Ding Zuyu: The performance of the executives will "cheer up" collectively. How does the real estate confidence recover?

Zhongxin Jingwei, September 13th. Question: The performance of the executives will be "cheer" collectively. How does the real estate confidence recover?

Ding Zuyu Enterprise Group CEO CEO

In the 2022, more than half of the mid -quarter. Judging from the real estate companies that have held performance conferences, many real estate executives believe that: the current real estate market has built a bottom, and the industry confidence is recovering.

From the data point of view, the new house market in 2022 has stabilized in May and June, and it has fallen in July and August. It can basically be judged as a second bottom. The second -hand housing market is relatively good, and it has basically stabilized in July and August, which has become a good signal in the market.

In the future, the real estate market will show a "L -shaped" trend. In the third quarter of 2022, the market will gradually approach the bottom of the "L shape". The industry will also go through a long bottom building process.

The performance of executives will collectively "cheer up"

The head of the first real estate company that shouted "survive" adheres to the judgment of "the short -term market has built the bottom, and recovery is a slow and gentle process".

The chairman of Vanke's board of directors Yu Liang said at the company's mid -term performance meeting: "The market is high or low, it is impossible to rise unilaterally or it is impossible to fall unilaterally. We must respect common sense and fear the market.

At the media press conference held by Vanke, Yu Liang also said: "There are market capacity, and future houses will be iterated naturally with aging. The future is a moderate recovery process. This will be a change of wave -type."

Mo Bin, president of Country Garden Group, said at the company's mid -term performance meeting that since the market has declined in June 2021 to this day, the market has entered the bottom and is in the end of the bottom consolidation. Now the most important thing is the recovery of market confidence. He believes that in June 2023, the market should be able to return to the stage of healthy development.

Mo Bin informed that the Chinese real estate market has a scale of more than 10 trillion yuan each year, and this scale is at least 10 years.

Yan Jianguo, chairman of the board of directors of Zhonghai Real Estate, believes that the real estate market is still under pressure in the short term, but the medium and long -term market is better. In the future, real estate is still a huge industry that can persist for a long time. "The market is still consolidating at the bottom, and confidence is still recovering."

Lin Zhong, chairman of the Board of Directors of Xuhui Group, said that at present, the real estate market is in the process of recovery. Due to the hot weather in July and August 2022, and the impact of stop work, some demand was postponed. With the improvement of policies and temperatures, market panic will disappear, and demand will gradually be released. Real estate sales are expected to increase from 20%to 30%in September and October.

Taken together, the main views of many housing enterprise executives at the performance meeting are concentrated in the following points:

First, the scale of the industry is still huge, and there is a future if there is demand. Second, the market has built a bottom, confidence is recovering, and the process will be relatively slow.

The future of real estate is a long -term building process

Since 2022, the second bottom of the real estate market has a significant trend.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, since the beginning of 2022, the monthly sales area and amount of monthly commercial housing in the country reached the low level in April 2022, respectively, 87.22 million square meters and 813.4 billion yuan, the lowest point from 2021 to the present. The impact of multiple factors such as the performance of housing sprints and loose policies in the middle of the year. Yuan, can then fall in July and August, which can basically be judged as a second bottom.

Fortunately, in terms of second -hand housing, after the downward period of the market for more than half a year and the loose adjustment of the policy, the second -hand housing market in major cities showed the tough side and the market size was heated.

According to Kerry data, in July 2022, the transaction volume of second -hand housing in 15 key cities across the country increased by 3%month -on -month and narrowed to 11%year -on -year. During this pulled, the cumulative decline in the first July of 15 cities narrowed to 38%. Among them, Suzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Luzhou and Baoji rose more than 10%month -on -month.

In August, 13 key cities sold a total of 9.71 million square meters, a decrease of 6%month -on -month, from negative to positive year -on -year, an increase of 1%, which was basically the same as the same period in 2021. The second -hand housing market performance was slightly better than the new housing market.

Judging from the year -on -year growth rate of new houses and second -hand houses in key cities in the country, the trend of new housing and second -hand housing transactions in key cities across the country has always been synchronized. The transaction of new houses has shifted from positive year -on -year, and the decline has expanded to more than 40%. Subsequently, the transaction of second -hand housing rises year -on -year.

This is mainly due to the "delivery of anxiety" in the market. Many home buyers, especially those who just need to buy a house, turn to buy second -hand housing, which has stabilized the second -hand housing market in July and August.

Although many real estate companies have continued to boost morale at the mid -term performance meeting in 2022, the overall confidence in the real estate industry is still slightly insufficient. We predict that in 2022, it will still be a loose period of real estate policy. In the future, the real estate industry will eventually appear a three -point pattern of central enterprises and local state -owned enterprises, large -scale private enterprises, and local private enterprises. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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