Biden explained "Why do I go to Saudi Arabia", but the other party is very sober ...
Author:Look at the think tank Time:2022.07.19
On July 16, local time, the US President Biden ended the first Middle East during his tenure and returned to Washington. According to the media, Bayeng's trip to the Middle East, including urging the production of oil to increase oil in the Gulf, has almost no significant results, and all of them have fallen.
US President Biden, who was filmed in Washington, the capital of the United States on March 4, 2022. (Shin of Xinhua News Agency, Photo Shen Ting)
Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Middle East Research Institute of Shanghai Foreign Languages University, said that "Bayeng's trip with three major issues -appease the Middle East allies to solve European energy issues; form the" Middle East Air Defense Alliance ", which is intended to establish the" Middle East version of NATO 'for Iran' ' ;
In fact, since Biden's ruling, the strategic focus of the United States has shifted to competition, showing a strategic contraction situation in the Middle East. However, with the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, the United States faces internal and diplomatic difficulties, and the Bayeng government realized that the support and cooperation of the Middle East allies, especially the energy supply, to compete against Russia. It can be said that Biden's Middle East trip is more like "utilitarianism".
Wen | Wang Lu
This article is reproduced from the WeChat public account "International" (ID: Pengpainews907) under the surging news. The original first was released on July 14, 2022. ", The original text has been cut, which does not mean watching think tank views.
1
Oil is the "number one task"
Since the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, international oil prices have soared. Although Biden has previously tried to dilute the visit to Saudi Arabia aims to reduce fuel prices, it is still generally believed that in the case of high inflation in the United States and long -term downturn in Biden's support rate, Biden's "number one task" may be around Do not persuade the Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia to increase production capacity and reduce oil prices.
Biden's signed article published in the Washington Post on July 9th, entitled "Why I Go to Saudi Arabia", directly pointed out the intention of visiting Saudi Arabia. Biden said in the text that the purpose of his trip was to strengthen the "strategic partnership" of the two countries. He also said that because Russia was sanctioned after military operations in Ukraine, the energy supply in the Middle East was very critical, and "the global trade and supply chain we relied on were extremely important."
But can Biden get the promise of increasing production in Saudi Arabia and other countries?
After meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed, Biden said that Saudi Arabia is expected to further increase oil supply and eventually reduce domestic fuel costs in the United States. However, Saudi Arabia is more cautious, and in a joint statement, it only reiterates the promise of "common stability to stabilize the global energy market."
According to British media reports, Saudi Foreign Minister Jubail emphasized at another briefing that whether Saudi Arabia ’s increase in production will be based on continuous evaluation of the market. He said that oil is a commodity, not a "political weapon".
The senior researcher at the US Strategy and International Research Center Ben Cahill told Bloomberg: "Saudi oil production seems unlikely to increase significantly ... The idle capacity of Saudi and OPEC+is very limited, they must be carefully managed." It is added that Saudi Arabia is expected to issue some soothing statements to help balance the global oil market, meet global demand, and support the economic growth and stability of importing countries.
President of the energy consulting agency Rapidan Energy Group and former White House official, Bob McNelley, also analyzed to Bloomberg that Saudi Arabia and the UAE may make a pan -production commitment to stabilize the crude oil market, but they will continue to maintain "idle idleness idle "Production capacity" to cope with the tightening supply that is expected to occur later this year.
In fact, before the Middle East trip, Bayon had obtained the corresponding increase in yield increase through pressure on OPEC+. In early June, OPEC+agreed to increase the yield of 648,000 barrels per day in July and August, far exceeding the current increase of 432,000 barrels per day, which also exceeded market expectations. This means that OPEC+increased its oil supply by about 50%.
In this regard, Liu Zhongmin analyzed that "the Middle East country has a certain ability in stabilizing energy prices and making up for the gap in Russia's energy supply. Bayden's visit aims to further consolidate the above -mentioned production increase commitment." Increasing horsepower production does not mean that energy can be quickly transported to Europe. Whether it is pipeline transportation or maritime transport, it still takes a certain period of time to land.
In order to promote Saudi Arabia to continue to "cooperate" the United States in the energy field, on the eve of Biden's opening, the White House also released a "good" signal to Saudi Arabia. Reuters quoted people familiar with the matter on July 12 that "the U.S. government is considering losing the ban on the sale of offensive weapons on Saudi Arabia, but the final decision still depends on whether Saudi can terminate military interference." In fact, in recent months, in recent months Saudi officials have repeatedly put pressure on the United States and asked to cancel offensive weapons forbidden sale.
