Exclusive purchase order

After the reporter of Economic Observation Network, Chen Yueqin Ding Wenting's autumn typhoon "Plum Blossom" landed in Zhoushan, Zhejiang, and went north along the coastline, bringing strong wind and heavy rain to cities such as Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Shandong Peninsula. A eastern city official has been inspecting flood prevention and prevention work for many days, and does not forget to pay close attention in the gap -whether the property market restrictions on the city market have gone through the "one -day tour" and whether it can support the typhoon at the moment. longer?

The pace of the eastern coastal cities is consistent with "inconsistent". On September 8th, the city of Ningbo liberated the purchase limit of purchase restrictions. One week later, Suzhou's flag followed up and expanded from a little bit to the whole region to let go. By September 15, Qingdao and Jinan officially announced the relaxation restrictions on the same day. On September 16, Tianjin also greatly relaxed the restrictions on house purchase restrictions on new citizens in the city, while supporting the improved housing needs of household registration residents in the city.

When to loosen and let it go, to which extent, the city government secretly corner. Between the cities, it is a "brother" who compares shoulders and wait and see each other to see the market reaction after the first shot of the same level; to some extent, the two parties are competitive relationships: after unlimited house tickets, the market purchasing power is limited. Being able to grab the opportunity, maybe the next batch of land selling can be seen, and the sales "tail" in the fourth quarter of Jin Jiuyin Ten and the fourth quarter.

Unexpectedly, the typhoon has not passed, and Suzhou and Qingdao have tested the "red line" that restricted purchase and adjustment: September 16, Suzhou announced the restoration of the previous house purchase policy. Tax and denied that the policy had been loosened; Qingdao deleted 8 words "second -hand housing no longer restricted purchase" in the public account tweets on September 15, which fully reflected the "dynamic improvement of real estate policy".

Recently, the rumors of "except for first -tier cities, fully liberalizing purchase restrictions" are very arrogant, and the purchase restriction order. This period is the phased administrative method that suppressed housing speculation to control house prices, which has dynamically affected the Chinese property market for nearly 12 years. With the evolution of the market, the purchase restriction has gradually become the basic means from the most lethal regulatory weapon, together with the gradual upgrading of loans, sales, signing, departure, price limit, and business restrictions that are gradually upgraded in various places to regulate market supply and demand.

Until this round of real estate downside, the market demand is sluggish. From January to August, the national real estate development investment decreased by 7.4%. Whether the purchase restriction order continues to be pushed to the stage again.

Loose

According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of the year, there have been more than 37 cities or regions that have relaxed goods housing. There are four main categories of purchase restriction adjustment measures: one is to increase the number of purchase sets in the number of children's families, vote or adjust the standards; the other is to reduce the purchase restriction area; the third is to reduce the purchase requirements such as social security periods; and the fourth is to directly or indirectly cancel the restricted purchase restriction.

After August, Nanjing, Wuhan, and Hefei have allowed foreigners to purchase houses to supplement social security, which basically canceled the purchase restrictions; Nanjing and Dalian were purchased from second -hand housing for second -hand housing; Langfang, Tangshan, Yinchuan, Qinhuangdao, Jiujiang and other places directly abolished directly The previous regulation and control policies are not issued without new documents.

By September, the "Fire of Stars", which was restricted, gradually spread to new first -tier and strong second -tier cities.

Ningbo launched the first shot of the overall delegated purchase restriction. It is not limited to the household registration, the number of unlimited sets, and the official announcement. It will be implemented directly on September 8th. People still need to restrict purchase certificates but no longer review, which is equivalent to unlimited purchase. On the afternoon of the same day, Ningbo Real Estate Market Management Center responded that the notification was not received and the purchase restriction policy was still implemented, but the results of the purchase restriction application shall prevail in various districts. The gunshot was not sounded, and there was enough to retreat.

Suzhou, which is not far away from Ningbo, also carefully released the news of liberalizing purchase restrictions. A local agent in Suzhou told the Economic Observer that on September 14th, it was reported that the whole region was released on the eve of the purchase restriction. In addition to the purchase restrictions on the high -tech zone, in addition, the local people who buy their first house in Suzhou no longer need social security certificates.

However, on September 15, the Suzhou Housing and Construction Bureau responded that foreigners only restricted a house for a house to deny the statement that comprehensively canceled the purchase restriction.

From the perspective of the country, the tide of loosening since September began with strong economic cities in the eastern coastal provinces, and gradually expanded to the provincial capital cities.

Just do it or not

In fact, as the provincial capital of Jiangsu Province, the news of completely canceling the purchase restriction in Nanjing in early August. Relevant persons from the Nanjing Housing Security and Real Estate Bureau responded to the surging news on August 2: This is unrealistic news, and the bureau did not receive it. There was no relevant documents issued, and Nanjing did not fully let go of purchase restrictions.

The intermediary gave a version verified version: 6 months of social security can be paid at one time, about 6,000 yuan.

