The new low housing loan interest rate in the United States has been breaking 6% since 2008 for 2 years.

Our reporter Hou Jiening Leisco reporter Han Yu

According to Xinhua Finance, on the evening of September 20, Beijing time, the US Department of Commerce announced the private new housing permit data in August. In August, the US newly -built housing permits recorded 15.17 million units, a new low since June 2020, and lower than the market's previous expectations of 1.621 million units, a year -on -year and month -on -month decrease of 14.4%and 10%, respectively.

Analysts of the Department of Eastern Jincheng Research and Development said in an interview with the Securities Daily that since the second half of the year, as the Fed has accelerated the pace of tightening the rhythm and continuously raised interest rates, the rise in US housing loan interest rates has caused a significant impact on its real estate market Essence Previously, a large number of fiscal aid during the new crown pneumonia's epidemic and a round of house prices soaring in supply and demand and unbalanced supply and demand, and the upsurge of real estate investment for nearly two years, under the impact of the Fed's "fast forward and fast" monetary policy, it was rapidly falling, entering Downward channel.

In addition to the leading indicators of new housing permits lower than expected, a number of data recently showed that the prospects of the US real estate market are not optimistic.

According to the latest data of Wind, as of the week of September 15, the fixed interest rate of the 30 -year mortgage loan in the United States has exceeded 6%of the mark and recorded 6.02%. Essence After the reporter sorted out the data, compared with the interest rate level of 4.99%in early August, the fixed interest rate of the 30 -year mortgage loan in the United States has surged more than 20%in one and a half months. Almost doubled.

With the rapid rise of mortgage interest rates, both ends of the supply and demand in the US real estate market have been significantly impacted.

On the supply side, on September 19, the real estate market index issued by the NAHB (National Housing Construction Merchants Association) recorded 46, and the confidence of the construction dealer measured by the index fell for 9 consecutive months in 2022. According to the NAHB report, the large rise in mortgage interest rates has led to the continuous weak demand for house purchase, and while facing the decline in house sales, builders also need to bear higher construction costs due to inflation. In September, the investigated builders have declined with the current housing sales, the expected sales of the next six months, and the number of potential buyers.

At the demand side, the US house sales and new house sales are also lower than market expectations in July. As of the latest data at the end of July, the number of new houses to be sold in the United States reached 464,000 units, and inventory has also risen to the highest level since 2008.

According to analysts from the East Golden Research and Development Department, the rapid cooling of the US real estate market is directly affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, and it is the direct result of the rapid tightening of financial conditions; It is expected to decline and continue to consume residents' savings and actual consumption capabilities, which increases the burden of house purchase and crack down on the demand for house purchase.

"In the future, the continuous downward trend of US real estate will be certain. This is mainly to consider that the continuous tightening of financial conditions will push high mortgage loan interest rate suppression demand. At the same time . "The analyst of the Department of Eastern Jincheng Research and Development predicted.

From the perspective of the industry, its economic growth and related consumption may be dragged down in the case of the U.S. real estate in the decline.

Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that due to the high proportion of the US real estate and its related consumption in the United States, the historical laws show that the changes in the US real estate cycle must be ahead of the economic cycle. Therefore, the "cooling" of the US real estate market may have a negative impact on the US economy and further increase the downward pressure on the economy.

According to the Research on Northeast Securities, historical data shows that the Fed ’s interest rate hike cycle is generally accompanied by the decline in the number of new houses and the negative GDP driving rate of residential investment. The current interest rate hike process has exceeded half, and the market's full expectations of interest rate hikes will continue. In this background, the motivation of residential investment will weaken. In the first and second quarters of 2022, US residential investment's pull rates on its GDP were 0.02%and -0.83%, respectively. It is expected to be affected by interest rate hikes, and residential investment stretching rates may be maintained at a low level.

(Edit Shangguan Monroe)

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