Stability of the economy's package policy continues to significantly effective in the second half of the year, the main indicators are expected to recover quarter by quarter

With the release of the "semi -annual report" of the Chinese economy, it can be seen that even in the second quarter, in the second half of the year, the GDP of my country has achieved a year -on -year growth of 2.5%, and the overall economic operation has shown a stable and rebounding rebound. situation.

How can the Chinese economy exert its efforts after the "mid -term entrance examination"? Many industry experts interviewed by the "Securities Daily" reporter believe that with the continuous results of a policy of stable economy, the third quarter will be an important stable growth window period. Overall, China's economy will continue in the second half of the year.

The economic growth rate in the second half of the year will be better than the first half of the year

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, under the depth of the main economic indicators in April, the Chinese economy still held up pressure in the second quarter to achieve positive growth, that is, GDP increased by 0.4%year -on -year. Judging from the data of GDP in the first half of the year, the data of 2.5%year -on -year, this also indicates that it is not difficult to achieve the development goals of the year in the second half of the year.

Shen Xinfeng, Assistant General Manager of the Northeast Securities Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that even with the economic environment before March this year, in order to achieve the development goals of about 5.5%of the year, a greater efforts still need to have a greater effort policy. Protecting can we work hard. At the end of March, the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai and other places was dragged on the annual economic growth beyond expectations. Therefore, at least 8%of the growth rate in the second half of the year can achieve the annual development goals. But from the year -on -year growth rate of GDP in recent years, it is difficult to achieve.

Shen Xinfeng believes that with the implementation of a policy of stable economy, from the data of June, it has been positively reflected. If the new and long -term loans of the enterprise are significantly higher than the high level of the same period of history, the confidence of enterprise production and investment has greatly improved, and infrastructure in fixed asset investment (without power, heat, gas and water production and supply industry), manufacturing industry Investment has improved significantly. It can be said that the existing stable economic policy is relatively sufficient. If the second half of the year can continue to be fully implemented and exert the actual benefits of the policy, this will form a strong policy to boost the effect. With the booster of the policy, it is expected that the economic year -on -year growth rate in the second half of the year will significantly better than the first half of the year. The year -on -year growth rate of GDP is expected to reach more than 4%.

Dongfang Jincheng Chief Macro analyst Wang Qing said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that in the second half of the year, with the continuous appearance of the stable growth policy, the economy will continue. The year -on -year growth rate of GDP will gradually return to the level of potential growth, and it is expected to reach about 5.0%and 5.5%, respectively. Combining the year -on -year growth rate of GDP in the first half of the year is 2.5%, the growth rate of GDP this year is expected to be between 4.1%and 4.5%this year.

"Considering the expectations of the epidemic and international geopolitical factors in the first half of the year far exceeding the expected economic growth goals at the beginning of the year, this actual growth level is not low." Wang Qing said that more importantly, with the gradual development of the steady growth policy Forces, the employment market will gradually repair, and it is expected that the unemployment rate at the end of the year is expected to fall under the control target of 5.5%.

Consumption still has a large room for rebound

Although the stability of China's economic stability in the second quarter was obvious, from a structural perspective, consumer data is still slightly "sluggish". According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the second quarter, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 4.6%year -on -year, which was significantly behind the growth rate of GDP in the second quarter.

"Under the influence of the epidemic, the consumption scenario of residents is limited and the consumption psychology is more cautious. In addition, the income of some people is affected to some extent, so consumption is often impacted and the restoration is often slow." In Wang Qing's view, consumption restoration in the second half of the year will be the maintenance of consumption restoration will be It is a problem that the macro policy needs to be solved.

However, consumer data has begun to appear, especially since June since June has obvious consumption. According to data from the State Administration of Statistics, the introduction of consumer policies such as passenger car purchase tax halves and other consumption policies has been launched, which has promoted the improvement of commodity consumption such as automobiles and home appliances. In June, the retail sales of auto, household appliances and audiovisual equipment above the limit increased by 13.9%and 3.2%year -on -year, respectively, which was significantly recovered from the previous month.

Wang Qing believes that this shows that the policy is still promising in promoting consumption. In the second half of the year, as long as the policy is found to be aimed at the effort, including the introduction of measures for the sales of large consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances, and the great efforts to issue consumer vouchers and consumer subsidies to low -income groups. Back up space. In general, the macro policy is expected to focus on consumption in the second half of the year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods will rebound to about 4.5%on the basis of the first half of the year. The possibility of performance is expected.

A researcher from the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center did not want to name the "Securities Daily" reporter that due to the effective epidemic prevention and control, the impact of the epidemic on consumption will gradually decrease under the general policy of "dynamic clearing". It is expected that it is expected The consumption situation in the second half of the year will be improved. Among them, the growth rate of automobile consumption is expected to continue to rise, especially new energy vehicle consumption has grown rapidly. On the whole, the low growth rate of the second half of the year or the whole year may be higher than 7%in the second half of the year. It is expected that the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods throughout the year is about 3%to 4.5%.

The property market will recover at the end of the third quarter

Compared with the stability of other economic data in the second quarter, for real estate development investment, the question of how to stabilize it in front of them. Data show that in the first half of the year, real estate development investment decreased by 5.4%year -on -year. Among them, the real estate development investment in the second quarter decreased by 9.1%year -on -year, which was in sharp contrast to the overall increase of fixed asset investment year -on -year. Shen Xinfeng believes that the fundamental reason why real estate development and investment have not yet stabilized is that corporate funds are under great pressure, and the ability and willingness of land acquisition and new construction are insufficient.

"In the second quarter, the decline in real estate development investment has little to do with the epidemic. The main thing is that the industry itself is in the downward cycle." Wang Qing believes that considering that the current mortgage interest rate is still higher than the general loan interest rate, and it is at the historical average level, it is judged to judge In the second half of the year, in order to promote the property market as soon as possible, the LPR quotation of more than 5 years continues to be driven by the drive, and it is expected that there is still a lot of downlink space in the mortgage interest rate. This means that the real estate market is likely to recover at the end of the third quarter before and after the end of the third quarter, which in turn drives real estate construction, investment, land purchase and other indicators to fully bottom out. The real estate market is expected to restore a virtuous circle in the second half of the year, which will be the key point to alleviate the downward pressure on the economy.

It is worth mentioning that, based on the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, although the sales area and sales of commercial housing in the first half of the year have decreased by more than 20%year -on -year, since May, with the gradual weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the continued property market regulation policy continues The continuity of significant effects and stability of the economy's package, the scale of real estate market transactions has bottomed out, and the cumulative sales area and sales of commercial housing sales have been relieved. That is, from January to June, the sales area and sales of commercial housing narrowed 1.4 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points respectively compared with the first five months. In June, the year -on -year decrease of 13.5 percentage points and 16.9 percentage points were narrowed from May in June.

58 Zhang Bo, Dean of the Branch of Anju House Real Estate Research Institute, said at the interview with the Securities Daily reporter that in general, the inherent power of the current real estate development investment is still insufficient, and the resumption of market confidence is facing great pressure. In the future, more flexible policies need to be introduced on the side of real estate companies to achieve steady growth in investment while preventing and controlling risks.

Securities Daily reporter Du Yumeng

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