The largest country in Central Asia, forcing Russia to make concessions

(⊙_⊙)

On July 4, Kazakhstan expressed his willingness to help Europe overcome oil and gas shortage. President Toccyev told EU Chairman Charles Michelle that Kazakhstan "has prepared to use its hydrocarbons to stabilize the world and the European market." The next day, Russia threatened to export Kazakhstan Petroleum by exporting to Kazakhstan by the port of New Roas.

Closing a pipeline will only force Kazakhstan to find other export channels

(Source: Eurasianet) ▼

Russia's public threats made the disasters of the two countries flipped from the table to the table. The two countries' jumping behaviors have lasted for a long time.

Since March of this year, the 海 (Lihai Petroleum Alliance) has not been able to output oil normally for various reasons. And Russia tried to use a decree to prevent Kazakhstan from exporting oil and gas exports, and this series of small actions were undoubtedly big. This time the court ban was a sudden administrative intervention that caught Haifang caught off guard.

If you don't open the gate, it's going to be broken

(Figure: One picture network) ▼

Beginning in March of this year, Victoria Abramqinko, the female deputy prime minister in charge of economic work in Russia, began an audit work on the "ктк-р" company. In the audit process, the company had oil leaks.

The oil that floats on the sea has spread on a large area

笔 also faced a fine of 5.3 billion rubles

(Source: Tellerreport) ▼

This incident was not big. On June 6, the company ordered self -examination and was preparing to recognize administrative violations. The deadline for administrative orders to the company's correction was by November 30, 2022, and the time was quite ample.

However, after Tocaev and the EU Chairman's statement, the Russian Transportation Supervision Bureau suddenly filed a lawsuit with the Silla District Court for 90 days. Work. The "ктк-公司" company requested the request to postpone the trial, but was directly rejected by the court.

I thought it would be okay after paying the fine

As a result, Russia killed a carbine and asked to suspend business and rectify

(Figure: Teellerreport) ▼

The pipeline can be said to be the most important lifeline of Kazakhstan's national economy, with a length of 1500 kilometers and an annual oil transfer of 67 million tons. This route is the main route of Kazakhstan's oil to the Western market, and 82 % of its crude oil exported to the external export has passed the pipeline. The oil provided by Kazakhstan to the world via the Port of New Rooster was about 1200-1.3 million barrels per day, accounting for one percent of the world's total consumption.

亚 Pipeline connects Central Asia and Black Sea ▼

After the various offsets of this spring, the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan estimated that the output of oil was 30-35 million tons, about $ 2.20-330 million. It should be known that from January to May, the total export volume of Kazakhstan crude oil was only $ 10.5 billion. This is also the economic loss caused by Russia's kicks under the table. It really wants to embargo for 30 days, how can it be?

No wonder there are Kazakh netizens lamented: "If you can take some detours for this money (refer to Russia)"

Can't try the water on the road? (Figure: CPC) ▼

生 The past life of the pipeline

Трубопроводный-каспийский (трубопроводный консорциум р р р) The full name is the Lihai Oil Pipeline (English name CPC). Although the name is in the Lili Sea, it has not passed through the Rili Sea. Instead, it spreads from the Kazakh grassland to Astraha North Gaoco entered the Black Sea from the port of Silla. That is, from the southern region of Kazakhstan's oil and gas, Russia is completely transit Russia.

The hydrocarbon compound resource hidden in the Kazakh area was finally discovered during the Soviet Union. Therefore, the oil pipeline was designed and built in the special complicated and difficult political and economic situation after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. It contains very important political and economic considerations.

Petroleum exports of resource countries around Kazakhstan and Castle

It has the meaning of opening up the "Lihai-Black Sea-Mediterranean-World" energy line

Both Russia and Kazakhstan are in the favorable chart (Figure: one picture network) ▼

After obtaining independence, Kazakhstan obtained the right to control underground resources, and how to transport it to foreign markets has become a major issue. As the largest international oil transportation project in the world, the formation of the Lihai Oil Pipeline (ктк-P) is not easy.

This idea was born in 1992, but only signed a shareholder agreement on December 6, 1996, forming a joint -stock company. On October 13, 2001, the pipeline was initially completed, and the first oil tanker was tried in the Marine Terminal near Voszek. By mid -2004, 了 reached 28.2 million tons of throughput capacity of the first stage plan. Today's 67 million tons of throughput is the result of nearly 20 years of work.

Although the pipeline is only 452 kilometers in Kazakhstan and less than one -third of the total length, about 90 % of the flowing pipelines are crude oil produced by Harbin.

Russia just in the Petrole of Kazakhs in Russia

Traveling to all parts of the world is busy using a boat

(Figure: One picture network) ▼

Judging from time progress, I know that there are many stories in it. The company has three sovereign countries holding shares -Russia, Kazakhstan, and Oman who later withdrawn. At the same time, there are a series of large overseas capitals, such as Chevron and Shells. It can be seen that the dispute between shareholders is an important reason for the slow signing of the project in the project. In addition, the project party also faces the tax demand of local authorities and the constant problems with the court. Therefore, when the construction plan of the first stage of the pipeline started construction in 1997, the Russian region authorities in the transit area deliberately slowed down the project speed and tried to get the greatest benefits from it.

