The property market is "loose", why does Qingdao and other places reverse?

The market needs a smooth transition

Since mid -September, many cities have successively introduced the "loosening" policy of the property market.

In this round of "loosening", hot cities such as Ningbo, Qingdao, Suzhou, Jinan, and Zhengzhou have issued corresponding policies, and the property market restriction policy has been canceled in a comprehensive (or part of).

For example, in the "Our City Dynamic Real Estate Policy" released by Qingdao on September 15th, second -hand housing no longer restricted purchase. Suzhou reported on September 14 that the city canceled the first house restriction on the first house, and the 6 district trading center under its jurisdiction had begun to implement the policy.

At that time, many voices in the industry shouted, "the tide of completely canceling the purchase restrictions began."

But soon the above two places have withdrawn the policy of "loosening" the property market one after another, which has attracted widespread attention.

"Lositive" is far better than in the past

Different from the past, the "loosening" of the property market has significant characteristics.

Li Yujia, director of the Guangdong Real Estate Policy Research Center, told China News Weekly that recently, cities that have released the purchase restriction policy are regional hot cities, and they are no longer the third and fourth -tier cities in the past.

"This round of liberalization of purchase restrictions is mainly because the State Council's executive meeting in August clearly stated that it can‘ one city, one strategy ’in various places, and implement a flexible real estate regulatory policy.” Li Yujia said.

For these hot cities, the policy of liberalizing purchase restrictions in this round is far better than in the past.

It is understood that Ningbo has fully liberalized purchase restrictions as early as September 8th, and household purchases no longer limit the number of packages. Although Ningbo's "loosening" has not been publicly issued, according to the specific implementation of the local real estate trading market, Ningbo has fully released the property market restriction in terms of purchase review.

On September 13, Zhengzhou issued the "Implementation Opinions of the Zhengzhou Public Security Bureau on Further Deepening the Reform of the Household Registration System" to further relax the conditions for settlement in the central urban area: those who have legal and stable employment or legal stability (including rent) The limits of years and living lives, my spouses, children and parents who live together can apply for resident accounts for urban residents.

This means that Zhengzhou has become the first major city in China to truly settle in the "zero threshold".

Earlier, the purchase conditions for the Zhengzhou property market included 2 sets of household registrations, which can be purchased for two sets of household registration, and one set of single can be purchased. Foreign household registration residents who want to buy a house need to pay 24 months of social security or taxes in Zhengzhou. Once the restrictions on settlement are canceled, it is equivalent to directly reducing the threshold of buying a house in Zhengzhou.

The "loosening" purchase restriction policy on September 14th in Suzhou proposed that non -Suzhou households purchased the first house in the sixth district of Suzhou (Wuzhong District, Wujiang District, Gusu District, Xiangcheng District, High -tech Zone, and Industrial Park). Personal income tax certificate, but one set is limited to purchase. Families in Suzhou can buy up to 3 sets.

On September 15, Jinan also released news that the purchase restricted area was adjusted from the previous 8 districts to the two districts of Lixia District and the city in the city.

It is worth noting that Qingdao and Suzhou quickly withdrew the "loosening" policy to reproduce the phenomenon of "one -day tour" in the property market policy.

Qingdao city landscape. Figure/Figure insect creativity

One day after the release of the new policy of the property market, Qingdao deleted the word "second -hand housing no longer restricted purchase"; Suzhou had a policy reversal after two days of restrictions on the purchase restrictions, and announced that it would continue to implement the purchase restriction.

After the adjustment, the policy of Suzhou is: Except for the opening restrictions of Wujiang District, the other five districts, namely Wuzhong, Gusu, Xiangcheng, High -tech, and Industrial Park have restored the previous purchase restriction policy.

The staff of the Housing Management Bureau of Suzhou Xiangcheng District said that at present, foreigners still need 6 months of social security or individual tax certificates.

"Loose" and emergency withdrawal behind

Why are these cities "loosening" the property market restricted? Why is it urgently withdrawn after issuing relevant policies?

Yan Yuejin, the research director of the Think Tank Center of the E -House Research Institute, believes that during the process of relaxation of such adjustments, there are market chaos such as real estate speculation.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 16 showed that in August, among 70 large and medium cities across the country, the number of cities in sales prices in commodity housing increased.

Specifically, in August, there were 49 cities that decreased year-on-year in 70 large and medium-sized cities; 61 cities with sales prices decreased year-on-year in second-hand residential houses; Essence

The sluggish real estate market is directly transmitted to the soil auction market. From January to August of this year, the area of ​​land purchase area nationwide was -49.7%year-on-year, and the soil auction market directly affected the fiscal revenue of local governments in various cities.

The above -mentioned cities that liberalized purchase restrictions are no exception. Taking Qingdao as an example, the third batch of concentrated supply in 2022 was officially ended on September 16. In this centralized land supply auction, about 85%of the plots were sold at a reserve price, and the overall premium rate of the plot was as low as 1.14%, which was a decrease from the first round and second round of concentrated land supply.

