The property market "due to the city's policy" continues to deepen: restricted policies are gradually weakening

21st Century Business Herald reporter Zhang Min Beijing report

On September 15, the official public account of the Qingdao Housing and Urban -Rural Development Bureau issued a statement saying that the scope of the housing restriction policy was reduced, except for the city's southern and cities (except the former Sifang area), the purchase restriction policy was no longer implemented. At the same time, two -child and three -child families can purchase 1 house, and residents in the field have been restricted to one set for half a year; second -hand housing no longer restricted purchase.

On the same day, Jinan Daily released news that Jinan continued to implement restrictions on the purchase restrictions on the Liba District and the city central district within the second ring. This also means that other areas of Jinan are no longer included in the scope of purchase restrictions.

Prior to this, Ningbo and Suzhou also adjusted the purchase restriction policy respectively, making it more conducive to the release of just needs and improving sexual needs.

In order to stabilize the property market, recently, the rhythm of policy in various places has further accelerated. Since September this year, many hot cities have optimized the existing regulatory policies. The content involves two -child and three -child families allowing multiple houses, relaxation of provident fund policies, and issuing house purchase subsidies. Many cities also directly relax the purchase restriction policy Essence In addition, some cities have also reported news that the proportion of new housing filing prices floats, indicating that the restricted policy of prices is also weakening.

Behind these adjustments is the encouragement of the regulatory layer to "make good use of the policy tool box" and the concerns of lack of confidence in the market.

After three interest rate cuts during the year, the credit cost of the real estate market has been at a low level. Today, with the further weakening of various restricted policies, can the confidence of the real estate market recover?

"Stable property market" map

In this round of adjustments, in addition to second -tier cities such as Ningbo, Suzhou, Qingdao, and Jinan, some third -tier cities have also been introduced.

In early September, Hunan Changde and Xiangyang, Hubei optimized the provident fund loan policy, including increasing the upper limit of the provident fund loan quota, relaxing the standards for the calculation of the family loan repayment capacity of applicants, and so on. Xuzhou issued a post on September 13 to increase the highest amount of three -child family provident fund loans. In addition, Lanxi City, Zhejiang Province, Taizhou City, Jiangsu Province, and Liuyang City, Hunan Province also issued policies this month to attract measures for buyers in order to issue house purchase subsidies and allow two children and three -child families to purchase multiple houses.

The district and county -level government departments also show a sense of urgency. On September 13th, Ci County and Cheng'an County, a subordinate of Handan City, Hebei Province, issued the "Ten Policies and Measures on Supporting Patient Circle and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry" to optimize the property market policies and detailed the tasks into various functional departments. Earlier, the High -tech Zone Management Committee of Anhui Province also issued documents to implement house purchase subsidies in the region.

The optimization of the property market policy covers cities of different levels of energy, reflecting the general phenomenon of deepening the policy of the city. Some analysts pointed out that after the monetization of the shed reform, the demand for the third and fourth -tier property market was insufficient, and the growth has been weak in recent years. Compared with the first and second -tier cities with greater demand potential, the status quo is more worthy of attention.

It is worth noting that many cities have not adjusted policies for the first time. For the purpose of stabilizing the market, many cities have optimized policies many times this year.

Taking Qingdao as an example, on June 3 this year, Qingdao adjusted the real estate policy in the central urban area, and transferred Huangdao District, Chengyang District (including High -tech Zone), and Wang Gezhuang Street, Laoshan District. In May and August, Qingdao also adjusted the provident fund policy twice.

The Middle Finger Research Institute pointed out that since this year, more than 250 provinces and cities across the country have optimized and adjusted the property market policies of more than 700 times. Among them, April-June was a period of policy densely introduced; July-August, localities have slowed down due to urban policy; since September, this rhythm has further accelerated.

The support and encouragement from the regulatory authorities are the main reasons for the recent deepening of the city's policy. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on July 28 pointed out that the city's policy boxes were used to use a good policy tool box. At the end of August, the executive meeting of the State Council also stated that it allows local "one city, one policy" to flexibly use credit policies such as credit to reasonably support rigid and improved housing needs.

