The transactions of the property market in multiple cities are warming, and the real estate hidden positive signal

27.09.2022

Number of this text: 2309, the reading time is about 4 minutes older

Guide: The turn of the property market sales at the beginning.

Author | First Finance Sun Mengfan

Affected by the continuous easing of policies and the gradual implementation of the "guarantee building", there were signs of warmth in the property market.

Data from a number of institutions show that since mid -September, the transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen in first -tier cities have grown in the same month. Among the second -tier cities, Qingdao, Suzhou, Nanning, Jinan, Wenzhou, and Dongguan have a warming trend; Line cities have been differentiated, but there are still urban markets such as Yangzhou, Jinhua, Lianyungang and other property markets.

Some of the industry believes that under the increase of policies, the data of new housing and second -hand housing markets has a momentum of rebounding. During the upcoming National Day holiday, the intensity of "price replacement" of housing companies may continue to increase, and the market temperature is expected to be improved in a new round.

Single -week sales increased by 161.7% month -on -month

In order to promote the steady development of the real estate industry, the property market has been introduced in many places this year.

In mid -September, Qingdao Housing and Urban -Rural Development Officers We issued a text that continued to implement a purchase restriction policy in the city's southern and northern districts (except the former Sifang area); Three -child families can purchase one set, and residents of foreign residents live in half a year to purchase one set; second -hand housing no longer restricted purchases.

Affected by this, the Qingdao property market recently showed signs of heating up, and the transaction data of new houses has a trend. Zhuo Yi data shows that from September 19th to September 25th, there were a total of 1860 new houses in Qingdao transactions, a month -on -month increase of 81.46%. Among them, Chengyang District sold 464 units in a single week, ranking first in the regional transaction list.

China Post Securities data also shows that the current growth of the transaction area of ​​Qingdao's new house has rebounded at the bottom. Last week, the new house transaction was 201,000 square meters, an increase of 12.4%year -on -year, an increase of 81.4%month -on -month, and the cumulative decrease of 11.9%year -on -year from the beginning of the year.

According to a local real estate intermediary, Qingdao's new houses have been relatively high in recent years. In the second half of the year, developers have raised their performance, which has stimulated market transactions. Zhuo Yi data shows that the average transaction price of Qingdao's new houses last week was about 19079 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 12.05%month -on -month. Price the transaction of real estate companies promoted the transaction, which helped the sales data.

The above -mentioned intermediary also stated that the policy is currently stimulating, the interest rate is reduced, the interest rate of the first home loan is 4.1%, and the cost of buyers buying a house has also been reduced. Many people buy a house to live and invest less. In addition, the provident fund policy has also been changed, and it can be used for six consecutive months. The first house of both husband and wife can loan up to 800,000.

Suzhou, which has frequently introduced the policy of stabilizing the property market, has also been remarkable in the recent performance of the property market.

In mid -September, the news of loosening in Suzhou said that the industrial park and high -tech zone restriction policy were relaxed. Non -local household buyers could buy the first house directly without social security. However, by the 16th, the purchase restriction policy will be resumed. Non -Suzhou resident families buy a house in the six districts of Suzhou, and they still need to provide social security or taxes for 6 consecutive months within 3 years.

An intermediary said that the Suzhou purchase restriction policy has been released for a day, but it also attracted the attention of buyers to a certain extent. According to the data of China Post Securities, the recent growth rate of the transaction area of ​​Suzhou's new houses has gone out of the bottom. The transaction was 295,000 square meters from September 17th to 23rd, an increase of 170.4%year -on -year, and a month -on -month increase of 161.7%.

From the perspective of the above intermediary, the transaction is a bit exaggerated, but the overall market is really good. Under the circumstances of loose policy, reduced interest rates, and stabilizing house prices, it is just needed to usher in the opportunity. "Although many customers are watching, the interest rate reduction has stimulated the market to a certain extent. Last week, several real estate stake numbers in the park also shocked."

