The second round of concentrated land supply is imminent, and the risk aversion mentality highlights the heat still to be recovered

21st Century Business Herald reporter Wu Shuying Shenzhen Report

With the concentration of the concentrated land supply in Shenzhen, major cities in the country, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Xiamen, have completed the second round of concentrated land supply.

As one of the barometers of the property market, the performance of the land market is the concentrated manifestation of the current investment preferences of housing companies and the expected expectations of future development.

The positive signal is that although the current land market has a slight decline, it still maintains a good trend. With the general optimization rules of local governments and the participation of state -owned enterprises and state -owned enterprises and some private enterprises, the phenomenon of flow shots has been greatly reduced, of which 34 land was sold in Shanghai; Chengdu, Xiamen and other cities also performed well.

However, because the current prospects of the real estate market are still not very clear, the investment of housing companies also values ​​more definitive areas and plots. Therefore, this round of concentrated land supply heat and heat are not obvious, not only differentiated between cities, but also the fate of different plots in the city.

The typical phenomenon is that in this round of concentrated land supply, many cities have shown the situation of lottery and streaming in parallel, and Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Qingdao have performed very obvious.

In the second round of centralized land supply, the third round of concentrated land supply is about to open, and the expectations of housing companies to the market in the future are also the focus of the current industry's attention. Can the land market see obvious positive changes in the second half of this year?

Differentiated more prominent

In order to make the market active expectations, most of the official land supply officials are cautious. The specific manifestation is that the scale of launching scale is generally reduced, the proportion of plots in the promotion center increase, and the rules are relatively friendly to real estate companies. By reducing margin and reducing the proportion of construction, it is Leave profit space.

Taking Dongguan as an example, most of the eight land launched by Dongguan this year's concentrated supply of land unlimited house prices. In addition, the starting price of the shooting building has also been greatly reduced, and there are still many "bottom box bottoms".

Among the first -tier cities, the scale of concentrated land supply in Guangzhou has a significant shrinkage compared with the same period last year. Most of the rules have canceled "competition self -holding" and "restricting purchase groups" and other links. Constraints; Beijing is also frequent, and star plots such as the Sun Palace and Yalinxi have been launched.

The atmosphere is in place, and the concentrated supply of the ground supply in this round is greatly reduced, and the final results make the market feel relieved.

Among the four first -tier cities, 34 plots of land were launched in Shanghai, and 78 billion yuan was won; Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen also performed well. There are 9 plots in Shenzhen on the top price, and 5 are entered the stage of the lottery.

Nevertheless, a typical phenomenon that this round of concentrated land supply can be observed is that even in popular cities, non -hot areas, or landless plots, are not favored by housing companies.

For example, in Shenzhen's just ending land supply, although the two plots located in Baoan Xin'an and Pingshan Ishii are registered, they eventually appeared due to no one bid.

From the perspective of transfer conditions, Shenzhen Baoan Xin'an Land Occupation Building and Commerce account for more than half, and it is more difficult for future trading. This may be the main reason for its streaming shooting. Pingshan Ishii has received cold encounters because the location is not in Shenzhen.

The current supply of Guangzhou's concentrated land supply is slightly unexpected in the market. However, the reasons for investigation can be understood.

The analysis of the region of the Kri Ruiguang believes that this land has ended the history of zero -time shots in Tianhe's 10 years in the past 10 years. However, due to the poor surrounding environment, inconvenient transportation and low land prices, many interested real estate companies decided to give up after field survey.

This can also be seen that in the current market environment, housing companies value the certainty of investment, so they generally perform cautiously and dare not "bet".

Chen Honghai, the general manager of the regional region of Kri Ruishen, analyzed the results of the land auction of Shenzhen's land, saying that "this round of soil auction is obvious. The land in the core area, such as the Qianhai plot, participated in many real estate companies, and the offer was quickly capped and entered the stagnation stage. At the same time, there is also a streaming phenomenon in this round of soil auction. Two plots are shot because no one bids. "

Chen Honghai continued to say that from Shenzhen's this round of soil shooting, it can be found that the land acquisition logic of housing companies is more refined. From focusing on core cities to focusing on core areas, to more focused core sectors, in the core first -tier cities such as Shenzhen with hot spots in Shenzhen, the same cities are also the same. in this way.

Seeking a new development model

Compared with the first round of concentrated land supply this year, this round of concentrated land supply is unchanged, and the main body of the land is still mainly based on state -owned enterprises and central enterprises. Essence

In the concentrated land supply of Beijing and Shenzhen, China Resources Land earned enough attention. In Beijing, it won the total amount of 11.886 billion yuan in Beijing's Fengtai Yalinxi plot for 7.47 billion yuan and 4.416 billion yuan, respectively.

In Shenzhen, China Resources Land and its consortia participated in the auction of 14 plots. In the end, four plots including Longhua Minzhi, Longgang Longcheng, Pingshan Ishii, and Guangming Phoenix were won at a total price of 11.877 billion yuan.

Faced with the light market and tightening financing channels, most real estate companies choose to be cautious even if they are steadily operating.

Taking Vanke as an example, although the chairman of Vanke's board of directors Yu Liang's prediction market has bottomed out, but in the land market, the investment has not been obvious. Among the centralized companies in Guangzhou and Shenzhen There are scratches; Goldland also stated in the recent announcement that it will increase the scale of investment and actively drop investment. A headquarters of a medium -sized private housing enterprise told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "There is no return on sales now. Although financing also has new credit given by banks, basically new investment is not very good, because in the second half of the year, we still still There are a few debts to be repaid, and now the company is now trying to reduce extra expenditures for this effort. "

A real estate analyst who did not want to be named in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that the current heating of sales is not obvious. "It can be in June, and it will go on in July. Most companies have some pressure. "

However, the reunion of this round of real estate market has also brought some low -key private enterprises to take the lead.

For example, in the concentrated land supply of Chengdu, 12 of the 53 land sold were won by private enterprises, and most of these private enterprises were not the names on the rankings we met before -for example Zhejiang Nan Sheng, Hongshan and Great Da.

The significant feature of this group of private enterprises is that most of them are regional deep -cultivated housing companies or relying on comprehensive industrial groups, generally not high -leverage companies.

This is also in line with the current market trend. Feng Jun, president of the China Real Estate Association at the "Boao · 21st Century Real Estate Forum 22nd Annual Meeting" this year, pointed out that the amount of real estate volume continued to rise in the "myth", so that the industry continued to implement the soil of high leverage. Enterprises must seek new development models on the basis of ensuring safety.

The above -mentioned real estate analysts also analyzed that there are two types of housing companies that can run out in the future. One is large enterprises with outstanding comprehensive capabilities such as funds and products and services. There are other industries that can complement each other to make it a housing company that can carefully polish products and services.

All in all, the new competition pattern has been formed, and the baptized real estate industry has also urgently needed models. As the third round of concentrated land supply is coming, you may see the new changes.

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