Read several key issues in the competition between China and the United States

The following article comes from FT Chinese website, author Teng Bin Sheng

As the new crown epidemic and trade conflict further promoted the economic resistance of the economy, the economic connection between China and the United States has continued to weaken, and scientific and technological competition has become one of the main themes of the relationship between the two countries.

In this context, for Chinese companies, understanding the advantages and deficiencies of China and the United States in different fields is a necessary condition for winning opportunities in the future market competition. While building an innovation system through self -reliance and self -reliance, how to maintain effective technical communication with external exterior is also the key.

In today's article, Teng Bin Sheng, a professor of strategic science in the Yangtze River Business School, analyzed and judged the competition between Sino -US science and technology. You will understand: Why does the competition between China and the United States have intensified? What are the advantages and deficiencies in the competition between China and the United States? Where will the competition between China and the United States will eventually point to?

Author | Teng Bin Sheng

Source | FT Chinese website

Teng Bin Sheng

The Deputy Dean of the Strategy Professor of Strategic Studies in Changjiang Business School

The epidemic and trade conflicts have exacerbated the uncertainty of the global economy. At present, the economic connection between China and the United States has continued to weaken, and the competition between scientific and technological competition has become one of the main themes of the relationship between the two countries. Maintaining effective technical communication with the outside has become the key.

Competitive background

The comparison of China and the United States is changing. The "eastward rise and west" is obvious, the gap is shrinking, and the Chinese economy has greatly surpassed the United States.

In 2021, the total GDP of China exceeded US $ 17 trillion, close to 80%of the total US economy, and it is expected to surpass the United States by 2030.

The globalization of the United States has lost its momentum. In the past ten years, China's average annual contribution of 1/3 of global economic growth has become a new engine. China is the World Manufacturing Center. In 2019, the value -added of China's manufacturing value -added has increased to 28%, which is the sum of the added value of manufacturing in the United States and Japan, while the sum of developed countries has fallen to about 55%.

The American economy's "hollow" caused a serious negative impact, so it released the "Advanced Manufacturing Partner Plan", and the real economy and manufacturing have once again become the focus of global economic competition. In recent years, the dependence of the West has increasingly worried about China's supply chain, which has been very arrogant against the trend of globalization.

The new crown epidemic is swept, and many countries have adopted measures such as "sealed the city" and "stopping", which has caused the flow of people, logistics, and capital flow, forming two opposite effects:

On the one hand, global output is further concentrated in the short term, because at that time, only China could maintain normal large -scale production;

On the other hand, producing a small number of regions has a lower efficiency and higher cost, but to a certain extent, replacing Chinese products with high transportation costs to a certain extent.

In the long run, the new crown epidemic will further promote globalization. Western countries are determined to build a new regional trading system, and the regionalization of the industrial chain is obvious.

Status of competition

The new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial changes are reshaping economic growth. From the digital economy to the life economy, global competition is concentrated in "competition in the high point of science and technology".

The new scientific and technological revolution provides opportunities for the latter -developed countries to achieve technological catch -up, and countries have launched layouts around key areas. The leading role of the United States and China in the digital economy is increasing, and Europe and Japan are relatively lagging behind. The development model of the Sino -US economy is different. Scientific and technological strength is the main pillar of the United States to maintain global competitiveness. The development model of the United States is "technology -dominated". With multinational enterprises as the main body, controlling the highest -end technology chain technology, and deploying the industry chain to various countries around the world to deploy the industry chain Essence

China's model is to create a huge manufacturing capacity, fine industrial chain division of labor, form a scale economy of the manufacturing industry, and strengthen the root cause of the industrial chain in China.

In terms of science and technology, China has "followed" in most fields, a few fields "run together", and very few fields "lead". Core technology has always been the shortcomings of the Chinese economy. The gap is multi -directional. Talent training, number of patents, standard formulation, etc.