According to the Kerry Research Daily, in August this year, the supply area of ​​Suzhou commercial housing was 854,200 square meters, an increase of 82.08%month -on -month, a decrease of 51.6%year -on -year; the transaction area was 1.2151 million square meters, an increase of 1.02%month -on -month, a decrease of 6.46%year -on -year. Now entering the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the Suzhou property market is expected to get out of the bottom to stabilize the rise.

The property market is brewing to the bottom of the rebound

This year, there are more than 25 provinces in the country to regulate the property market more than 700 times.

The methods of "policy in the city" in various places also have different methods, such as Tianjin, Jinan and other cities to relax purchase restrictions, Chongqing, Hangzhou and other cities to adjust the provident fund policy, Hangzhou, Changchun and other places have introduced house purchase subsidy policies. Wuhan, Guiyang and other places optimize the pre -sale system , Wuxi, Hefei and other places have launched second -hand houses to "take the transfer" model ...

Affected by the "loose tide" of policies, the property market in many places has recovered significantly.

Recently, the rebound of new house transactions is particularly obvious. According to the data of China Post Securities, the transaction area of ​​the new house in 49 cities last week was growth rates from 46.3%last week to a slight drop of only 0.4%. The transactions in first -tier cities rebounded the most obvious. Last week's transactions were 1.02 million square meters, an increase of 50.1%year -on -year.

Among them, Beijing's new house transactions last week were 237,000 square meters, a year -on -year increase of 109.7%, an increase of 18.4%month -on -month, and a cumulative decrease of 30.1%year -on -year since the beginning of the year. During the same period, Shanghai's new houses were sold for 520,000 square meters, an increase of 84.7%year -on -year, an increase of 92.3%month -on -month, and a cumulative decrease of 23.2%year -on -year since the beginning of the year.

According to a real estate intermediary in Beijing, the market transaction volume has increased a lot, and the second -hand houses in the new house have performed well, mainly because of the decline in interest rates, many new house projects, and large choice space for buyers. In addition, the price of second -hand housing is stable, and some customers who need just need to enter the house to buy a house, and the owner will also replace the house after selling the house. "From the current market situation, there should be a small peak during the National Day holiday." Among the second -tier cities, Qingdao, Suzhou, Nanning, Jinan, Wenzhou, Dongguan's transaction area has increased significantly year -on -year. Third and fourth -tier cities are differentiated. Last week, cities with the month -on -month and year -on -year growth of Yangzhou, Jinhua, Lianyungang, Jiangmen, Putian, Zhoushan, Dongying, Chizhou, Yunfu, etc.

The property market is now showing signs of the bottom warming, which is inseparable from the recent release of positive signals. In the past two months, from the central government to the local government, they have been vigorously "guaranteeing the building". A series of stable confidence policies have been sacrificed. On September 23, the CBRC even said on the issue of real estate. Turn.

In terms of "insurance delivery", the first special borrowing of the "Insurance Building" paid to Shenyang in Shenyang has been in place. Zhengzhou will fully implement the "handling of a certificate" by the insurance and delivery project. The local governments and policy financial institutions have passed Different methods to safeguard the rights and interests of the buyers, the market expects to be stable, and the confidence of residents and corporate confidence has also been boosted.

BOC Securities stated that under the integration of various policies, the current market data of the new and second -hand housing markets have seen the momentum of the bottom of the rebound, and the sales inflection point has emerged. It is expected that the government's support for reasonable house purchase and corporate financing needs will accelerate.

There are also industry views that the core demand of the current policy is to promote market stability, rather than stimulating the irrational market recovery.

Wu Ge, chief economist of Changjiang Securities, said that since October last year, the mortgage interest rate has been down 159bp, and the loan cycle has also been shortened from 73 days to 25 days. It is expected to be affected by the epidemic factors and the cash flow of housing enterprises. The decline in the sales of commercial housing may continue to narrow in the fourth quarter, but the growth rate will still need to be in the first quarter of next year.

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