It's down again!Some cities can break through the LPR-20BP lower limit of 5 years before the end of the year at the end of the year

21st Century Business Herald reporter Li Yue Beijing report

On September 8th, the State Council's special meeting mentioned that "continuing to introduce staged policy measures such as increasing consumption expansion" was officially launched.

On September 29, the Central Bank and the CBRC issued a notice to determine the differentiated housing credit policy in stages. Eligible urban governments can decide to maintain, lower or cancel the local new housing loan interest rate in the local area by the end of 2022. The lower limit.

"The introduction of this policy and measures is conducive to supporting the urban government's" policy of urban policies "to make good use of policy tool boxes to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. The interest rate level of house loan is conducive to reducing the interest expenses of residents and better supporting the demand for rigid housing. "The notice said.

It is worth noting that the regular meeting of the Central Bank Monetary Policy Commission on September 29 also proposed that "reduce personal consumer credit costs" and "use the policy to make good use of policy toolboxes to support rigid and improved housing needs." The analysis believes that the interest rate of subsequent personal housing loans is expected to have a downlink space. The current LPR of more than 5 years is 4.3%.

Some cities can break through the lower limit before the end of the year

The characteristics of my country's real estate market are obvious. The determination of personal housing loan interest rates and down payment ratios follows the principles of urban policies, and the pricing mechanism of three floors of the country, cities, and banks is adopted.

Taking the lower limit of interest rates as an example, the first set of mortgage interest rates at the national level must not be lower than the corresponding period of LPR. In accordance with the principles of urban policies, guide the provincial market interest rate pricing and self -discipline mechanism, and on the basis of the national policy limit, determine the lower limit of the loan interest rate in each city in the jurisdiction. This is the lower limit that the city must follow. The city directly adopts the nationwide limit, and there is no additional additional requirements; banks combine their own business conditions, customer risk status, and credit conditions to clarify the pricing rules of interest rates. Based on the lower limit of interest rate policies in each city Add a point value, which is a complete market -oriented business decision.

On September 20, the central bank authorized the National Bank of China Interbank Borrowing Center to show that the LPR of more than 5 years was 4.3%. Before the next release of LPR is valid.

In May of this year, the Central Bank and the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Adjusting Differential Housing Credit Policy Relevant Issues", and proposed that the first set of housing commercial personal housing loan interest rates were adjusted to be adjusted to the residents of residents who purchased ordinary housing. The corresponding period of the loan market quotation is reduced by 20 basis points, and the lower limit of the two sets of housing commercial personal housing loan interest rate policy is implemented in accordance with the current regulations.

After the release of this document, this means that the interest rate of personal housing loans can exceed 4.1%of the lower limit requirements.

However, the above documents also set the city and time range of personal housing loan interest rates that can exceed 4.1%of the lower limit requirements: for cities that have continued to decline year-on-year and year-on-year, the sales price of new commercial housing in June-August of 2022, before the end of 2022, before the end of 2022, before the end of 2022, before the end of 2022, at the end of 2022, before the end of 2022, at the end of 2022, before the end of 2022, at the end of 2022, At the stage, the interest rate of the first house's commercial personal personal housing loan is limited; and it is limited to the end of 2022, that is, the 3 months of the fourth quarter of this year.

"This reduction is mainly for cities with weak real estate markets, which also shows that the real estate market is relatively weak in the third quarter of this year, especially July-August, and attracts high-level attention. In particular, buyers of such cities still think that the mortgage interest rate is too high. Therefore, continuing to reduce interest rates has become the popularity of the public. "Yan Yuejin said that the introduction of such policies will inevitably increase the autonomy of such policies. To reduce the cost of mortgage and boost market transaction.

LPR above 5 years still has a downlink space

The report released by Rong 360 Digital Science and Technology Research Institute showed that 42 cities monitored by 33 cities in August 2022 (data monitoring period from July 2022-August 18, 2022), 33 cities can be implemented in the country at the lowest. The lower limit of the mortgage interest rate, and the mainstream mortgage interest rate in 30 cities is the national lower limit.

After the decrease of LPR on August 22, as of August 24, at least 37 cities in 42 cities had already reduced the mortgage interest rate to 15bp. 4.9%).

It is worth noting that the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee in the third quarter of 2022 (98th) regular meeting proposed to promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises and personal consumer credit costs.

"Promoting the reduction of personal consumer credit costs, this statement has been mentioned on August 18, but it is the first time in the central bank's currency conference draft." It is a housing loan (as of the end of June, the consumer consumer loan was 55.5 trillion, of which the balance of personal housing loans was 3.89 trillion yuan). Other consumer loans may also be related to housing (such as renovation loans), so it is also promoted to reduce personal consumer credit costs. It is a real estate policy. Considering the current real estate sales supply and demand relationship and policy intention, it is expected that the interest rate of subsequent personal housing loans will still have a downlink space.

Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing said that the formation of this regular manuscript in real estate is significantly more than in the second quarter. In addition to reiterating "maintaining the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers and promoting the healthy development of the real estate market", the new "due to the city because of the city" The strategy uses a good policy tool box to support rigid and improved housing needs, promote the special borrowing of the "guarantee of the property" to accelerate the use of landing and use it to increase the efforts appropriately, and guide commercial banks to provide supporting financing support ". "Next, focusing on the" keeping traffic "as the focus, the support policy of the real estate supply side will significantly make significant efforts, and the decline of real estate development loans will ease, which will help improve market expectations. At the same time, in the fourth quarter, 5 years in the fourth quarter of 5 years The quotation of LPR above the period may also be reduced to a certain extent, which in turn drives the property market as soon as the end of the year around the end of the year. This will be a major focus of steady growth in the fourth quarter and controlling risks. "Wang Qing believes.

The fourth quarter work promotion conference held by the stabilization of the economic market recently also proposed that due to the use of tools in policy boxes in the city, support rigid and improved housing needs, and implement a good policy policy. All localities should increase the implementation and supporting efforts of the policy to ensure the quality of the project construction project. Economic provinces should play a role in stabilizing the economy.

(Coordinating: Ma Chunyuan)

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