Will the Chinese property market recover from "Golden Nine Silver Ten" in August?

After a wave of rebounds in June, July and August, the real estate market in China's major cities was blocked, and it was adjusted for two consecutive months.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th, the core indicators such as housing prices, real estate investment, and commercial housing sales in China's large and medium -sized cities in August fell year -on -year. September and October are the traditional peak of the property market. What is the trend of the subsequent real estate market in China?

Multiple indicators of the property market are still downward channels

In August, house prices in large and medium -sized cities declined as a whole, and the scope of the decline was expanded. In the month, of the 70 cities, new houses and second -hand housing prices fell 50 and 56; the average decline in new houses and second -hand housing prices in 70 cities and second -hand housing also showed an enlarged trend.

However, housing prices in some first -tier and strong second -tier cities still rise, and the trend of differentiation in the property market still exists. Among the first -tier cities, the price of new houses in Guangzhou in August "turned down", and Shenzhen fell for the second consecutive month. However, in the same period, the new house price in Shanghai rose 0.6%month -on -month, rose to the first place in 70 cities, and the price of new houses in Beijing rose 0.4%month -on -month.

In addition, the Yangtze River Delta has strong toughness. In August, the prices of new houses in Nanjing, Hangzhou, Hefei, Ningbo, and Wuxi rose from the previous quarter and rose. The property market in Northeast China still faces certain pressure.

Except for housing prices, from January to August, the amount of investment in China's real estate development decreased by 7.4%year -on -year, and the decline expanded by 1 percentage point from the previous month. The cumulative decline in the sales area and sales of commercial houses narrowed, but still exceeded 20 %.

Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Economic Economic Comprehensive, also admitted that the same day, it still requires a process from sales to transmission to real estate investment and production. To promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, we must continue to work hard.

Pang Ye, chief economist and director of research department of the Zhongliang Filver Greater China, said that from the comprehensive point of view, the real estate industry's bottom -up recovery process is still disturbed, and the significant improvement of the sales, investment and financing side may be Need more patience.

Support policy plus order

At the end of August, the executive meeting of the State Council clearly proposed to allow local "one city, one policy" to flexibly use credit and other policies to reasonably support rigid and improved housing needs. This policy overlapped the monthly loan interest rate reference of more than 5 years of LPR (loan market quotation interest rate) to reduce 15 basis points again, releasing space for the optimized property market policies in various places.

The current mortgage interest rate is at a historical low. The average interest rate of the first home loan of 42 cities in Rong 360 has dropped to 4.39%.

Since September, the rhythm of policies in various localities has accelerated slightly. Chen Wenjing, director of market research director of the Index Division of the Medium Finger Research Institute, said that including Qingdao, Jinan, Fuzhou and other places, they also continued to optimize demand policies. Among them, Qingdao and Jinan's relaxation restrictions are conducive to repairing market confidence and improving the emotions of home buyers. It is worth noting that in the past two days, some cities have withdrawn from relaxation policies, which means that subsequent hotspot city policies may be more cautious.

The industry believes that at present, the concerns of buyers' concerns about the delivery of new houses are still an important factor in lowering the expectations of the property market. In terms of "insurance delivery", Jiang Wanrong, deputy minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development, recently revealed that last month, the relevant departments have issued special measures to support cities in need for cities that need to be sold for overdue difficulty in cities in need. The construction of residential project construction is currently under intense and orderly work.

Wang Xiaoyu, chief analyst of Zhuge Finding Data Research Center, said that in August, in August, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing rose slightly, which conveyed some positive signals to the industry. Arrived.

Can "Jin Jiu" come as scheduled?

Chen Wenjing said that from the perspective of market performance, according to the monitoring of the middle finger, in the first two weeks of September, the area of ​​commercial residential residential transactions in key cities was still large, and the traditional "Golden Nine" was less than expected.

Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of the Kerry Research Center, said that the traditional "Kim Nine" has been absent for two consecutive years, and this year's property market "Golden Jiu" may also be difficult to repeat the past "prosperity". He said that on the one hand, the inflection point of the industry's large cycle is coming. With the development trend of the market, it is difficult to rise in the peak season of traditional sales. On the other hand, the effect of stabilizing the real estate policy is still yet to be released, the market confidence is unstable, and it is difficult to reverse market downward expectations in the short term. In the future, the performance of the property market in domestic hot cities will continue to differentiate.

Ding Zuyu, CEO of Yiju Enterprise Group, believes that the future real estate market may show a "L -shaped" trend. At present, the "one vertical" in "L" has gone. After building the bottom in the third quarter of this year, there will still be a long -term building process. (Finish)

Source: China News Network

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