Haiyu Financial Comment ｜ July property market is frustrated?The market is the main tone in the second half of the year

This summer, the temperature in many places across the country is high, and the enthusiasm is like fire. And the real estate market, which has attracted much attention, has signs of fire after more than half a year of policy stimulus?

The answer is still negative. The National Bureau of Statistics issued a change in the sales price of 70 cities across the country on August 15. The number of cities in 70 large and medium -sized cities decreased slightly. The sales prices of commercial housing in first -tier cities rose slightly and decreased year -on -year, and the overall decline in second- and third -tier cities showed a decline and a year -on -year decline. Among the 4 cities in Shandong, Jinan's newly -built commercial housing rose for the third consecutive month, but second -hand houses have fallen for 11 consecutive months.

The first half of 2022 may be the most difficult stage in the real estate market. Under the common role of the market downward inertia and key cities last year, the sales of the property market in the local area were almost stagnant, and the rate of decline in real estate investment exceeded expectations.

And in the context of such a big background, since July, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, Hubei, Hubei, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Liaoning and other places have stopped working real estate "forced to stop loan". Back again.

According to incomplete statistics, since this year, 220 provinces and cities across the country have relaxed real estate regulation policies, and the policy introductions have nearly 600 times. Among them, the frequency of the issuance of a single month in April to June has been more than 110 times. From "overall downward trend" in April to "slowing down" in May to "overall stability" in June. It can be said that due to the influence of policies, since the second quarter, the market has shown a good signs of bottom repair. However, the recent unstable factors of some markets have led to the reconfiguration of the new housing market and disturbing the rhythm of the market.

On July 28, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee was held. For the real estate industry, the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to stabilize the real estate market. Persist in the positioning of the house to live and not to speculate. Improve the demand for sexual housing, compact local government responsibilities, keep interactive buildings, and stabilize people's livelihood.

This is the first time that the "Insurance Transfer Building" has been written into the political bureau meeting documents. At the same time, the expression of "stabilizing the real estate market" is in front of the "housing and not frying", which has a clear weathervane significance. The industry believes that this fully shows that the current contradiction in the real estate market is that there have been unstable factor. This unstable factor includes weak market transactions, the emergence of suspension of loan storms, and still greater risk of real estate debt. In the past half of each year, stable real estate should be used as the core goal and work direction of work, that is, it is necessary to eliminate factors that affect the stability of real estate and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.

At present, since the state's statement, Henan, Shaanxi, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Shandong and other places have officially introduced measures of "insurance transit". According to the actual progress, most areas have emphasized the overall leadership of local party committees and municipal governments. Commercial banks and other institutions are closely cooperating, and real estate companies actively participate in multi -party cooperation such as resumption of work.

At the press conference of the National Economic Operations in July 2022, which was held on August 15, Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, also said that although there have been recent real estate project delivery problems in some places, from the perspective of the country, it has been seen from the country. Most of the construction period is more than two years, and the construction of real estate development projects close to the delivery period has remained stable, and the overall risk is controllable.

Real estate is stable, so the recovery of the real estate market is inevitable and necessary. Regardless of the tightening of the past policies, or the current moderate relaxation, it actually belongs to the category of urban policies. It is to ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. All efforts point to a "stable" word.

From the perspective of the real estate market in the first 7 months, although the policy is dense, the effect is weaker than expected. At present, in addition to urban policies and preservation buildings, the central government has also led some funds to solve the realistic problems of the real estate market. These policies are more important and positive compared with before. Insiders believe that at present, there is still room for real estate policies in various places. Loose policies and their expectations will further support the real estate market to gradually recover. It is expected that as the local property market support policy continues to upgrade, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize in the second half of the year. Overall better than the first half of the year.

(Report on the reporter of Volkswagen Daily Client)

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