Unknown cancellation restrictions are the choice of many cities. It is emphasized that the "purchase restriction certificate" is still needed or can be bought first and then paid the social security tips to retain the room for interpretation and modification.

During the year, Nanjing frequently moved, and 3 "one -day tour" appeared in 5 times of relaxation. At the end of April, the annual limit of foreigners' house purchase social security dropped from 2 years to 6 months; on May 20, the real estate association's release of second -hand housing purchase restrictions will be deleted in less than 1 day; The next day the relevant departments responded to false and still needed social security for 6 months, but they could be paid; on August 12, a document adjusted by Nanjing credit policy was exposed, announcing that the minimum down payment ratio of the second house could be reduced to 30 %, and the next day the next day again Stop.

A top 100 housing enterprise executives revealed that Nanjing has implemented a comprehensive cancellation of one and a half months. Foreigners can buy a house with ID cards and bank cards, but even more terrible is that in the past month, the gold nine -nine promotion is superimposed. In August, the transaction area of ​​the new house decreased by 13%month -on -month. The decline in the first half of September was still expanding, and the transaction area was only 38%in July before the New Deal.

According to data from the statistics of 14 second -tier cities in the middle finger research institute, during the Mid -Autumn Festival holiday, the total transaction area of ​​Nanjing's total transaction area was 0.1 million square meters, a year -on -year decrease of 89%, ranking first.

Earlier, the aforementioned eastern city officials have revealed that they have paid attention to the release of Suzhou and Ningbo across the region.

As a city that is still the first queue in the country's market sales and land market in the year, the eastern city officials admit that the possibility of green lights in such cities is less likely to turn on the green lights. During the year, its city has developed a plan for liberalization of the entire region, but it has not been approved in the end.

Compared with the selection of house purchase subsidies and repeatedly reducing the threshold for house purchase, this eastern city has chosen another regulatory idea: fully liberalized purchase restrictions, increase house tickets, and introduce purchasing power. "The number of new pre -sale sets is related to the specific housing tickets, but now (its city), in addition to the polar red disk capped restrictions, most of the new house signing rates are still high. Our goal is to maintain the degree of hot lots. "The eastern city officials revealed that under the atmosphere of the red disk, the confidence of residents to buy a house can recover, and the market can flow, instead of relying on fiscal issuance of tens of thousands of yuan for subsidy stimulus.

The Economic Observation News was informed that Tianjin, Hangzhou and other places have been brewing to liberalize the purchase restriction policy. Some cities still wait and see according to their soldiers. Essence

"After the purchase restriction is released, it depends on the transaction volume. The amount cannot come, and the situation is more severe. It shows that the demand has continued to be released in the past year. . "The aforementioned eastern urban officials believed that in the short term, through the release restriction of purchase restrictions, the transaction volume was increased again. Looking at the active market, it was actually a signal of housing prices. Most of the second and third lines, so the release of the nation's (except first -tier cities) can only bring incremental purchase restrictions on the new first and part of the second line.

The aforementioned eastern urban officials admitted that there is a certain risk of restrictions on the release of the city, and I have to "do nothing", cover up, and face the risk of being stopped and "one -day tour". Window period -When all cities open their brakes, the money in the national property market flows up, and first breaks out and removes a batch of inventory. Most cities may give leading the economic cities in the province, because the population and resources of such cities are good, which can drive the demand for loans. The provincial capital cities are optimistic about the wind direction. The second round is followed up. He explained.

The good news came out, and the developers also heard the news. After a head -of -the -headed private enterprise investing in the news that the news was limited, the group specially applied to the group's third batch of land supply in its city to increase investment. Increase the price of the license. The next day, the soil auction was heating up, and eight land touched the highest price to enter the lottery.

Not easy to reverse

A deputy provincial officials told the Economic Observation News that there are not many cities that are truly restricted and suppressed at present. There are only first -tier and second -tier cities. It is not meaningful to lift the purchase restriction. efficient.

"Now it is insufficient purchasing power, not restrictions on purchase restrictions." He emphasized that the release of core cities for purchase restrictions will only accelerate the collapse of the country. The urban agglomeration of the ring one line directly enters the freezing point of the property market. This is only lethal and no contribution. There are only two effective methods for cultivating purchasing power: reducing the cost of buying houses and restoring market confidence.

If you let go of the purchase restriction, its policy significance is more than the actual role, and the guidance of "the government supports the recovery of the property market", but often the implementation measures will run counter to the guidance ideas, and the difference is thousands of miles. Therefore, all places must be alert to blind and disorderly release Open restrictions.

He further explained that after liberalizing the purchase restriction, the financial policy must be corrected and landed softly. "You cannot fly to the maximum air to turn off the engine.

On September 14th, a news was almost out of the same time as Suzhou liberalized purchase restrictions -first -tier cities Guangzhou chose another regulatory strategy: dynamically adjust the filing price of the new project, "one room, one price" was from the original building. The average price is positive and negative 6%to be adjusted to up to 10%, and the downward floats 20%.

Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban -Rural Development, believes that the current market situation has changed greatly. On the one hand, high prices are sold well and even in short supply; Therefore, real -time adjustments need to be adjusted in real time. Some disks can increase prices in real time, and some disks can reduce prices.

The aforementioned eastern urban officials bluntly stated that Guangzhou focuses on letting real estate companies try to live, rather than holding up the price and smashing the house. The higher price limit threshold can return the property market to the market.

A TOP30 private enterprise executive calls on the restrictions on the purchase restriction with the first -tier cities, but he also understands that at this stage, the property market must be gradually liberalized in batches. Through new first -tier cities to form a demonstration effect. recover. "If there is no regulatory means restrictions, in a city agglomeration, money will be concentrated in the core place, and it is inevitable that the TOP30 private enterprise executives will be mobilized by the group plus the entire group. Lay off the supply of restricted cities, and actively sell houses while the window period. After fully liberalizing the purchase restrictions, the original solidified housing purchase pattern will be broken, and forward -looking and investment -oriented houses are more likely to occur in new first -tier cities or resource -based cities.

The aforementioned eastern urban officials also added that the move may accelerate the imbalance of regional supply in the housing structure.

12 -year tight curse

The purchase restriction is an important weapon for regulating the real estate market. Although it has been controversial from the beginning of its promulgation, from the perspective of economics, the market will adjust price fluctuations according to demand. Therefore, some views believe that they should not use administrative means to restrict transaction freedom.

Looking back on the development of the purchase limit, there have been several times and tightness in the past 12 years, with 3 large cycles:

From 2010 to 2013 is the stage of regulation and tightening.

In 2008, the U.S. subprime crisis broke out, triggering a financial crisis that swept the world. The Chinese government issued a 4 trillion investment plan to adopt a loose policy to boost the property market and promote the fieryness of the property market. In 2008, the central government issued four documents successively, requiring reducing real estate transaction taxes, down payment ratio and personal credit interest rates.

On April 17, 2010, the State Council issued the "Notice on Resolutely curbing the rapid rise in housing prices in some cities", requiring housing prices to rise too fast cities to restrict the number of household purchase sets, which was called the "purchase restriction order" by the industry.

Half a month later, Beijing announced that "Beijing family can only buy a new commercial house", and the country's first purchase restriction order was released. Since then, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other cities have followed up, and accompanied by the introduction of the "National Eighth Articles" in 2011, from the first -tier cities to the second and third -tier cities, the real estate was in the rising cycle at that time. By the end of 2011, the domestic domestic. 46 cities in 70 large and medium cities have issued a purchase restriction policy.

The first round of purchases continued until 2014. The first phase of the purchase restriction policy has also made real estate demand being curbed, the airlift area of ​​commercial housing is large, and the real estate inventory increases. At this time, the economy is also facing a downward trend. In order to stimulate the market recovery, local governments have loosen the purchase restriction policy. Hohhot took the lead in canceling the implementation of the three -year purchase restriction policy nationwide. By the end of January 2016, 46 nationwide purchase cities, only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Sanya 5 5 I did not cancel the purchase restriction.

However, with the rearrassment of the property market in 2016, major cities across the country have successively introduced the second round of purchase restrictions, and the intensity has been stricter than the first round, and it has continued to this day.

Some opinion believes that the purchase restrictions anchor the housing and rigid residence together, especially in the stage of the shortage of housing, the sharp contradiction between supply and demand, and abundant financial liquidity. , Sales restrictions, signing restrictions, departure, price limit, business restrictions, etc., the basic means of purchase restrictions need to be re -examined.

On September 14, Wang Shengjun, the director of the Housing Reform and Development Department of the Ministry of Housing and Construction, stated at the "Ten Years of China" series of theme press conferences that since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the housing system of multiple main supply, multi -channel guarantee, and rent -purchase housing system has gradually gradually been gradually gradually gradually gradually. Improved, "housing does not fry" has become a social consensus.

Jiang Wanrong, deputy minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development, introduced that the scale of Chinese housing supply has continued to increase in the past ten years, and the sales area of ​​commercial housing has a total of 13.234 billion square meters, which is 2.2 times the last ten years. While improving the housing market system, China has also actively accelerated the improvement of housing security systems with public rental housing, affordable rental housing, and common property housing. During the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" period, 40 key cities will raise 6.5 million (room) guarantee rental housing, which can solve the problem of housing difficulties of nearly 20 million new citizens and young people. By the end of 2021, more than 38 million people in difficulties lived in public rental housing.

The aforementioned TOP30 private enterprise executives have called on when the market is urgently needed to bift and the housing security system is becoming increasingly improved, the relevant departments shall orderly liberalize the purchase restriction policy and regulate in two markets: one is to allow the commercial housing market to return to the market, and the other is to return to the market, and the other is to return to the market. Continue to increase the protection of housing demand for low -income people.

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