Facing the recent interaction between the United States and Saudi Arabia, Liu Zhongmin analyzed that the behavior of the two sides is more like a game, that is, Saudi Arabia with the cooperation of the energy field in exchange for US military support. Although this trip may to some extent, Biden appeases the allies, in Liu Zhongmin's view, the Bayeng government is still facing a "embarrassment" situation in the Middle East. Investment is also declining with security and security capabilities in the region.
2
It may be difficult for the establishment of the "Middle East version of NATO"
In addition to striving for the promise of increasing production of oil -producing oil countries such as Saudi Arabia, the Bayeng government wants to draw allies and the intention of forming the "Middle East version of NATO" is clear.
The White House had previously released news that Bayeng discussed with Israel and Arab allies during the visit to respond to "threats from Iran" and strengthen cooperation in the field of air defense.
However, some countries have clearly stated that "do not buy it."
Iraqi Prime Minister Cadi Mi said on July 15 that Iraq did not join any regional military alliance in the future. Saudi Foreign Minister Fasal said he did not know that there was any discussion about the Gulf-Israel Defense Alliance, and Saudi Arabia did not participate in such negotiations.
Earlier, the Israeli National Defense Minister Gandz confirmed to report to the Israeli Parliament's National Defense and Foreign Affairs Commission in late June that Israel and its regional allies are under the leadership of the United States to create a "regional air defense alliance" to deal with Iranian missiles and drones threats. Essence
Iranian officials have been deeply dissatisfied with the conception of the so -called "Middle East Air Defense Alliance". The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Nasser Canni pointed out in a statement on July 12 that in order to make the Middle East more stable and secure, the United States must stop differentiation of regional countries, export weapons to this area, respect the sovereignty of various countries in the region, Complete with territory and stop making "Iranian phobia".
This is the landmark of the landmark of the landmark building in Tehran, the capital of Iran on January 1, 2021. (Photo by Xinhua News Agency, Ahamad Hara Bases)
Kanney warned that if the policy of "correcting these errors and triggering crises", the United States will become the "main responsible party" of the unstable unstable in the Middle East.
At the same time as the United States sells the Middle East Air Defense Alliance to the Middle East, the negotiations between the United States and Iraqi resumed the contract around the Iran nuclear agreement continue. "On the one hand, the United States is promoting the negotiations of the Iran nuclear agreement, and on the other hand, it is trying to establish an alliance against Iran. This kind of policy of Iran is contradictory and reflects the two sides of the United States." Liu Zhongmin analyzed that this may cause stimulating that stimulated stimulation Iran is difficult to accept, and may even suspend negotiations in the Iran nuclear agreement, and respond to the challenges of the anti -Iranian camp with more bold nuclear development and radical countermeasures.
From the perspective of feasibility, the United States still faces many obstacles to form the "Middle East Air Defense Alliance". Politico analysis of American political news websites said that the distrust and technical differences between countries in the Middle East means that the establishment of any form of alliances may take several years. Peninsula TV also believes that there is no consensus between the Middle East countries. Taking Iran's issue as an example, many Gulf Arab countries believe that dialogue with Iran is the safest way to solve security concerns.
It is worth noting that the safety goal of the Bayeng government in the Middle East is not only the establishment of the Middle East allies system for Iran, but also the consideration of strategic competition in the country. Just as Biden previously wrote in the signed article of the Washington Post, "As the president of the United States, maintaining the strength and security of our country is my job. We must fight against Russia's" aggression "and let us be in the best The position is better than the competition with China. "
NATO Secretary -General Stoltenberg also promised during the Madrid Summit that it would provide more support for Africa and the Middle East to contrary to the increasing influence of Russia and other countries in these regions.
Talking about Bayeng's deeper strategic considerations this trip to the Middle East, Liu Zhongmin analyzed, "From the perspective of the strategic deployment of the United States, despite the decline in the strategic position of the Middle East, Biden also realized that the Middle East is in the United States in the United States in the United States It is an important central link to deal with competition with major powers such as Russia. Therefore, the United States wants to re -grasp the dominance of security in the Middle East. "
However, the United States wants to use the Middle East to curb Russia. Reuters reports that the Gulf country represented by Saudi Arabia has also tried to avoid "selection stations" between the United States and Russia, and there is no sign of indicating that Saudi Arabia is preparing to sacrifice long -term relationships with Russia in exchange for short -term diplomatic benefits from the United States. Liu Zhongmin also believes that considering frequent exchanges with Russia, most Middle East countries are unwilling to offend Russia too much.
According to the Saudi media "Arab News" polls, about 66%of the Arab countries in West Asia and North Africa held a neutral position on Russia and Ukraine. The West has a dual standard for the Ukraine crisis and the Middle East conflict.
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