The average vacancy rate of 28 large and medium cities reaches 12 %?A report led to controversy, the Shell Research Institute apologized late at night

Source: E Company ID: lianhuacaijing

On August 5, the public account of the Shell Research Institute released the "2022 Housing vacancy rate survey report" continued to cause heated discussions. It pointed out that the average vacancy rate of 28 large and medium -sized cities reached 12%, etc., and higher than 10%thought that the vacancy rate was too high, indicating that there were excess housing supply and the risk of inventory backlog.

In the early morning of this day, the Shell Research Institute issued a statement that the survey questionnaire was filled in by the front -line practitioners. In actual execution, filling in the deviation of the subjective judgment of the person, the survey samples and procedures are not standardized, the coverage is not comprehensive, and some research questionnaire data collection is wrong. , Resulting in inaccurate data. In addition, the vacancy caliber cannot determine the standards. The survey is based on the "whether the house exists for three consecutive months" as the judgment indicator, which cannot fully reflect the real situation. At the same time, shells emphasize that this report should be internal research materials, which are sent to the Internet to cause discussions from all walks of life, and apologize for this. A reporter from the Securities Times · E company noticed that at present, the Shell Research Institute has deleted the "2022 Housing vacancy survey report" in the public account, and the housing vacancy rate has previously studied many institutions. In 2018, CICC released the "Is China's housing vacancy rate high? The report, which pointed out that at the end of 2017, the empty and narrow housing vacancy rates in China were 16.9%and 12.1%, respectively, including 14.7%and 9.7%of the urban areas, respectively. It believes that although the broad vacancy rate seems to be high, the narrow vacancy rate that is really comparable to the caliber is in a reasonable range, of which the narrow vacancy rate in the urban area is even lower than that of mature markets such as the United States and Japan.

Industry insiders told reporters in Company Es that there are no uniform standards for housing vacancy, and similar reports of research institutions should be launched carefully. On the other hand, the housing vacancy rate index is very important. It can provide a reference for macro -decision -making and help to resolve the risks that the industry may face.

For the first time, the housing vacancy rate since this year

On August 5th, the "Survey Report on the Housing Vacuum Housing Housing Housing Housing in China in 2022" released by the Shell Research Institute focused on the research of 30,000 communities in 28 cities in China, and for the first time, the housing vacancy rate level of major cities since this year.

The Shell Research Institute bluntly said that there is no uniform standard at home and abroad for the definition of vacant housing. Generally speaking, the vacancy rate is reasonable between 5%and 10%. Below this range is considered to be too low, indicating that the demand for housing is strong and the potential demand is high. Higher than 10%believes that the vacancy rate is too high, indicating that there are excess housing supply and the risk of inventory backlog.

The survey results show that the average vacancy rate of 28 large and medium cities in my country is 12%, which is relatively high. The vacancy rate of housing increased in order with the level of urban energy levels, with average first -line line 7%, average second -line 12%, and 16%in the third line. Only nine cities are within a reasonable range, most cities are between 10%-15%, and 6 cities are higher than 15%.

From the perspective of cities, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai have the lowest vacancy rates, all of which are below 7%, while Nanchang, Langfang, and Foshan's housing vacancy rates rank among the top three, all of which are more than 15%.

The Shell Research Institute also stated that the scope of this survey did not include the part of the housing and the existing house to be sold, so it will be lower than other statistical calibers as a whole. Even so, the average vacancy rate of 28 large and medium cities in the Mainland is still at a high level, only lower than Japan, higher than the United States, Canada, France, Australia, and the United Kingdom.

Talking about the reasons for vacancy rates, the report believes that from a macro -level analysis, the threshold, aging, and rental return of house purchase will affect the changes in housing vacancy rates. At the micro level, aging and property types are the two major factors affecting the vacancy rate of the community.

In this regard, for the current status of the vacancy rate of domestic urban housing, the Shell Research Institute believes that a certain degree of housing vacancy rate is reasonable and necessary, but the excessive housing vacancy rate is worthy of vigilance, and its potential risks cannot be ignored. "From the perspective of market supply and demand, vacant houses mean potential supply, and the high -altitude rate rate is equivalent to a large number of potential supply. When house prices are expected to be strong, a large number of vacant houses enter the stock market market will lead to a short -term supply surge, exacerbate supply and demand imbalance and magnification The risk of house prices falls. "

Report release for several days, delete and apologize

After the housing vacancy survey report was released, the sound of controversy on the Internet continued. In this context, the Shell Research Institute deleted and apologized to the report.

In the early morning of the 11th, the Shell Research Institute issued a document to explain the problem of "vacancy" research data involved in the report.

First of all, the survey questionnaire is filled in by the front -line practitioners. In actual execution, filling in the deviation of the subjective judgment of the person, the survey samples and procedures are not standardized, the coverage is not comprehensive, and some research questionnaire data collection is error, resulting in inaccurate data.

Secondly, the caliber caliber cannot be determined. The survey is based on the "whether the house exists for three consecutive months for three consecutive months" as the judgment indicator, which cannot fully reflect the real situation. In the next step, the accuracy of crossing the energy departments such as construction, water, and electricity will be reviewed to do a good job of data review. At the same time, shells emphasize that this report should be internal research materials, which are sent to the Internet to cause discussions from all walks of life, and apologize for this.

"Similar to deletion or incident fermentation or relationship, if the data of the vacancy rate is relatively large, it will objectively affect the expectations of buyers. From this perspective, related research institutions are facing pressure. Many research perspectives and conclusions are also worthy of attention, and it also helps us to better understand the vacancy and resolve the risks of vacancy. "Yan Yuejin, a well -known real estate analyst, told the Securities Times · E Company reporter. Financial commentator Tan Haojun told the company E company that there is no uniform standard for vacancy rates. Therefore, statistical work is difficult, but it is very important to understand the housing vacancy rate index and can provide a reference for the next macro decision of macro decisions. "The deleting report of the Shell Research Institute may face greater pressure, such as the accuracy of data. If the shell does not grasp the data, it is not rigorous to publish an article."

For example, for example, the report of the shell is mainly concentrated in the first- and second -tier cities due to the samples drawn. Compared with the first- and second -tier cities, the housing is not the same compared to the third- and fourth -tier cities. "In this way, the results of the sampling can not represent the overall situation of the real estate market, nor do it fully understand the situation of the empty house, which will adversely affect the decision makers' decision -making decisions."

Editor -in -chief: Wang Lulu

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