Where does the Jinan property market go?This article is through

Author: double gun will

Source: "Sudden Horn" WeChat public account (ID: Baotushijiao)

On the evening of August 12, a message was frequent for the circle of friends. The minimum down payment ratio of the second home payment of the personal housing provident fund loan in Jinan was adjusted from 60%to 40%. This is after Jinan's policy market policy in May and the down payment ratio of commercial loans of the two -suite to 40%, the provident fund loan has also been consistent in policies.

Recently, the news of the Jinan property market has been frequently spread.

The graduation season is again. On August 9, the Jinan Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government held a press conference to mention that by 2025, one of the three new houses in the city will be added to college graduates who come to Jiushi Ji employment and entrepreneurship. prepare.

Jia Meng, a first -level investigator of the Jinan Housing and Urban -Rural Development Bureau, introduced that one of the problems facing college graduates came to Jixiu Ji Employment and Entrepreneurship is the problem of residence, and the living talent can be happy. Focusing on "living", a group of "exclusive benefits" covering a house purchase and renting houses in Jinan introduced as much as possible to meet the living needs of different graduates as much as possible.

The city is people -oriented, and the city is home.

A policy of cities' talents also stimulates the nerves of the real estate industry. If the government takes out the real gold and silver, it can promote the growth of the population, which means that the demand for housing is increased. Moreover, this money is still used on buying a rent.

The real estate industry is associated with the same relationship.

Since the second half of last year, the real estate market has gone through the deep adjustment of the pain. Most of the news in the real estate industry reported by the media has made people in this industry shock, and it is also difficult to get used to buying a house for buying a house.

The real estate market that loses high leverage soil has changed its operating logic structure. The change of the game is inevitable, and Jinan is no exception.

The change of the game is not to be stunned in this way, but to return to the reasonable track of "price reflect value".

After the market bottomed out, the bottom -ups gradually appeared. After the pessimistic decline in the first quarter, after the proper regulation of the property market policy, Jinan's real estate market entered a time -oriented period. The policy surface is relaxing, the market is recovering, and the warm wind blows, and the most difficult period has passed.

Jinan, "Fangqing" rose.

Light show night scene picture from the Internet

【one】

Chunjiang Water Warm Duck Prophet.

Is the market clearest? The real estate enterprise restarted the land, and the market is about to warm up.

The Jinan real estate market in August opened the prelude to a land auction. The highest price limit of the party school East and Tang Ye A5 plot is the first time since the implementation of the new rules of Jinan's "Limited Price and Progress of Construction and Construction". Like the hot weather, the fiery real estate companies bid, and eventually win in 1 second in a "fast -fighting" way. Such a scene has been lost for a long time.

Some people are metaphorically that the relationship between soil auction and house prices is like flour and bread. Each soil shot is a temperature measurement of the property market. From the development of the developer's land, we can see a real estate trend of a city.

In 2021, 22 key cities across the country implemented the "two episodes" for residential land, and this year is the second year. In the first half of this year, the downward market on the market affected the sales money of housing companies, and also affected the enthusiasm of real estate companies to get land. From the perspective of the first batch of centralized land supply "transcripts" in 22 key cities, the supply of land supply and transactions has been greatly reduced, and the situation of soil shooting in most cities is generally cold. The 35 land launched by Jinan, 14 were shot, and finally successfully transferred 21 plots; the 30 plots launched by Tianjin concentrated soil auction were sold only 6 land; and Changchun's first batch of concentrated land this year was only based on only the concentrated land supply land this year. The base price sells a piece of land ... the situation is not very good.

After a few months, the second batch of concentrated land supply soil shots were fighting again. Qingdao, Hefei, Suzhou, and Ningbo, which were taken the lead, did not gain too good results. However, after a round of policies, after a moderate regulation, Jinan, the performance can be described as a surprise. There are 2 premiums in 18 land in the main urban area, and all the remaining reserve prices are sold. The transaction premium rate of 16 house -related land was 2.6%, which also increased by 1.6 percentage points from the first round.

More importantly, unlike previous state -owned enterprises, state -owned enterprises, and brand housing companies, this time Jinan's soil auction hot spot can be called "private enterprise meeting". Local private housing companies are actively signing up. Development companies in other places occupy over half of the seats. In the local area of ​​real estate companies that have achieved development results, they entered Jinan's "Big Brother" market to find new growth points.

