New housing and second -hand housing transactions in key cities have increased for two consecutive months.

The trend of differentiation still has some cities to recover and accelerate

With the densely introduced property market support policies since May, the mortgage interest rates at the national level have ushered in two "down reduction", and the property market transactions have a gentle recovery.

For Dongguan City, which has issued several property market support policies during the year, on July 4, the Dongguan Housing and Urban Construction Bureau issued a new policy- "Notice on Strengthening Classification Guidance and Optimizing Housing Purchasing Policy (Dongjian [2022] No. 7) "(Hereinafter referred to as" Notice "). This time, the "relaxation" of the policy involved aimed at the purchase restriction policy of one of the core methods of the property market.

According to incomplete statistics from the middle finger research, as of now, at least more than 180 cities have introduced nearly 500 real estate market support policies during the year. Among them, in May and June alone, 90 cities and 85 cities nationwide introduced nearly 300 regulation policies related to the real estate market. It can be seen that the city market supports policy in the past two months is wide and frequent.

中指数据显示，5月份至6月份，重点100城新建商品住宅成交面积同比降幅持续收窄；再从环比数据看，100城新建商品住宅成交面积已在5月份出现环比转增，且6月份环比Continue to grow. According to preliminary statistics, in June, the area of ​​new commercial housing in 100 cities increased by about 50%month -on -month, narrowing to 27%year -on -year.

In terms of second -hand housing, according to data from the Shell Research Institute, the transaction volume of second -hand housing monitored in 50 cities also continued to grow in May and June, with a month -on -month increase of 14%and 25%.

Dongfang Jincheng Chief Macro analyst Wang Qing said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that the recovery of new housing and second -hand housing sales in the past two months is influenced by the densely promulgated property market support policies in various places. On the one hand and May in May The mortgage interest rate "double -decrease (May 15th nationwide's first settlement interest rate lower limit to 20 basis points; the effect of 15 basis points of the central bank's 5 -year LPR quotation on May 20) has begun to reflect; on the other hand, some previous delayed delayed previous delay Signed a concentrated transaction.

"From the current data, although the trend of recovering the real estate market sales terminal in June, the trend of differentiation of property market differentiation in various places still exists. Therefore, it is difficult to say that real estate sales data has appeared at the inflection point at the national level. At present, there are more more. The recovery acceleration of some cities. "Zhang Bo, the dean of the 58 Anju House Real Estate Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that as far as the buyers' confidence is concerned, the adjustment of the real estate policy is only one of the influencing factor, and and the factors of it, and the real estate policy is only one of the influencing factor, and and the factors of it, and the real estate policy is only one of the influencing factor, and and the factors of it, and the real estate policy is only one of the influencing factor, and and the real estate policy. Not all.

It should be noted that although there are certain one -sidedness of the property market transaction data provided by the above -mentioned real estate institutions, to a certain extent, this can also "spy" the trend of the transaction of the property market.

For the data -related data involved in June that the National Bureau of Statistics, in Wang Qing's view, considering this round of housing market policy adjustments with the recent "double drop" marked by the mortgage interest rate, it is expected to have a large market policy adjustment. The decline will be further narrowed. Judging from the overall situation of sales, housing prices, investment, and land markets, it is said that the difficulty in the real estate market in June is still more difficult. The reason for the reason is that it takes a certain amount of time to transmit the property market policy to the market, and its response order is usually recovering the property market transaction, the housing price stops, and then transmitted to the investment terminal. Finally, the land market improves.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, Chen Wenjing, the market research director of the Division of the Index Research Index, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that at present, some cities have remained relatively restrained, and future policy efforts are expected to further strengthen. In the short term, before the real estate market resumes a stable operation, the frequency of urban policies may remain at a faster pace, and the policies at both ends of supply and demand are still room for space. In the case of optimism, the sales area of ​​commercial housing is expected to increase slightly year -on -year in the second half of the year, driving the year -on -year decrease of the annual sales area of ​​about 7%. (Reporter Du Yumeng)

[Editor in charge: Li Tong]

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