Global economic recession Domestic economic recovery is expected to look forward to the "second half" of A shares

While China's economic growth is returning to the right track, the macro environment outside China may face greater challenges. It is expected that the probability of a "mild" decline in the next 24 months of the United States and the global economy will be 48%.

Author: Liang Ji

Figure: Tuwa Creative

Guide

One || Goldman Sachs believes that although the Chinese stock market has rebounded from a low valuation, it will still lead other global markets.

， || The most intense stage of interest rate hikes is about to pass, and further fermentation is expected to shorten the entire interest rate hike cycle.

Since the bottom of April, A shares have gone out of a wave of gently rising independence.

In the first half of this year, under the circumstances of tightening foreign liquidity and intensified decline, the major European and American stock indexes fell; A shares performed well under the support of domestic liquidity easing and the support of further stability in the second half of the year. Recently, in the second half of 2022, many institutions are optimistic about the "second half" of A shares.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15, the initial accounting, the GDP of domestic product (GDP) in the first half of the year (GDP) was 5.626 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5%year -on -year; of which, the second quarter of GDP was 2.925 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 0.4%. The National Bureau of Statistics stated that the decline in major economic indicators in May was narrowed, economic stabilization rose in June, and the economic realization was growing in the second quarter. At the same time, the National Bureau of Statistics also pointed out that the risk of world economic stagnation risks has risen, the policies of major economies are tightening, and external instability and uncertain factors have increased significantly.

On July 13, local time, the US Department of Labor released the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The US June CPI increased by 9.1%year -on -year. At the level of inflation, the market is expected to adopt a more aggressive interest rate hike rhythm to further impact the asset market.

The investment group strategy team of Goldman Sachs Investment Research Department recently issued a research report saying that China has returned to the right track, and the United States and the global economic recession have emerged. Goldman Sachs pointed out that macroeconomic data in May shows that the relevant impact of the previous round of new crown pneumonia's epidemic has gradually eased, the epidemic prevention and control measures are normalized, and economic activities are gradually returning to normal. The recovery is expected to reach 5.0%and 17.5%of economic growth year -on -year and month -on -month economic growth. However, while China's economic growth is returning to the right track, the macro environment outside China may face greater challenges. It is expected that the probability of a "mild" decline in the next 24 months of the United States and the global economy will be 48%.

The institution sees the second half of A shares

From the beginning of the year to the end of April, the A -shares went down again in geopolitical conflicts and epidemic control. After visiting the bottom of the market at the end of April, A shares ushered in a wave of continued rising markets. From April 27th to July 15th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 11.84%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 21.6%, and the GEM index increased by 29.73%. During the period, the new energy sector rebounded particularly strong, and foreign capital was particularly optimistic about the consumer sector. The northbound capital continued to flow into the layout.

Wind data shows that from January to June 2022, the northern direction funds were net inflow of 16.775 billion yuan, 3.980 billion yuan, -45083 billion yuan, 6.30 billion yuan, 16.867 billion yuan, and 72.960 billion yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 71.799 billion yuan. In June, a sharp net inflow of 72.96 billion yuan hit a single month in a single month, and the single -month net inflows since the opening of the interconnection mechanism, showing that foreign capital still has strong confidence in A shares.

Chen Guo, chief strategy analyst of CITIC Construction Investment, divided the rhythm of north-directional funds from the time node, that is, in January tightening and heating up, the risk aversion in February-March, the view of the epidemic in April, the background of May, and the acceleration flow in June. It pointed out that the fundamental impact stack of liquidity pressure is the root cause of the outflow of foreign capital.

As for the rapid inflow of the northbound capital, Chen Guo believes that the domestic aspect has gradually warmed up; overseas, the inflation situation in the United States and Europe has further deteriorated, and the duration and intensity are high. Under the expectation of domestic recovery and decline in the United States and Europe, the rapid inflow of funds from the end of May to the end of June is nearly 94 billion; from the perspective of the style section, the configuration of the funds of the configuration of the market is more accurate, and the configuration disk trading disk funds are added to the warehouse. Growing up the market leading market. He also pointed out that it should be noted that the two -way fluctuations of funds under the current volume will also increase. In the long run, foreign -funded allocation of A shares is still the general trend.

Lang Chengcheng, the general manager of the Furong Fund Research Department, told the Economic Observation Network that the current macro environment is still on the background of the basic direction and relatively loose liquidity, the inter -bank interest rate is still low, and the short -term economy is still in the slow recovery situation. There are frequent dispersion, so you don't need to worry about the short -term steering of monetary policy. From the perspective of trend, the third quarter is still the economic restoration period, and with the fundamental recovery of the fundamentals, it spreads to various industries.

On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national economic operation in the first half of the year. Data show that GDP in the first half of 2022 increased by 2.5%year -on -year, and GDP increased by 0.4%year -on -year in the second quarter. From the perspective of industries, the first half of the year, the secondary industry, and the tertiary industry increased by 5.0%, 3.2%, and 1.8%year-on-year, respectively; these three data in the second quarter were 4.4%, 0.9%, and -0.4%, respectively.