Local housing companies enter the provincial capital, reflecting the optimistic of the strong background of the multi -profit superposition, which is optimistic about the "strong provincial capital".

The former mayor of Chongqing City Mayor Huang Qifan analyzed the real estate market under the inflection point, and made a judgment: in the past ten years, the real estate market has almost blossomed and comprehensively build housing; Gradually advance, real estate construction will mainly focus on three hot areas: one is the central city, that is, the provincial capital cities and the same level of regional central cities; the other is the metropolitan area; the third is the urban agglomeration of hotspots.

A positive degree of participation in housing enterprises can be confirmed enough.

【two】

Walking steadily, running fast, and far away.

The epidemic of spring and summer interruption has repeatedly interrupted the pace of economic recovery. As the downlink pressure continued to increase, the regulation and control policies of the property market in various places under the "policy of the city" came out frequently. In just one month, a total of over 80 cities in the country issued a new policy of stabilizing the property market. Among them, many second- and third -tier hot cities have continued to move in Zhengzhou, Harbin, Lanzhou, Fuzhou, Nanjing and other places.

However, at the same time as the "loosening" of the water market in various places, the phenomenon of "one -day tour" of the New Deal has also appeared, and the bottom line of the property market behind the stopping market is also increasingly clearer. In this background, which "card" does Jinan play? In the second Sunday of May, Jinan broke the relaxation of the weekend and released three adjustment policies such as the scope of purchase restrictions, sales conditions and provident fund loans. In the evening of the next day, the new measures "additional" measures again, "two -suite commercial loan payment 'six changes and four", "first house recognition of house recognition", "non -city households' household loans to be adjusted to 30 %" ... Compared to the first first, compared to the first first Second, stronger strength.

The regulation of the two bullets markets is progressive. The fastest response is the number of real estate companies. Many real estate advertisements for "24 hours without snoring" overnight, and the popular sales office came back again. The long -awaited market found the exit of venting.

However, for regulation, it is not stable. Jinan officials have qualitatively defined this regulation as "moderate regulation". Sure enough, after half a month "carnival", the market continued to stabilize, following its own rhythm, and the steps gradually recovered.

What is the effect of this "card"? The number will speak.

Before the property market regulation was introduced, there were 11,632 units in April in April of Jinan Commodity Housing. After the property market regulation was introduced, the Jinan Commodity Housing had a total of 14,569 units in June, the highest monthly signing volume in the first half of the year. In July, Jinan commercial housing signed a total of 13049 units, although it declined from June, but in the July node of the "off -season" of the property market year, the number of online signing was still significantly improved compared to the New Deal.

【three】

The house is used for living, not for frying.

Since the first time the Central Economic Work Conference was proposed at the end of 2016, the main tone of "houses and not frying" continued to this day. House prices will slowly return to reasonable levels with the real supply and demand relationship.

In the above -mentioned long articles, Huang Qifan asserted that real estate prices will only continue to rise at high speeds. In the past two decades, whether it is coastal or inland inland, land prices and house prices have often turned over 5 years. Two years have doubled, which has formed a momentum of thinking about housing prices and land prices to maintain a high speed. Real estate developers are desperately hoarding land to build houses, and high land prices will be digested by rising house prices. This model is beneficial to map; ordinary people will also ignore the property of real estate and buy a large number of houses as investment. This kind of real estate price thinking sets will be broken, and the trend of continuously rising house prices will enter the inflection point.

Huang Qifan reminded that this inflection point does not mean the significant decline in housing prices in the next five years and ten years, but in addition to some popular locations in the central city in the future, the overall growth trend of house prices is generally the growth rate of the GDP growth rate and the disposable income of residential residents. The growth rate is closely linked.

In April of this year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the price index of new commercial housing in 70 cities across the country rose -0.1%year-on-year. This is the first time since December 2015, housing prices have fallen year -on -year, and the price of new houses has decreased 39 year -on -year cities. By June, this number was still increasing. House prices in 48 cities including Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Changchun, Hefei fell year -on -year, and house prices in only 22 cities rose year -on -year.

What are the "mysteries" of the year -on -year numbers?

The decrease year -on -year shows that the real estate market is facing a large downward pressure. The epidemic is overlapping repeatedly, the decline in revenue expectations has led to a decrease in risk preferences of residents, and market confidence has been blocked. The decline in market transactions has brought pressure on prices.

