From "living in houses" to "Housing Good House" real estate industry to high -quality development

Reporter Wang Lixin

Ten years is just a moment of historical long river, but for the Chinese real estate industry, it can be described as "moving forward." During this period, the industry has experienced explosive growth, and has also shifted from "comprehensive development" to "key development". Now it has entered a period of rational maturity and moves forward to high -quality development.

In the past ten years, the sales area of ​​commodity housing in the country totaled 13.234 billion square meters, which was 2.2 times that of the previous ten years. In the past ten years, the performance of high -quality heads in the capital market is remarkable. Taking Vanke's sales and market value in 2021 as an example, 627.78 billion yuan and 228.1 billion yuan were respectively. Essence In the past ten years, the housing security system has been continuously improved, with a cumulative investment of 14.8 trillion yuan, and the construction of various types of affordable housing and shantytown renovation and resettlement housing, and more than 140 million people in the dream.

In 1978, the "housing commercialization" model was proposed; after more than 40 years of adjustment, the two major housing supply systems further improved, and the scale of housing supply continued to increase. Mi; Today, the people's demand for housing has shifted from "whether there is" to "good", and the real estate industry is also standing at the critical point of the conversion of new and old development kinetic energy conversion. The development of the buyers' work together.

Persevere "do not fry the house" positioning

Promote high -quality "living and living"

The housing problem is related to the well -being of the people's livelihood.

From the first time of the 2016 Central Economic Work Conference, it has been proposed that "housing does not fry" so far. In the past 6 years, this position has never been shaken. In order to combat speculation in the real estate field, under the "policy of the city", the regulation and control policies are becoming more detailed and accurate, helping the "living dream" to become a reality.

"The census data in 2020 shows that there are 1.2 per capita housing of households in my country, and generally achieved the goal of living in a per capita house." After living ", people are more concerned about whether they can" live in a good house ", make the living standards that match the development of economic and social development, and enhance the happiness of living. Essence

Under this goal, in the past ten years, relevant departments have accelerated the improvement of the multi -subject supply, multi -channel guarantee, and renting and purchase of housing systems. On September 14, the Propaganda Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a series of theme press conferences of the "Ten Years of China". Jiang Wanrong, deputy minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development, said, "We emphasize the need to improve the two systems', one is the housing market system, and the other is housing Security System."

"After the diverse demand for new citizens is met, it will help stimulate the consumer market and the vitality of the real economy." Zhang Renyuan, Executive Dean of the Tongce Research Institute, told the Securities Daily reporter that with the continuous improvement of the two major housing supply systems, The development quality of the "production and city integration" and the life of "duty and residence" in large cities has been further optimized.

The relevant goals have been clear that during the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" period, 40 key cities will raise 6.5 million sets of (room) affordable rental housing, which can solve the difficulties of nearly 20 million new citizens and young people.

"At present, it is mainly through various types of affordable housing and increasing the supply of rental housing to solve the" job balance "problem of youth groups in large cities." Li Wenjie said that it is recommended that in the future, it can increase the supply of effective leases by further activating residential housing. On the one hand, encouragement can be encouraged to encourage Individual owners will lease idle housing; on the other hand, the owners are encouraged to hand over the housing to professional leasing institutions. In a new model of housing development, leasing is entering a certain development space.

From the first half to solve the "housing living", to the second half to meet the needs of new citizens and young people and the needs of high -quality housing, stand at the stall of demand transformation to promote the stable and healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry as the goal As one of the main body of the industry's development participation, real estate developers take the lead in embarking on the road of transformation.

Say goodbye to large -scale development stage

Entering the era of professional development

In addition to adjusting individual years, "volume and price rise" is a major feature of the Chinese property market for many years. In 2012, the national commercial housing sales area was 1.113 billion square meters, and the sales amount was 6.45 trillion yuan, which increased to 1.794 billion square meters and 1.82 trillion yuan in 2021, respectively. During this period, with the help of demographic dividends and financial dividends, developers advanced to capital market expansion and financing, and pursued fast turnover and large -scale.

"In the last ten years, real estate is in a period of high -speed growth. Although there are short -term fluctuations in the middle, it is generally a process of spiral rising. The real inflection point appears in 2020." At the performance briefing, the chairman of the board of directors of the Midea Real Estate, the executive director and the executive director President Hao Hengle told a reporter from the Securities Daily.

New Town Holdings Management told the Securities Daily that major housing companies no longer blindly pursue high leverage, high turnover, and expanding standards, and seek high -quality development on the basis of business model reconstruction and financial stability.

"As the housing demand structure changes, the development model of the industry will inevitably be transformed." Li Wenjie said that the current demand change is being led to supply change, and the industry and market entities must achieve sustainable development.

"This year is the year of the new and old model of the real estate industry. Many private real estate companies have slowed down and fully realized that they need to return to rationality." At the performance briefing, the chairman of Xuhui Holdings, Lin Zhong, told the Securities Daily reporter After this round of adjustment, China's real estate industry will shift from the new model of high debt, high leverage, and high growth models in the past to new models of low -liabilities, low -risk, and light assets. Obviously, real estate developers have realized that the industry will bid farewell to the development stage of "large -scale heroes", and it is time to slow down and precipitate. At the scene of the performance briefing in recent years, "with quality growth" is one of the keywords for high -frequency output for housing companies.

At present, the real estate market has entered the stage of parallel development of the stock and incremental increase. The important topic in front of the developer is to survive in the competitive pattern of survival of the fittest, and it is necessary to convert its own characters into developers. The transformation is exerted in real estate -related diversified segment business tracks to promote the industry into the stage of professional development.

