The world's hottest real estate market is facing major adjustments

American Bloomberg September 12 article, original topic: the hottest real estate market in the world is facing a painful restart

The cost of lending in the world is squeezing home and owners. From Sydney to Stockholm to Seattle, with the central banks of various countries fell at the fastest rate of interest rate housing at the fastest rate of decades, house buyers have left the market. At the same time, people who buy a house at the peak of the epidemic period will face a higher repayment with the loan interest rate.

The rapid cooling of the real estate market may exacerbate the global economic recession.

Although the current economic decline is not close to the level of the financial crisis in 2008, it is a key variable for central bank officials who want to inhibit inflation and do not want to combat consumers' confidence and cause deep decline.

Australia and Canada, such as bubbles, are facing double -digit house prices falling. Economists believe that housing prices in the world have just begun. Professor of Japan's University of Law and the former Japanese central bank economist Hi Tian Yingming said: "We will see the global real estate market in 2023 and 2024."

The impact of real estate financing costs on the economy is many aspects. Families with loans tightened their trousers and belts, and the amount of repayment of the rising repayment hindered potential buyers to enter the market, dragging down real estate prices and real estate development.

In the years after the financial crisis, the central bank's loose monetary policy promoted the prosperity of real estate, and the subsequent epidemic started to find greater space and houses suitable for remote office. Essence At present, as the inflation soaring and the potential recession strikes, people who buy houses at high prices are facing a re -increase in housing loans.

The degree of borrower is affected by rising interest rates. For example, in the United States, most buyers use fixed interest rate mortgages for 30 years. In the past five years, the average of about 7%of conventional loans has been regulated mortgage loans.

In contrast, fixed interest rate loans in other countries usually have only one year limit, or floating interest rate loans that are closely related to official interest rates.

Many countries have a large proportion of mortgage loans. For example, in New Zealand, about 55%of residential mortgage loans are repaid before July 2023. In 2021, house prices in New Zealand rose nearly 30%, which can be said to be a typical representative of the epidemic real estate boom and shattering.

33 -year -old insurance manager Berg bought a house at Wellington in March 2021 at Wellington. According to the data of the real estate valuation website, in the next few months, her real estate value has soared to 1 million New Zealand dollars. Now these income has evaporated, and the current value is almost the same as when she bought it. Berg said: "I really think my personal financial situation has declined."

In other countries, this impact has also begun to spread. About 1.8 million British borrowers will make re -financing next year. Although the United States has re -adjusted the risk of mortgage loans, the surge in borrowing costs in recent months has forced buyers to be squeezed to the more flexible and lower interest rate loans.

In Australia and Canada, the worst market for real estate bubbles around the world, economists are expected to have significant tightening.

Although most Canadian home buyers must receive pressure testing before obtaining a loan, making general breach of contracts unlikely to occur, a tightening seems to have been going to happen, and the entire economy will feel. (Author Enda Coron, Ansley Thomson, translated by Chen Xin) ▲ ▲

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