After learning the semi -annual transcript of "steady and good", how is the trend of my country's economy in the second half of the year?

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On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released data to announce the economic development of my country's economic development in the first half of 2022. According to preliminary accounting, the GDP (GDP) in the first half of the year (GDP) was 56264.2 billion yuan, which was calculated at an unchanged price, a year -on -year increase of 2.5%.

Since the beginning of this year, the international environment has become more complicated and severe. Domestic epidemic has been exuded, which has been significantly increasing, and economic development is extremely unusual. The year -on -year increase of 2.5%of the results held up huge downward pressure and stabilized the economic market. After handing out this difficult transcript, how is my country's economic trend in the second half of the year? Let's listen to the analysis of these economists.

It is expected to continue to keep up

Looking back on the economic operation trajectory in the first half of this year, the economic start of my country's economy was good in the first two months. In late March, it was impacted by the impact of the epidemic rebound and the Ukrainian crisis in late March, and the downward pressure on the economy increased sharply. Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, said that my country's economy increased by 2.5%year -on -year in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter to achieve positive growth. Such achievements are very difficult to fully reflect the toughness and stamina of my country's economic development. It is also a fiscal policy. The results of monetary policy, industrial policy, and employment policy.

Yuan Da, the director of the National Economic Comprehensive Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, analyzed from the aspects of industrial operation and market demand. It was believed that various policies for the stability of the economy were further effective, and the economy was expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year.

From the perspective of industrial operations, summer grains have been harvested again. After the short -term decline in April, industrial operations returned to positive growth in May. In June, it continued to accelerate. The monthly manufacturing procurement manager index returns to the expansion range, and the service industry has improved.

From the perspective of market demand, investment and exports have obvious role, and residents' consumption continues to rise. The number of new projects in the first five months increased by 26.1%year -on -year, and the total investment of newly started projects increased by 23.3%. As the epidemic was effectively controlled, residents' consumption recovered steadily, and the market consumption was significantly warmed during the Dragon Boat Festival. In June, the national movie box office increased significantly by 1.7 times over the previous month.

With the continuous emergence of high -efficiency overall epidemic prevention and control and the effectiveness of economic and social development, the effect of macro policy effects is further released, and the economy is expected to continue to rise and operate in a reasonable range in the second half of the year.

"Stable and good" to continue to release the potential of domestic demand

During the two sessions this year, the government work report proposed that China's GDP growth rate of 5.5%in 2022. From the growth rate of 2.5%to 5.5%, what are the aspects of my country's economy in the second half of the year? From the perspective of Zhang Haibing, deputy dean of the Wanbo New Economic Research Institute, the current exports, investment, and consumption of "three -driving troiders" that drive economic development have different situations: exports are very powerful, investment is exerting force, and consumption is weak.

From the data point of view, whether it is the total retail sales of social consumer goods or the consumption expenditure of residents, the overall performance is not very good. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 0.7%negative growth, and the overall decrease of 4.6%in the second quarter. The per capita consumption expenditure of residents across the country has the impact of the price factors. The actual growth in the first half of the year was only 0.8%. There are reasons for the control of the epidemic, but in fact, consumption is more affected by the growth rate of residents' income and revenue expectations. At the moment when economic growth power structure changes, consumption should play a greater role.

Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China International Economic Exchange Center, believes that the second half of the year's economic growth goals in the second half of the year, the first difficulty of economic recovery is the stable demand, especially consumer demand, the current urban society such as Shanghai and Beijing The total retail sales of consumer goods have not yet stabilized.

In the face of difficulties, Zhang Yansheng summarized three points of resumption of work, construction, and precise policy. The first is to promote resumption of work and re -production. From the perspective of its own economic and life recovery, resumption of work is the most important in the second half of the year. Especially for industrial and commercial households and small and medium -sized enterprises, we must continue to implement 33 measures in six aspects and make appropriate supplements; The second is to comprehensively promote the construction of infrastructure construction; the third is to strive to accurately introduce measures for direct consumption to allow residents to spend stable consumption money, directly generate demand, and drive the recovery of market entities, small and medium -sized enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households.

[This article is integrated in Xinhua News Agency, China Economic Network, 21st Century Economic Herald, etc.]

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