China urgently needs to build a new model of housing development

Current housing development model

Not only cannot solve the new main contradictions in the housing field

Its shortcomings also caused many problems in the housing market

At present, major changes in the fundamentals of the Chinese housing market have undergone major changes. The current model of housing development will not only solve the new main contradictions in the housing field, but also cause and derive many problems in the housing market. In order to fundamentally solve these problems and ensure the steady development of real estate and a virtuous circle, China urgently needs to build a new model of housing development.

From 1978 to 2020, the per capita residential area of ​​Chinese urban families increased from 7.8 square meters to 36.52 square meters. The housing development model gradually formed after the reform and opening up. The role. However, this development enterprise and residents mainly rely on external forces, high leverage, high debt, and high -turnover exogenous development models. The risks are increasingly exposed. The mortgage loan owner brought greater damage.

Unlike, a new model of housing development to be constructed. Development enterprises and resident departments need to rely on their own strength to achieve a moderate leverage ratio, reasonable debt ratio and normal turnover speed. Actions to achieve the stable and healthy cycle of the real estate market.

The new development model is a system, which needs to include at least the following sub -mode:

Establish a dual -track supply and demand model of "market belonging to the market and the government to the government". On the one hand, housing is a necessity of residents' daily life, and on the other hand, it is huge. It is difficult for many families to solve themselves through the market, and the government and society are required to assist or guarantee it. Even in developed market economy countries or regions, the proportion of housing security, including social housing, is generally about 50 %. Therefore, the establishment of the market -oriented demand for multi -level and the government provides the two housing systems with the main main guarantee, and improves and constructs a system of commodity and affordable housing in the urban circle unit to improve housing security. The coverage can not only inhibit the speculation, but also solve the difficulty of housing in "new citizens".

Establish a "existing housing sales, reasonable debt" real estate enterprise operation model. This can reduce the leverage and liabilities of real estate companies, ensure endogenous development, form a self -restraint mechanism for the development of real estate companies, gradually reduce industry risks, ensure real estate capital chain, industrial chain, and supply chain to achieve a virtuous circle, promote real estate enterprises around the market around the market Demand changes are constantly transformed and upgraded.

Establish a "equity financing, fund -led" housing financing model. Focusing on the endogenous development of housing, changing the financing model led by credit rights, especially the bank's credit, and established the financing model of equity financing, and improved the policy and commercial housing financial system. Compact the risk responsibility of relevant subjects, broaden their investment channels, decentralize real estate financial risks, expand the investment channels of the residential sector, and promote the cycle of real estate funds.

Establish a "hook and diversified supply" housing land model model. Change the administrative distribution of land index in the past and the exclusive supply system of the government government, establish a "human land hook" system in the national urban circle and between the urban circle, establish a diversified market supply system for land, and break the space mismatch of land supply and demand and the land market of the land market. Administrative monopoly.

Of course, the new and old development models need to be gradually switched on the basis of ensuring the stable market. The current downward settlement of the real estate market has indeed brought some challenges to the new and old switching, but there are also new model construction options that can promote the stable market. It should be the first to combine the "insurance delivery building" and the stable market to accelerate:

First, accelerate the implementation of the "green and new citizens" living project and improve the housing security system in the housing supply and demand system. Formulate preferential policies to motivate state -owned enterprises or high -quality private enterprises to acquire some projects for insurance enterprises for guaranteeing housing, common property houses or housing project property rights housing.

Second, formulate preferential policies to motivate small and medium -sized real estate companies from development to service transformation. At present, housing companies, especially small and medium -sized development enterprises, have a difficult survival, but housing derivative value -added services are a huge blue ocean. Relevant government departments should accelerate the formulation of relevant financial and tax policies, and encourage small and medium -sized housing companies to transform and develop, which can not only succeed in transformation, but also drive economic transformation and development.

Third, the market and the government joined hands to gradually complete the smooth switch between the sales of housing sales to the existing house. Although the sales of housing have played an important role in quickly solving the shortage of housing, it is also an important source of many risks and must be gradually eliminated. While supporting corporate mergers and acquisitions, reorganization and housing debt -to -equity swaps, the system of sales of existing housing is gradually established. First of all, it continues to improve the sales system of the housing housing, strictly pre -sale funds supervision systems, and explore the transition methods of the sales of the housing and the sales system of the existing housing. The second is to speed up the sales system for piloting the existing housing in some regions, and then promote it to gradually realize the sales from future housing to existing housing sales. Once again, the residents' departments are encouraged to buy existing houses and automatically eliminate the sales system.

Fourth, establish real estate bailout funds and guide housing financing models to develop towards the fund leading direction.On the basis of improving the housing provident fund system and model, and the experience of real estate REITs years of exploration and infrastructure REITs, it will accelerate the issuance of affordable and commercial rental housing investment trust funds.Accelerate the establishment of a housing bailout fund, and targeted the equity investment of housing enterprises and projects in danger or difficulties in order to maintain the property.At the same time, actively explore the establishment of a real estate guidance fund that the government guides the society to participate in the strategic mergers and acquisitions and asset reorganizations to resolve real estate risks.In addition, conditional areas can also speed up and improve the basic public service systems and improve the protection system of housing lessee protection systems.

(The author is the director of the City and Competitiveness Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Send 2022.8.8 Total Issue 1055 "China News Weekly" magazine

Magazine title: China urgently needs to build a new model of housing development

Author: Ni Pengfei

Operation editor: Xiao Ran

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