The scale and proportion of China's technology industry are still low. For example, the added value of China's information technology industry is about 31%of the United States. China's shortcomings in chips, materials, medicine and other fields are relatively obvious. How to ensure that the industry chain independent control can be an urgent issue of Chinese enterprises.

Made in China at a low -end industrial chain, it is easy to master the "card necks" of developed countries with high -end links. Key equipment, core components and basic software in Made in China are seriously dependent on imports and multinational enterprises. Although the United States has always been the leader of global technology, its position is challenging in some fields.

For example, artificial intelligence (AI), China's Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent, have established a complete AI business ecosystem with a large amount of data of rapid application, which is not available in the United States.

Competitive trend

The scientific and technological games of both China and the United States are fully developing. China's advantage is strong manufacturing capabilities and a stable epidemic situation in China. Western countries mainly rely on technical heritage and camp advantages.

We have the following judgments for the future competition.

1. The weakened economic connection between China and the United States

On the whole, the US "decoustal" policy of the United States is being implemented, and the closeness of economic relations between the two countries has decreased. In the fields of finance, energy, technology, isolation has become the theme. Plastic, this is huge for the United States.

Essezhe estimates that the decoupling in the field of information technology can lose 48%of the US market share and 30%of global market revenue.

The interests of American companies are not consistent with the government's willingness. They have huge benefits in China and still maintain business exchanges with most Chinese companies. For example, Tesla decided to build a second factory in Shanghai when the U.S. government called for "advanced manufacturing to return".

2. The world factory is difficult to succeed

The competition for manufacturing capabilities has exacerbated the distrust of the division of labor in the global industrial chain, and destroyed the basis of division of labor and global trade in the industrial chain. The rise of nationalism, coupled with the continuous epidemic, international trade, cross -border investment, population flow, and aviation freight have encountered unprecedented plummeted.

With the transition from the "encounter" to the "long -lasting war", the global industrial chain, industrial cluster, and manufacturing center will be reorganized. The global trading system will be further fragmented, layered, and regionalized. Reduce risks, and have implemented a "inside" policy, and the supply chain has a localization trend. China is unlikely to continue to play the role of the world factory. In the field of low -end manufacturing, China's labor cost advantage has disappeared, and the transfer of clothing and shoe industries to Southeast Asian countries cannot be contained. They will undertake large -scale, low -value, and population dense manufacturing.

China has proposed a "dual -cycle" strategy to partially replace global trade and digs deeply in domestic potential. After all, in many industries such as mobile phones and cars, China is the world's largest single market.

3. Decumbling reaction force

At present, the intention of the US government to promote the decoupling of China and the United States is very obvious, especially in the fields of key information technology, future communication, artificial intelligence and other fields to completely suppress Chinese enterprises.

Represented by the United States "Future Industry Act", the United States lay out on the future industry, focusing on supporting advanced manufacturing, quantum information science, artificial intelligence, biological security, and next generation of communication networks, etc. status.

The above is also an important part of China's "14th Five -Year Plan" economic development plan. There are the most complete industrial foundations in China. Although high -tech has shortcomings, the ability to ride on cutting -edge technology has formed.

The United States implements "single -point sanctions" to the core Chinese enterprises. This long -arm jurisdiction will force enterprises in various countries to choose the border stations in the short term and "campization". But in the middle and long term, Chinese companies have the opportunity to break through.

Taking the information technology industry as an example, domestic ecosystem subjects such as Hisilicon Chip and Kirin Software are growing.

The underlying technology, Android system, and window operating system of the Internet are public products provided by American companies to the world. In these areas, "card necks" will only destroy the technological innovation ecosystem of global open cooperation, and will only force Chinese companies to strengthen independent innovation. Strive to build your own "technical sovereignty".

China does not want to be decoupled, but if it is forced to strengthen independent technology, it will gradually weaken its dependence on American technology, and the result is further decoupling.

This is a dangerous road and no return, but once China establishes a core element independent of an external operating system, it will be disruptive for the existing world pattern.

The picture in the article comes from Tuwu's creativity, and the reprint needs to be authorized.

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