The four reasons for the four points of LPR interest rates in June

Key points: LPR remains unchanged and does not mean that the property market will be affected. With the end of the epidemic, a package of bailout epidemic landing, coupled with the early period of the central bank's reduction and targeted interest rates on the property market, the intensive bailout property markets in the early stage are expected to have a significant improvement in the property market in June, especially hot cities.

The following is the content shared in the one -hour meeting of Li Yujia at the one -hour meeting of the applet (if you want to understand the details of the meeting):

Author | Li Yujia

Chief Researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Provincial Planning Institute (TA has settled in the app mini program)

On June 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Bank of China Interbank Borrowing Center to announce that the national loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) in June 1 year was 3.7%, and the same month was 3.7%; The month is 4.45%. Both 1 -year and 5 -year period remain unchanged. Data released recently from January to May show that the decline in sales in the property market is expanding, and the market demand is still weak. As a result, 5 -year LPRs from all walks of life have entered a new round of decline. Therefore, this time LPR was not moving, slightly beyond market expectations.

Then, according to market expectations, after the new round of LPR price adjustment window in June may continue to be lowered. Because from from the beginning to May, the declines of various indicators in the real estate market are expanding, especially sales data. The sales of commercial housing and the sales of residential houses from the first to May were about two or three percentage points from from January to April. The sales of commercial housing fell by 31.5%, and the sales of commercial housing fell by 34.5%, which was relatively large. The entire new start fell by 30%, and land purchase dropped by 45.7%. Therefore, all parties expect that the entire LPR will go down, which is a common point of view. Moreover, there is another point of view that now everyone's ability to buy is insufficient, and the ability to buy a house for new citizens need to reduce the cost of buying a house in an all -round way in order to hedge the next high housing price. For the restrictions on purchasing power, and everyone is more pessimistic about the real estate market.

So why did not reduce the LPR in June? I think there are mainly the following aspects.

First, from the 70 -city house price index released on Friday, we can clearly see that the housing prices in the entire first -tier cities and hot cities have begun to rise, and the prices of new houses in first -tier cities have risen for 5 consecutive months. From 0.2%in April to 0.4%; second -hand housing prices first -tier cities rose for 6 consecutive months. And from the ranking of the increase, the increase in cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou are high. Therefore, if you continue to reduce interest rates in general and inclusive, there may be a new round of rising housing prices in hot cities, which is unwilling to see management.

The second is that the rise of the real estate market is mainly due to the rebound of sales. In order to drive new construction, land acquisition, can drive the risk of problems in real estate companies. The epidemic has ended, so the property market will naturally get better. This is a view of management on hot cities. So we see the previous hot cities regulatory. After arriving in first -tier cities, the regulation stopped abruptly, and there were no restrictions on purchases like other cities. Then the management means that after the epidemic is over, coupled with the previous rescue epidemic, the bailout property market, reducing the LPR, the property market will naturally improve.

Third, from the perspective of the changes in the LPR itself, the LPR of one -year LPR has fallen as much as possible, and the five -year LPR decreases less or unchanged. Suddenly, the five -year LPR was reduced by 15 percentage points, and the first house can also decrease another 20 basis points on the basis Essence Therefore, June should be an observation period of policy, and LPR remains unchanged.

Fourth, we see that in May, residents' medium- and long -term loans increased by 104.7 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 337.9 billion yuan, showing that the enthusiasm of loans to buy a house was insufficient. However, at the same time, in May, household deposits increased by 739.3 billion yuan, an increase of 632.1 billion yuan year -on -year. What is reflected behind is the current cautious mentality of residents. For another example, in May, the medium- and long -term loans of enterprises increased by 555.1 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 97.7 billion yuan. The corporate credit structure was still poor, and medium- and long -term loans were still weak. Then this shows that the medium and long -term financing of enterprises and residents is not high. Therefore, we believe that the current market is not short of money, and the market funds are very large, but the enthusiasm of everyone's financing is not high. In fact, we see that the interest rates of interbank borrowings and national debt yields have been reduced to a relatively low level, which is equivalent to saying that there is no shortage of money in the market, and what is lacking is confidence.

Therefore, we look at the "Opinions on Further Release Consumption Potential to Promote the Continuity of Consumption" issued by the State Council. It clearly says that tax reduction and exemption, financial subsidies, and credit costs have declined, and consumption of residents has been pushed up. So now, it is not to say that consumption will increase, but instead of the insufficient enthusiasm and confidence of residents' consumption. This is the biggest problem. If you continue to reduce LPR blindly, the housing prices in the property market in first -tier cities will rise, which will drive housing prices in hot second- and third -tier cities to rise. A new round of housing prices have risen, which has exacerbated the difficulty of buying a house for new citizens, and speculation in the new round of property market. Funding to the property market has exacerbated the situation of difficult financing of small and medium -sized private enterprises. Therefore, management is not willing to see this, so LPR remains unmoved. Then LPR remains unchanged and does not mean that the property market will be affected. We know that the early LPR has fallen sharply, and third- and fourth -tier cities have basically dropped to a relatively low level. Although the first -tier cities have not dropped so low, it has also fallen by 15 basis points simultaneously, so the overall interest rate, while declined, also added the epidemic in the past, will definitely drive the rebound in the real estate market.

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