, and a severe economic decline, this can be called "hard landing". Conversely, if a country's tightening policy makes the economy return to a reasonable interval and does not cause serious "sequelae", it is called "soft landing".

Recently, the soaring inflation has forced the Federal Reserve to start the interest rate hike period. Looking back at history, since 1965, the Fed has gone through a total of 11 interest rate hike cycles. Among them, the Federal Reserve has reduced inflation levels in the three interest rate hike cycles, and has not triggered economic recession. The rest have triggered a different degree of economic recession, such as the financial crisis in 2008.

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At present, the discussion of "hard landing" and "soft landing" of the economy reflects whether people have evolved into a serious and spreading economic recession with the downside trend of the global economy. If the economic downlink pressure is large, but there are not many uncertain factors that exceed expectations, then this short -term economic downturn and decline are normal. Countries can take some economic stimulus measures for hedging, that is, "soft landing". But if you encounter some super -expected factors and surpass the macro -control category of some countries, it will have a great impact on the global economy. The economic "hard landing" of individual economic powers will impact the global economic operation. (Liu Dian Wang Pengjie)

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