This time, Jinan stabilized.

Looking at the data this year:

In June, Jinan's new house prices rose 0.3%month -on -month, up 1.7%year -on -year.

In May, Jinan's new house prices rose 0.5%month -on -month, up 2.9%year -on -year.

In April, Jinan's new housing price fell 0.2%month -on -month, up 3.5%year -on -year.

In March, Jinan's new house prices rose 0.3%month -on -month, up 4.5%year -on -year.

In February, Jinan's new house prices rose 0.1%month -on -month, up 4.8%year -on -year.

In January, Jinan's new house prices rose 0.1%month -on -month, up 5.0%year -on -year.

Pulling out the transaction data in recent years, the "Little Yangchun" in the Jinan market in 2021 is prominent. In contrast, the contrast is indeed particularly big this year. However, the 2020 influence of the epidemic is compared with the data of the same period in 2019, which has a normal market performance. In the first half of the year, Jinan transactions were 3.6 million square meters, which was only 500,000 square meters in the first half of this year.

Not blindly optimistic, nor do you need to be overly pessimistic.

Pictures of Jinan Jing Shidong Road from the Internet

【Four】

From "living and living" to "living with excellent residence".

In the "Real Estate and China Economy", Sheng Songcheng and others have a detailed discussion: "With the development of the economy, the real estate industry first meets the needs of the number of residents 'housing, and then meets the needs of residents' living quality. my country's current economic development stage and The development status of the real estate industry shows that my country is located from the number of housing to change from the number of housing to the quality of residence. Providing high -quality residential services is the future development trend of the real estate industry. "

In the Ming Dynasty, you can not be afraid of the clouds.

In the first half of 2022, when the property market was turbulent, the pessimist was frequent. Housing companies in various places have successively "mines", and the development of projects will be stopped and rotten. Various factors make the market with good fundamentals, which leads to the lack of confidence in the property market today.

The market has no "lying flat". In response to the rotten stop of the buyer's worry, the major real estate companies in Jinan have begun to compete from the idealism of "product force" to the "delivery power" competition of surrealist. "The preservation and quantity is delivered on time", the market has an inflection point, and developers are growing. With the norms of the market, the developer re -reshuffled under the survival of the fittest. Not only that, a few days ago, in the "Notice on the Realing and Incentives of the Realing Policies and Measures on the Implementation of Major Policies and Measures in 2021" issued by the General Office of the State Council, Jinan City's transformation of old communities in urban and towns The effectiveness of affordable leasing housing is obviously inspected and inspired. The State Council will arrange appropriate support for the investment in the central budget of the affordable housing project and the central budget of the central budget and the central financial urban affordable housing project.

Only 9 places in the country were rated in the country, and Jinan was also the only in the province.

As a provincial capital of economic strong provinces, it has an area of ​​more than 10,000 square kilometers. The regional GDP exceeds 1 trillion, the population exceeds 10 million, and the fiscal revenue exceeds 100 billion. The continuous ranking of Jinan cities proves that in terms of the development prospects of the real estate market, the fundamentals of Jinan cities are excellent.

Just in the past few days, Jinan has pushed 40 hard core measures to support college graduates to come to help. With the "excellence" of talent living, support the "advancement" of urban development.

College graduates are the first ten cities for employment; the talent attraction index is the eighth nationwide, and the province is first. The city of Jinan has attracted a large number of "new Jinan people" to come here every year, take root, take business, and laid a world of their own world.

The sense of security of rooting may not be more meaningful than the house. Choose a city, stay in a city, and live in a city. Buying a house and living, this is the most simple and true wish of the Chinese for thousands of years.

Ask Qu to be so clear, for the source of living water.

The real estate "moves" reasonably, and the industry can move forward healthy.

【Conclusion】

Under the "strong provincial capital" strategy blessing, Jinan has more space as a space and has been injected with more expectations.

Just as on July 25, the Standing Committee of the Jinan Municipal Party Committee held a meeting to make a meeting: At present and in the future, Jinan's economic development continues to pressure and continues to improve. The real estate market in Jinan is the same.

We must see both the achievements and the sober recognition of the existing problems. We must see both the opportunities and the challenges facing. Focusing on ten key tasks such as promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, it has been included in the important task of Jinan sprint in the second half of the year.

"Living" in Jinan, confident.

Shandong Business Daily · Sudao News editor Liu Qingying

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