"Let them go to the decision -making layer, let's go to the skin, right?

Our construction parties can be mixed with a basic salary of foreign workers. "

(Figure: One picture network) ▼

The person in charge of the Krasnodar area emotionally stated at the starting ceremony of May 1999 that if the oil company does not provide sufficient fuel for local farmers, they will "completely blast" all export pipes.

Fortunately, no one really used the explosive to deal with this project, and the pipeline part was completed in 2001. However, it was not permitted by Russia and Kazakhstan government agencies until April 29, 2003 that it took nearly two years. However, the pipeline can be put into use.

It's not easy to repair a pipeline, and you receive the "death threat" when you still move.

(Figure: CPC) ▼

By mid -2004, the oil pipeline reached the capacity limit of the first phase of development -28.2 million tons. The amount of oil pumping in 2010 can increase to 35 million tons. However, this is not enough, and it requires a greater increase.

However, the implementation process of expanding the pipeline capacity to 67 million tons is very complicated. The heterogeneity of shareholders and the interests of all parties have to be reached for another few years.

The expansion of production capacity means that it requires a thicker and more channels

And more oil storage equipment, how to repair these, whoever pays money is a problem

(Source: Nahopama) ▼

During this period, Russia completed the capital increase of the project, not only acquired 7%of Oman's stock, but also introduced Russian petroleum pipelines into a new consortium. This has given Russia a greater right to speak at this stage. Russia has also been able to raise tariffs on transit oil (from less than $ 30 per ton to $ 38), and reduce credit interest rates (from 12.66%to 6%per year), making this project a profitable asset for its own profit.

Many transactions have been reached under the table, just on the table

Vice Minister of Industry and Energy (left) and CPC Vice President (right)

(Figure: One picture network) ▼

Although the shareholders of the ктк signed a memorandum on expanding the capacity of the system in October 2008, the final investment decision did not make it until December 2010, and it was only started on July 1, 2011, and it was built for 8 years. There is a problem with the supervision and land acquisition of the expansion project. It has to be replaced by the contractor. The final project is doubled. The work originally planned to be completed in 2014 was actually completed in 2018.

In addition, the state -owned capital of the two countries began to acquire overseas capital during this period. The nationalization of the project also increased. Russia held 31%of the shares, while the state -owned capital of Kazakhstan held a total of 20.75%.

Through commercial acquisitions, the two countries have achieved the purpose of indirect holdings of project shares ▼

下 Under the Geography

From the beginning of the pipeline, its political significance is as important as the economic significance. This project is the flagship project of Russia and Kazakhstan in the context of "Eurasian".

The two leaders of Harbin State attach great importance to this

The current President Toccyev has been in person to open the channel in person

(Figure: One picture network) ▼

On March 24, 1994, the Russian federal government approved the decree to ensure the construction of a pipeline system exported from Kazakhstan. Just five days later, in Moscow, President Nazarbayev first expressed the "Eurasian economy Outlook of the Alliance. Of course, this symbolic history is not familiar with the Chinese.

Economically, the main export market of Kazakhstan is EU countries (40%), China (16.4%) ranked second, while Russia (11.5%) can only rank third. In addition, the vast majority of energy sources in Kazakhstan's export products. This energy pipeline from Russia's transit has undoubtedly greatly increased the attractiveness of the "Eurasian Economic Alliance" to Kazakhstan, especially in Kazakh's imports to Russia. In the case of decline year by year.

From a Russian perspective, of course, it wants to reduce this trade deficit

And become a large trading partner as much as possible in Kazakhstan ▼

Therefore, when Russia did all kinds of obstacles and setting off the table, it naturally greatly shocked the root of Russia's relations. On July 8th, Kazakhstan immediately announced the withdrawal of the 1995 independent international currency exchange rate committee. (This is largely symbolic, because the agreement has lost function.)

Kazakhstan first retreat to a group to warn

If Russia gets in an inch, the consequences

(Figure: Nexta Twitter) ▼

However, this move obviously contains the danger tendency to leave the Eurasian Economic Union, and finally forced Russia to make it quickly. On July 11, the Court of Krasnodar Border Period overturned the judgment of the lower courts (SNICSk was a city in the state) and replaced the administrative penalty of suspending the suspension of the Lixi Pipeline with a fine of 200,000 rubles (20,000 yuan). Essence Compared to the loss of 30 days of stopping, the fine of 20,000 yuan is really nine cattle. Russia raised the board high, and gently falling, it is bound to be about its own trade -offs.

Both parties point to the end, the conflict is temporarily suspended

The oil tank train of Sneitosk started again at ease

(Figure: Flickr) ▼

Bypassing Russia's alternative option

There is no doubt that this twists and turns will inevitably lead to whether Kazakh's consideration will continue to rely on Russia in the future. Because I really had a chance to choose in front of Kazakhstan.