Yan Yuejin, the research director of the Think Tank Center of the E -House Research Institute, told the 21st Century Business Herald that in recent years, the central regulatory authorities have emphasized "compact local responsibilities" in the regulation of the property market, but at the same time, it also gives local governments greater adjustment authority. Therefore, many cities have recently introduced the policy of stabilizing the property market and have not encountered the dilemma of "one -day tour".

He pointed out that in accordance with the existing policy direction, the continued optimization of the property market policy is a major trend in the future, mainly manifested as the weakening of various restricted policies such as purchase, loan restrictions, and price limit. However, in key first and second -tier cities, it is not realistic that it is unrealistic that it is unrealistic that it is unrealistic that it is unrealized to be canceled by these policies.

Stable expectation to strengthen confidence

In terms of market, the demand for stable expectations and strengthening confidence has been very urgent.

In 2022, the property market was slightly sluggish, but compared with previous years, the overall transaction data was not bad. In the first quarter of this year, although the sales scale of commercial housing nationwide was lower than the same period last year, it was still higher than the same period in 2018, 2019 and 2020. In the second quarter, some cities have a lot of pressure to rebound. Under strict prevention and control measures, real estate transactions were blocked. In April and May, the scale of commercial housing transactions set a new low of the same period of nearly five years.

During this period, regulatory departments at all levels launched a number of stabilization measures. In mid -May, the regulatory department limited the first set of mortgage interest rates to reduce 20 basis points on the basis of 5 -year LPR, and then announced the interest rate cut. In June, various indicators in the real estate market improved. Among the 70 large and medium cities included in the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of cities with rising house prices reached a new high since September last year. However, in late June, some projects suspended loan and spreading, and spread, which brought a certain psychological impact on the market. In July, as the traditional off -season arrives, the scale of real estate transactions has declined significantly, and the momentum of the property market is blocked. In August, the central bank cut interest rates again, but market transactions still did not really improve.

Entering the traditional "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the market still performs poorly. According to the monitoring of the Middle Independence Research Institute, during the Mid -Autumn Festival holiday this year, the scale of transactions on behalf of urban commercial housing decreased by more than 30 % compared with the Mid -Autumn Festival holiday last year. The agency believes that the current emotions of the real estate market are still relatively sluggish and it takes time to repair.

On August 15 this year, Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Economic Economic Affairs, said at the press conference, "Generally, the real estate market is showing a downward trend, and the current overall stage is at the bottom." People in the industry generally believe that this underworld has continued to this day.

Can the policy deepen this round of policy be the purpose of strengthening confidence?

Yan Yuejin believes that on the one hand, it depends on the strength of the policy and whether the superimposed effect can be realized. Cities with great policy and targeted effects are easier to reflect; on the other hand, it depends on the fundamentals of the city. Large first -tier cities are easier to warm up.

The relevant person in charge of a listed real estate company in Beijing believes that as far as the overall market is concerned, the recovery of confidence may take a long time. Because compared to the "burden reduction" of demand, there are still many restricted terms to the supply side. And in view of the complexity of enterprises and the cyclical characteristics of real estate development, the recovery of corporate confidence may require a longer cycle.

However, he also believes that under the strong "insurance delivery" measures in various places, in the short term, the panic of the market is expected to alleviate and it is expected to gradually recover.

At present, some positive signals have appeared. On September 15th, the third round of the concentrated soil auction in Hangzhou in 2022 was concluded. All 19 plots were successfully transferred. The total transaction value was 43.06 billion yuan, the average transaction floor price was 20741 yuan/square meter, and the average premium rate was 5.13%. The Middle Finger Research Institute pointed out that in this round of soil shooting, various indicators performed well, and the participation of real estate companies was high, which not only reflects the toughness of the Hangzhou property market, but also brings certain confidence to other cities.

Analysts pointed out that the third round of soil shooting in the carried out in 2022 is expected to become a "barometer" for market changes. The effect of this round of policy will be reflected in the soil auction.

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