"In the past, each year we invested 10%of the sales repayment to hold the three major main channel business of the holding property, business, long -term rental apartments, and property management. An annualized growth of 30%to 40%of operating income each year. "Longhu Group's management told the Securities Daily reporter that the growth of operating property income will play a role in a stabilizer in the crossing cycle.

For the future development strategy, "Midea's home property must maintain its own determination, make products and services in the basic disk, and at the same time, in terms of diversification, the construction technology, business services, and intelligent cultivation that are already existing and rolled out can be well cultivated. , Form the future supplement to the main business. "Hao Hengle said.

Looking back at these decade, the subdivisions of property management, agency construction, and residential services are split -split from the real estate development field. All related companies have logged in to A shares, H shares or US stocks, China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Management, Shell Finding Finding Find Representative companies such as houses such as houses have shown fist in the capital market.

As Li Wenjie shown, in order to achieve a higher quality and sustainable development model, the real estate industry must go through the mainly developed from physical space builders, and gradually develop into operators and service providers that rely on physical space for institutions and individual customers to continue to provide services. Mainly, this is also the only way to explore the transformation from the old model to the new model.

Capital surround real estate service layout

Help explore a new model of real estate development

By the end of 2021, the urbanization rate of the permanent population in my country was 64.72%. At present, my country's real estate market has entered a preliminary stage of "survival and survival". The business around the stock market ushered in development opportunities.

"According to the law of real estate development, it can be roughly divided into three stages. At different stages, relevant departments and market players need to use different financial instruments to drive the healthy development of the industry." Hu Feng, director of the ministry, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the first stage is the period of rapid construction. Raising the per capita residential area is the main task. Financial institutions "add leverage" around the residential format; Increasing status, the market enters the "memory and survive" stage, and capital began to pursue assets that rely on refined operations to improve the value of real estate; the third stage is the market entering the development of real estate professionalization, and real estate asset securitization market matures. Investment targets.

The current Chinese real estate market is entering the second and third stages in parallel. Putting about 180 listed real estate companies with development -based business, in view of the market -oriented growth of professional segmentation in the industry, in the past ten years, the capital market has produced the first share of China's community service operation and housing service platform No. 1 in the capital market. One shares, the first stock on behalf of Jianjian ...

The long track business worth talking about is the property management industry. From silences to growing to the market value of the sector once exceeded 800 billion yuan, the property management industry only spent more than 8 years. In the past 8 years, about 60 property management companies have successively landed in H shares, and its price -earnings ratio PE once returned from 80 times the "high heat" of individual enterprises to less than 30 times the "calmness". To this day, although the average price -earnings ratio of the property management industry has dropped to 15 times by the real estate industry's entry adjustment period, there is no doubt that the independent marketization operation of the property management company has taken a key step, and the annual annual income scale has broken through the industry's annual income scale. The 100 billion yuan mark.

In addition to the property management industry, multiple participating entities in the real estate market are also exploring a new model of real estate development. Banks and institutional investors are gradually increasing the proportion of investment in non -active formats other than residential development.

According to the monitoring data of Dade Liangxing, from 2019 to the present, real estate investment such as office buildings, business parks, industrial logistics, industrial real estate, and long -term rental apartments has become the type of assets favored by investors. 2%in 2019 increased to 26%in the first half of this year; long -term rental apartments rose from 2%to 7%.

Regarding the financial support of the long -term rental housing market, on February 27 this year, the CBRC and the Ministry of Housing and Construction jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Development of Bank Insurance Agency Supporting the Protective Rental Housing Market Development" pointed out that it further strengthened the finance of affordable rental housing construction and operation. support. On August 31, the first batch of three guarantee rental housing (hereinafter referred to as "rental house") REITs on the first batch of three guarantee housing (hereinafter referred to as "leased housing") REITs were simultaneously listed and traded, which also means that the Chinese REITs market Building an important step. "The first batch of rental housing REITs opened a brand new door to achieve the sustainable development of the" investment, fusion, management, and retreat of investment in the infrastructure assets of rental housing in China. It has a milestone significance in practice. "Hu Feng said that since 2014, various types of real estate asset securitization products have issued more than 400 orders and involved about 830 billion yuan. Higher and higher.

Regarding the future development of the rent -protection housing public offering REITs, Hu Feng put forward four suggestions: First, encourage the issuance of non -state -owned transfer housing public offering REITs to clearly exit; second, promote the establishment of rent pricing and increase levels of rental housing rents in various places as soon as possible. Relevant regulations; Third, incorporate the uninterrupted supporting business with rent -protection housing into the field of public offering REITs to increase the yield of asset packages; fourth, the information disclosure mechanism for rent -preserving housing projects and municipal rental management service platforms are established nationwide.

Various signs show that during the change of the new and old model of real estate, many respondents reached consensus, and the demand for the stock market and urban renewal will bring multiple market size of the market with a number of trillion yuan; In the market, the sales scale of commercial housing will maintain a level of more than 10 trillion yuan in the next years.

"In the context of the high -quality development of China's economy, the demand for residents 'housing will not stagnate and shrink." Li Wenjie said that in the era of improvement of residence, consumers' core demand for housing is more concerned about the changes and growth of housing physical space, and they pay more attention to the changes in the physical space of the housing, and pay more attention to their attention. Living quality and service. Forging diversity and differentiated products and services can better meet the improvement of the improvement of different groups. It is a certain path to cross the future cycle.

So, how will the real estate industry develop in the next ten years? Hao Hengle told the reporter of "Securities Daily", "In the next ten years, we will still be optimistic about the real estate industry for a long time. If the demand exists, this industry will have the future. It is just that the demand structure has changed and pays more attention to quality and service. We believe that after a short period of time After sexual pressure, the future supply and demand will be more stable and healthy, and the participants who can survive in the industry will be more rational. "(Securities Daily)

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