Ten Questions and Ten Answers 丨 How to do it steadily: Real estate is still promising in the future

Zhejiang News Client reporter Fang Zhenzi

As a pillar industry, the scale of real estate is large, long, and widely involved, and it has obvious role in driving economic growth and stable macroeconomic basic disks.

Right now, the traditional "Golden Nine Silver Ten" peak season has arrived. How do you look at the current situation facing the real estate industry? How can real estate companies prevent risks and steadily improve quality? The reporter interviewed Zhang Yadong, chairman of Greentown Chinese Board.

Reporter: From January to August this year, national residential sales decreased by 30.3%year -on -year. How to look at the situation facing the real estate industry now?

Zhang Yadong: At present, the overall situation of the real estate market is still very severe. Although it has relaxed at the policy level and some signs of improvement, the overall recovery still needs to be observed.

In the short term, the real estate industry is in the "underwriting bottom" situation, the industry has differentiated, some companies clear, and the market confidence is difficult to recover. This situation may last until the end of the year. But in the long run, as the support industry of the national economy, real estate shoulder mission, so we believe that the real estate industry is still stable.

Our judgment is: the annual sales of real estate are expected to remain at a level of 12 trillion yuan.

Why is there such a judgment? At present, there are about 40 billion square meters of houses in China. If it is calculated by depreciation of 50 years, about 800 million square meters of houses will be updated each year. During the update process, the per capita housing area will also increase accordingly. If the assuming increases by 50%, a residential house of 1.2 billion square meters will be updated and developed each year. Based on the average sales price of the recent national commercial housing, the simulation of 10,000 yuan/square meter is calculated, which is 12 trillion yuan, which is still a large scale. Therefore, we are optimistic about the industry for a long time, and we will still be promising in the future.

Reporter: Real estate has shifted from the original "high leverage, high turnover, high yield" to "low growth, low profit, low fault tolerance". How should companies deal with it?

Zhang Yadong: As mentioned earlier, the fundamental fundamentals of the economic fundamentals are large and there are many uncertainty. In this context, how real estate companies judge their own play may be a problem that everyone is thinking.

We believe that the industry has entered a new stage of development. Enterprises need to make up for shortcomings and balanced coordination to go longer and healthier.

Combined with the fundamentals of the overall economy and the development of the industry, "focusing" is the keyword of Greentown's next step.

In the heavy assets, that is, Greentown China, emphasizes more focusing and deeply cultivating, focusing on core cities, core areas, and core projects. In the future, the city layout is "10+25". , Nanjing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Chengdu, Xi'an, the value of the goods accounts for 51%.

In terms of light assets, that is, Greentown Management Group pays more attention to expansion and brand output, layout on the country, covering three, fourth -tier or even five or six -tier cities.

For example, the Greentown Leju Group, which is a government -based construction affordable housing, will continue to sink and conduct in -depth expansion. Focusing on development and taking advantage of the trend is our determination of uncertainty.

In order to focus more, we have also adjusted in the organizational structure. In the past, the organizational structure of Greentown was divided into "Group -Regional -Project". The next step will become a two -level architecture of "Group -City Company". Improve quality.

We do not pursue the growth of scale and ranking. "Full quality, high quality" is the goal we are pursuing in management, and it is also the Greentown play this year and even the future. On the investment side, we have always emphasized that land acquisition must have the ability to "read the city, read land, and read customers", and gradually realize the accuracy of customer base positioning and product adaptation. On the marketing side, we have set up the "Passenger Research Committee" to make product innovation closer to the sensitive points of home buyers.

Looking back at the strategy we developed, it meets the industry's requirements. In the first half of the year, Greentown achieved net profit of 3.726 billion yuan, an increase of 36.7%year -on -year; no projects involved bad tails, and the first half of the year would be delivered 100%on time. The suspension incident has no direct impact on Greentown, which has prompted buyers to be more cautious to choose high -quality and reliable developers. We can only cross the industry cycle only by adhering to the "good house".

Reporter: What are your suggestions for promoting the steady quality and quality of the real estate industry?

Zhang Yadong: At present, housing companies generally face the problem of improving operating risks and increasing capital turnover pressure. The government must not only adhere to risk management and leverage management, but also promote the healthy development of the industry and a virtuous circle.

For risk prevention and control measures, we recommend establishing a risk early warning mechanism, such as strengthening the construction of the filing mechanism regularly in the financial information of housing enterprises, and resolutely combating the financing behavior of real estate enterprises with too long debt extension and malicious "borrowing new and old". The regulatory authorities must be closely close Pay attention to capital trends and potential financial risks that may trigger.

In addition, it is recommended that debt supervision according to asset classification, and supervision of loans and development loans for self -holding property and commercial assets. At the same time, accelerate the implementation of the Real Estate Investment Trust Fund (REITs) and revitalize the existing assets.

In terms of promoting the healthy development of the industry, we suggest that the competent authorities shall classify and control real estate companies. It can be rated according to the project development and delivery situation, market scale ranking, financial status, industry brand and word of mouth, and "graded policies" for different housing companies.

For the best -rated type A enterprises, investment efforts can be increased, and they can "add leverage" to promote the survival of the fittest, stabilize the industry investment, and promote the improvement of market concentration, so as to achieve supply -side reforms;On the basis of the previous debt leverage control, the policy tone of "stable leverage" can be clarified to promote the spontaneous solution of market entities to solve operating problems. For class C enterprises with poor ratingProgress and other special management and control, such as the formation of a special working group, carried out risk judgment and risk management in a targeted manner."Hierarchical policy" can not only stimulate the enthusiasm of the market entity, but also provide good external public opinion for the development of outstanding enterprises in the industry, and promote the stable and sustainable development of the industry.

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