National new house price reduction 12%

The real estate "slow sales" in May still.

The National Bureau of Statistics recently announced the changes in residential indexes in commercial housing and 70 large and medium -sized cities.

In May, the average sales price of newly built residential buildings nationwide was 9,878 yuan/square meter, which rose from 9671 yuan/square meter and 9674 in the previous two months, but still declining the channel. Compared with the peak of 11,228 yuan in January and February 2021, a decrease of 1350 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 12%.

(Average price trend of new residential residential buildings. Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, Oriental Fortune Choice)

The willingness to buy a house is not strong. In the first five months of this year, personal mortgage loans nationwide decreased by 27%year -on -year. According to the loan ratio, if there are 4 people who purchase new houses in the same period last year, less than 3 people this year.

Monthly real estate sales are still shrinking. In May of this year, the national sales of new residential buildings were 1.05 trillion yuan, 32%less than the same period of the year. This drop is better than April. In April, the cumulative sales of newly built residential houses in the country decreased by 48%year -on -year, which was basically close to the cut.

In May, many policies for the real estate market landed. Regulatory departments reduced interest rates on real estate loans, and many cities loosen real estate regulation policies.

The area to be built to be sold is still not small

From July to December 2021, the number of newly built residential residences has been around 2.2 trillion square meters, and from January and February this year to 2.8 trillion square meters. The data from March to May this year declined, but the area to be sold at the end of May still reached 268 million square meters, which was higher than the level in the second half of 2021.

If the office building and commercial business houses are added, the "backlog" area will reach 554 million square meters. According to the average sales price of these three types of buildings, the "backlog" funds are about 4.4 trillion yuan.

In the first five months of this year, the funds of real estate development companies fell by 26%year -on -year.

The sales of new houses of real estate development enterprises have declined, the funds in place decline, and the amount of funds occupied by the backlog of housing in their hands have increased. No wonder some real estate development companies have complained about the tension of funds.

The real estate leader Vanke (000002.SZ) in May this year was 16405 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 6%and 14%from March and April, respectively. Even so, the company's sales in May are still below March and April.

The average sales price of Sunac China in May this year is 12,640 yuan/square meter. It is the lowest monthly average price since this year and the lowest monthly average price in the past 10 years. In May, Sunac China's sales were only 18%of the same period last year. The company's total sales in the first five months of this year were less than 85%of the values ​​in the first three months of last year.

What is the change in house prices in various cities?

Based on 2020 as the basis, among the 70 large and medium cities across the country, the three western provincial capital cities of Yinchuan, Xi'an and Chongqing are the top three of new housing increases, up 15.6%, 11.8%, and 11.5%, respectively. Changsha and Chongqing, which have always been the real estate price depression of the provincial capital, followed closely, rose by 10.6%and 10.3%at the same time. Beijing ranked 6th and rose 9.7%.

Beijing and Guangzhou are the "champions" and "runner -ups" of second -hand housing prices. Compared with 2020, they rose 14.9%and 12%respectively.

What is the price of house prices in cities where real estate restrictions are purchased in the first quarter?

Zhengzhou's new house and second -hand house price index is still declining. In March of this year, Zhengzhou issued 18 new property markets. The price index of newly -built commercial housing in Zhengzhou, after seeing it in July 2021, has decreased monthly, decreased by 3.66%compared with its peak in May this year. Zhengzhou second -hand housing also topped July 2021, which was lower than a month in the following month. In May this year, it fell 3.44%compared with the peak.

Harbin also loosen the restrictions in March. After the price of Harbin's new house was at the top in May 2021, it basically fell all the way. By May of this year, the decrease exceeded Zhengzhou at 6.37%. Harbin second -hand housing price decreased by 8.5%in 2020.

Source | China Economic Weekly-Economic Network

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