Judging from the real estate companies, of the 30 plots of the transactions, the 22 plots have the participation of platform companies behind it.

Platform companies generally refer to economic entities that are established by local governments and their departments, institutions, etc., and the establishment of financial investment projects through financial allocation or injection of land, equity and other assets.

For example, Qingdao City Investment Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. won a plot on the second branch of Loushan, Licang District, Qingdao at a reserve price of 690 million yuan. The actual control of Qingdao City Investment Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. is 100%controlled by the Qingdao State -owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.

Earlier, No. 1 Nanjing Road, Nanjing Road, South District, Popular Land City, Qingdao City, also sold at a reserve price. This company is a wholly -owned subsidiary of Qingdao Hainuo Investment Development Co., Ltd., and Qingdao Hainuo Investment Development Co., Ltd. is controlled by 100%of the Treasury Bureau of Qingdao City. From the perspective of many industry insiders, the land that local urban investment companies take over can actually play a role in pocket.

According to statistics from China Real Estate Information Group (CRIC), the overall operating rate of concentrated land supply projects from 2021 to 2022 was 33%, while the platform company's land acquisition operating rate was only 16%.

"Now the market is too bad. Many local platform companies dare not start the ground, and they are supporting it hard." Some people in the industry told China News Weekly.

The above -mentioned industry people also revealed that the turnover rate is very important for the real estate industry. If the land is not started for too long, the funds cannot be returned in time. In the next step, no matter whether it is a platform company or a local finance, it will form greater pressure.

Under the downward trend of the market, the fulfillment of the entire property market has also been highly hoped for many cities. Some analysts pointed out that many cities have tried to relieve the downward pressure on the property market by liberalizing purchase restrictions. On the other hand, they are worried that the comprehensive "loosening" of relevant policies will cause speculation to recover.

"In the process of relaxation of various policies, some new real estate speculation may be formed, resulting in new pressure on the regulation of the property market." Yan Yuejin said.

In fact, after liberalizing the purchase restriction, buyers in many cities are "fist and palms." On the second day of Suzhou's release of news restrictions on the purchase restriction policy, local real estate sales told China News Weekly. On the same day, many telephone consultations from Jiangsu Province and Shanghai home buyers were received.

On August 5th, the Langfang Municipal Government announced that it has released the restrictions on the purchase of the property market and canceled the restrictions on house purchase and social security (individual tax). Data show that the transaction volume of local new houses has since rebounded significantly, especially during the Mid -Autumn Festival holidays, many Yanjiao agents have reported that many Beijing -watching tenants have come.

"No suburbs in the urban area"

However, Li Yujia believes that the overall market transaction volume is still sluggish, and the reason is not completely caused by the purchase restriction policy. In his opinion, the most fundamental problem is that the risk impact on the supply side and the expectations of the demand side. The reason behind is the slowdown in income caused by the overlapping economy, and potential buyers are not optimistic about future income and work prospects.

In recent years, the policies of various cities have tried to find a balance point between "housing and not frying" and boosting the property market.

So, how can we not only strengthen the basic positioning of "housing do not fry", and to a certain extent boost the property market?

China News Weekly has noticed that many cities have chosen the strategy of regional release restrictions.

For example, in Jinan, in addition to the implementation of restrictions on the implementation of Lixia District and the city's central areas, other areas or seconds outside the second ring are no longer restricted. Qingdao is aimed at non -purchasing areas, and you can purchase 3 or more real estate in local household registration and foreign household registration.

Li Yujia believes that the current downward situation of the main urban market in the main urban area of ​​hot cities is essentially staged, because the demand in the main urban area is relatively concentrated, and the supply of new houses is relatively small. Heating is only a matter of time. The role of isolation.

"The core areas of hot cities are fully liberalized, and how many sets of buying are not limited, it is likely to cause large fluctuations in house prices in a short time, and run counter to the principle of 'houses do not speculate.' Optimistic, such areas can be fully let go. "Li Yujia said.

Yan Yuejin also believes that a significant feature of recently relaxing purchase restrictions is "no suburbs in urban areas."

Li Yujia said that no matter how the policy is adjusted, "housing does not fry" and does not use real estate as a means of stimulating the economy, it has always been a state's established policy and the principle of regulation in various places.

However, how to define a stable market requires a reasonable reference department. Many people in the industry believe that the current property market cannot be compared with the historical high data.

"In the past five or six years, the sales volume of the property market has been hovering at the highest level in history. This year's sales volume has declined compared to last year and the previous year, but compared to 2019, 2018, and even in 2016, it is still at a historical high level. For many cities, it is still the third or fourth in history. "Li Yujia said.

Yan Yuejin said that the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy in the future will emphasize a gradual approach, rather than relaxing to the end.

Author: Zhao Yue ([email protected])

Edit: Sun Xiaobo

Operation editor: Wang Lin

- END -