According to Cheng Shizhen, Chief Economist of Guo Bank International, from the three major engines on demand side, exports are still the main driving items. Investment has formed strong support under the policy of policy, and consumption is tested by stress. Cheng Shi believes that in the second half of the year, the sunrise west of the east, the Chinese economy is expected. The reason includes: first, the stable economic policy that has moved forward in the early stage will be concentrated in the second half of the year. The orderly recovery of the chain will play a role in continuously activating the subject of the economy; the third is that the stable situation in China's price is basically controllable than the world; the fourth is that the effectiveness of financial support for the real economy recovery will continue to appear; the fifth is the help of capital inflows to the Chinese economy to help the Chinese economy. It will be enhanced. The Western Securities Strategic Team stated that the profitability of A -share has a strong correlation with the macroeconomic. This correlation is not only reflected at the overall level, but also has a relatively obvious relationship at the specific sector level.

Goldman Sachs believes that although the Chinese stock market has rebounded from a low valuation, it will still lead other global markets. It pointed out that following the strong recovery and leading performance in the past three months, the Chinese stock market price -earnings ratio (11.5 times) is close to the historical median valuation level, and the market stock risk premium is close to the long -term average. Recent market rebounds-under the downturn of profit, the valuation reorganization leads the market rebound, which means that the market may be in the "expectation" stage in the "despair-expectation-growth-optimistic" market cycle. Compared with the S & P 500 Index's valuation discounts, the Chinese stock market has narrowed significantly. At present, the risk return of China's stock market has become more balanced compared to a few months ago. Under the support of various macroeconomic, policies, periodic, periodicals, and positioning, the Goldman Sachs Investment Portrait strategy team believes that the Chinese stock market will still lead other global markets.

Nomura Oriental International Securities said that maintaining the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index 2022 profit growth of 4.3%and a prediction of profit growth in 2023; it believes that the Chinese economy is expected to gradually stabilize and recover in the second half of the year after stimulating the policy. Valuation rebound.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, Nomura believes that the recovery of the US economy and the impact of the epidemic facing the domestic economy will become a factor in the first half of this year. However, with the deepening of the Fed's emphasis on high inflation and the continuous increase of domestic economic stimulus policies, the fundamental differences between China and the United States are expected to further expand. A stronger domestic demand is expected to drive A shares to continue to win overseas markets in the second half of the year, bringing more significant relative benefits.

Outside market pressure is intensified

On July 13, local time, the US Ministry of Labor released the June CPI by 9.1%year -on -year, significantly exceeding the market expectations of 8.8%. Earlier, the Federal Reserve has raised the previous interest rate hike from 50 basis points to 75 basis points because inflation in May. Fighting inflation. That night, the US President Biden issued a statement saying that inflation is unacceptable and will reduce the price of gasoline to provide the Fed's room for anti -inflation. After the inflation data was announced, the US stocks fell severely, and then the decline narrowed.

Xiong Yuan, the chief economist of Guosheng Securities, said in the report that although the possibility of the US CPI reached a new high at present, it is certain that the space that continues to rise is not large, and the fall in the fourth quarter is a high probability event. In terms of monetary policy, in the neutral situation, the Fed will stop raising interest rates at the end of the year or early next year. , Correspondingly, the earlier will stop raising interest rates. Therefore, the impact of inflation on the market tends to passivation, and the subsequent market transaction logic will focus on the game of economic recession and the Federal Reserve.

Nomura Dongfang pointed out that the recent accelerated tightening of financial conditions and the general weakness of risk assets may have a non -linear impact on economic growth, and the risk of declining the US economy is further increasing. It thinks. In addition to further tightening of financial conditions in the future, the suppression of high inflation's crackdown on consumer confidence and interest rate hikes on interest rate sensitivity will have a negative impact on economic growth. The US economy may enter the recession in the second half of this year.

In addition, the US stock market has gradually begun to show the negative impact of wages and prices on corporate profits. The first quarter financial reports of Wal -Mart and Tajit both reflected the suppression of rising prices, obstruction of logistics, and rising employment costs to the profitability of high -manpower costs. In addition, the market has gradually appeared in the market's expected expectations such as advertisers.

In May of this year, the consumer giant Wal -Mart and Tajit Department Store have not released the first quarterly report and bring the collapse market. The financial report shows that Tagit Department Store achieved a revenue of US $ 25.17 billion in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 4%year -on -year; net profit was cut to US $ 1.09 billion, a decrease of 51.9%; Tagit's stock price fell 24.87%on the day. Wal -Mart also fell 11.4%due to the expected stock price on the day of the announcement. According to the financial report, the continuous and high -corporate inflation has gradually eroded the profit of corporate profits, including significant growth in products, raw materials and wages.

Luca Paolini, chief strategist of Switzerland asset management, believes that as central banks in various countries put pressure on the currency status of most parts of the world, the risk of economic recession is rising. With the gradual relaxation of the restrictions on the new crown epidemic, China's stocks have also been adjusted to the strong rebound of the economy to cope with the economy. Although the market rebounds obvious, the currency condition has supporting effects, and China's stock valuation is still attractive. In addition, the uncertainty around scientific and technological supervision seems to be weakening. Xia Fengjing, manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund, told the Economic Observation Network that the current A shares are more of the rising technical restoration and the re -confirmation of the bottom range. At the policy level, it will continue to grow up, and it is expected that the real estate regulation policy will be further adjusted and optimized. In terms of overseas markets, the most intense stage of interest rate hikes is about to pass. Further fermentation is expected to shorten the entire interest rate hike cycle. At the beginning of next year and even the end of this year, interest rate cuts may rise. Therefore, in the third quarter, the market may still be a bottoming stage, waiting for the improvement of data and changes in expectations.

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