In 1992, Turkey proposed to Kazakhstan the energy pipeline project that bypass Russia's "Baku-Di Bilis-Jeyhan" from the Mediterranean. And Nazarbayev was not available to this, and finally chose "Tengz-Silla Steel" through Russia's route to the Black Sea.

This route is almost Kazakhstan

But Russia's only choice to Europe ▼

The possibility of Russia's stopping of Kazakhstan's oil through the New Rossak Wharf is forcing Kazakhstan to re -adjust the supply. But in fact, Kazakhstan has no alternatives at present. This pipeline is the shortest and cheapest way to transport oil from Kazakhstan to Europe.

Other alternative options are:

Atra-Samara oil pipeline can eventually go out of Finland, and Kazakhstan has exported 15%of oil through this route. However, its production capacity does not allow an increase of more than 500,000 tons of delivery. And this line is still under the control of Russians. Rather than a replacement option, it is better to say that Kazakh's other 15%oil exports are also risky. The petroleum pipeline from Atra to Alashankou, but the conveying space that can be improved by this pipeline is limited, and 80 % of the 80 % of them transported from this pipeline are Russian crude oil. No wonder there are Kazakh netizens who advocate color. The most promising plan is undoubtedly the re -establishment of the oil -gas pipe gallery across the Lihai. Its advantage is that Azerbaijan itself has a mature pipeline system from Baku to Europe. However, considering the proportion of the pipelines and the cost of the construction spent, it is known that this is not a re -election overnight.

The main pipeline oil project line of Kazakhstan ▼

In addition, Russia itself is also a country, and there are many ways to intervene from it. Recently, Russia has opposed the construction of a natural gas pipeline of the Curdians on the grounds that the Richeli ecology is opposed to the construction of Turkmenistan.

Of course, Kazakhstan's possibility that oil and gas pipelines bypass Russia are not forced to be forced. Tocaev herself proposed a related plan. During his visit to Turkey on May 10, 2022, he discussed the issue of Kazakhstan's natural gas transported to Europe by Azerbaijan. Takayev mentioned in special statements: "The potential of the two countries' use of cross -Lihai international transportation routes is particularly important." This proposal was before Russia's actions.

Turkmenistan's gas transmission route

Originally planned directly to the southern EU natural gas corridor

(Figure: Turkmenistan Research Center of Lanzhou University) ▼

An important contradiction here is that regardless of whether Russia intentionally obstructs, the export of hydrocarbons is the main source of foreign exchange from Kazakhstan, and the European market cannot give up. In addition to independence, the consideration of Russia's consideration is also very important for economic considerations. Because once the Russian oil pipeline is fully integrated with Russian oil, Kazakh's crude oil must also be discounted.

It can be seen that Kazakhstan's major foreign exchange revenue products

All resources such as oil and gas, minerals

(Heng screen, source: KURSIV Kazakhstan National Bureau of Statistics) ▼

Energy experts have analyzed that another non-attractive place that passed the Atvra-Samara pipeline to transport oil is that mixing with Volga crude oil will make Kazakh's crude oil prices cheaper.

Therefore, Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Company will be renamed KEBCO (Kazakhstan Export Mixed Crude Oil) on July 4th. The company stated that this decision was to distinguish it with oil produced by Russia, "because of major geographical political changes recently."

Harbin oil: I am very noble, you are not worthy of you

(Figure: One picture network) ▼

In short, Russia's obstruction of crude oil exports is of course a lot of trouble, but even if Russia does not obstruct, crude oil from Russia's transit from Russia is not small. This undoubtedly prompted Kazakhstan to pursue new crude oil to the sea.

This incident is undoubtedly trouble for Russia. Because on the one hand, it needs to fight back in Europe with a big energy stick; on the other hand, it has to coordinate Eurasian partners who also make money by exported hydrocarbons to avoid becoming orphans. When the relationship between Russia and Europe is good, of course, we have money to make money together, but now it is inevitable to lose each other.

You can be willing to be together, but don't pull me Kazakhstan to share with Russia

(Source: International Economic Forum) ▼

Reference materials:

1. г г. евразийский. а реванш россии .: алгоритм, 2014.2.мукимджанова, р. м. страны центральной азии: азиатский вектор политики, научная книга, 2005, 2005, 2005, 2005,

3. против против строительства выступает газопровода газопровода https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2660741.html

4. из соглашения соглашения выходит выходит 1995 года межгосударственном комитете комитете комитете https://zonakz.net/2022/07/kazaxstan-vyxodit-ilelasheniya-SNG-1995-O-Mezhgosudenom-komitete/

5. торпедирована t t https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5421340

6. приостановить приостановить прокачку нефти может из. -Li-V-EVROPE-DEFICZIT-Nefti-I-Pochemu-Proizoshlo-POSLE-Peregovovaeva-S-ES/

6. ктк ктк добывайте: прокачаем, прокачаем! Https://www.ritmeurasia.org/news --2021-12-04-Chetvert-ktk-Dobyvajte-PROKACHAEM-57656-57656

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