Miao Leru, Honorary Vice President of the China Real Estate Association: The scale of the real estate market will change from an annual innovation to a balanced development

On September 29th, at the 12th China Value Real Estate Annual Conference hosted by the Daily Economic News, Miao Leru, Honorary Vice President of the China Real Estate Association, gave a keynote speech on the theme of "About the current situation, policy, and trend of real estate From the current real estate situation, policy hopes, and the trend of the third and fourth quarters, the dilemma and solutions encountered in the real estate industry.

Miao Leru believes that the development of the real estate industry is imbalanced and inadequate mainly manifested in 5 aspects. Market differentiation between cities and regions, large gaps in the quality gap between the old and urban and rural residents, low housing quality standards, backward construction technology, digital technology, digital technology The promotion and application of prefabricated buildings has just started, and under high turnover and high housing prices, corporate liabilities cross the third line and household home leverage, and the economic development is excessively relying on real estate bubbles. In addition, real estate intermediary services are not standardized, and the construction services of green and smart living areas are far away.

Miao Leu

Promote the transformation of the industry development model

Miao Leu first introduced the current real estate situation.

Since the beginning of this year, the real estate market has shown a downward trend, and it is currently in the initial stage. Miao Leru believes that with the continuous improvement of the long -term mechanism of the real estate market, due to the gradual performance of urban policies, the real estate market is expected to stabilize and stabilize, maintain stable and healthy development, and gradually improve the impact on the economy.

Judging from the three main indicators of the national real estate development investment growth, the sales area of ​​commercial housing, and sales from January to July 2022, the decline in development investment has narrowed, and the sales area and sales are actually actually from April to June. There is a momentum of bottom consolidation, but the whole situation is still lower than expected.

In the first half of this year, the full -caliber sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 51%year -on -year. It was something that had never happened ever. Why did real estate decline hugely?

Miao Leru believes that in the case of high debt in housing companies, the decline in credit and capital liquidity has caused a decline in cliff. When there is a problem with the liquidity of the enterprise, the housing may become a bad tail building, so the sales of existing houses are not affected now, but few people buy the housing in the future house. The people are afraid of breaking the risks.

In the face of such a situation, Miao Leru believes that multiple departments should cooperate with coordination and formulate comprehensive and authoritative real estate documents, clarify the new system and new model in the future, and reliable expectations for housing companies and residents. Beginning in September last year, the regulatory authorities have continuously released policies, including supporting demand and improving sexual needs.

The in -depth adjustment of the real estate industry has lasted for more than a year. Miao Leru emphasized that the revelation that reality has brought us is that China's economic development is still inseparable from real estate, but the model in the past must not continue, so we cannot waste this time real estate is big. Change the bureau, take this opportunity to promote the transformation of the industry development model.

The market size will be converted to balanced development

Judging from the real estate investment growth data over the years, it still has important market support, and on the basis of demand, it is still very promising.

Miao Leru once again reiterated a prediction of a housing demand he had made.

At the end of 2019, the urban population was 8484.3 billion, and the per capita housing was 39.8 square meters. We have achieved a well -off. On this basis, the population is added in accordance with the cities and towns within 5 years. There are 400 million middle -income family groups in the household group. The level of housing is 39.8 square meters at the low line of developed countries, and the median line is 51.45 square meters. 15.92 billion square meters to 25.32 billion square meters; the average annual demand is similar to the current annual development scale of the industry.

Miao Leu pointed out that the above predictions have not considered improvement of sexual needs, new economic belts, urban agglomerations, urban communities, new population demand, and house deductions of 1 ~ 2 people's houses and new cities for demolition. Micro demand.

In view of the slow demand, Miao Leru believes that the scale of real estate in the future will be transformed from an annual innovation to a balanced development, and gradually entering the market with stocks.

"Strive to achieve the best results"

Regarding the real estate trend in the third and fourth quarters, Miao Leu pointed out that it is essentially to meet the needs of the people's good life and promote the economic and social development of the people.

From the current point of view, Miao Le Ru emphasized that the first problem is to deeply grasp and firmly implement important deployments. On July 28, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China made a new deployment on the current situation. It is mentioned that it is necessary to fully implement the requirements of "the epidemic should be defended, the economy must be stable, and the development must be safe", and strives to achieve the best results.

"The relationship between the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of the economic and social development is to stabilize the real estate market. Persist in the house for living, not the positioning for speculation. The demand for housing, compacting the responsibilities of local governments, and protecting the property and the people's livelihood. This is also the first time that the Politburo meeting has proposed the proposition. "Miao Leru said.

"The development of real estate has entered a new stage. The prominent feature is the imbalance and inadequate development. It is mainly manifested in 5 aspects. Market differentiation between cities and regions. The construction technology is backward, the promotion and application of digital technology, prefabricated buildings, etc. have just started, and under high turnover and high housing prices, corporate liabilities cross the third line and house buying family leverage, and the economic development depends on real estate to increase the market bubble. The intermediary service is irregular, and the construction service of the green and smart living area is far away. "Miao Leru said.

Miao Le Ru further pointed out that in such an imbalance and inadequate situation, the division of the real estate market and the differentiation of urban areas are the most fundamental problems.It is more conducive to implementing the deployment of local government responsibilities, maintaining diplomatic relations, and protecting the people's livelihood.Daily Economic News

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