What should I do next?

Zhejiang News Client reporter Fang Zhenzi

At the end of 2010, Cao Zhounan took the lead in proposing the "construction" business model in the Chinese real estate industry, forming the first professional company -Greentown Real Estate Construction Management Company, and implementing business development on a large scale.

At the end of 2018, Cao Zhounan, who had just created the blue and green double cities, said: There is no quality growth in real estate companies.

At the end of 2019, Cao Zhounan said: The traditional investment logic of "getting high housing prices at high land prices" is no longer established, and the traditional scale competition of housing companies will be unsustainable.

At the end of 2020, Cao Zhounan said: "Three Red Line" is a fundamental change for the Chinese real estate industry.

At the end of 2021, Cao Zhounan said: Under the circumstances of decreased profits, developing enterprises must face tremendous pressure on continuous sales, project delivery, supplier payment, tax payment, customer complaints, and due debt repayment.

▲ Cao Zhounan, founder and chairman of the blue and green double city

Unfortunately, he said right.

"China's real estate is in trouble." This is the first sentence that Cao Zhounan said in an interview with reporters.

This is not alarmist. Evergrande explosion is one year away, but the head of private real estate companies is still in debt defaults, thunder, lying flat ... Chinese real estate, what should I do next?

This time, Cao Zhounan had any new judgment on the current real estate industry?

No snowflake is innocent

There is no snowflake during the avalanche.

Regarding the dilemma facing the entire industry at the moment, Cao Zhounan bluntly stated: urban managers, housing companies, financial institutions, suppliers, customers and other related parties have formed a complex situation of "everyone is right, everyone has the wrong", and Each side is a victim.

For local governments, land transfer gold is still an important source of fiscal revenue. However, from January to June this year, the land purchase area of ​​the country was 36.28 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 48.3%, and the land transaction price was 204.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.3%. At the same time, maintaining traffic and people's livelihood also prompted the government to take stricter supervision of real estate development enterprises.

For financial institutions, the list of listing systems and "only theory of standardization" was implemented, and rigorous professional demonstrations were lacked before investing. Now, financial institutions that provide a large amount of funds for real estate must pay for "willful".

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics

For enterprises, especially private housing enterprises, the "three highs" development model of high debt, high leverage, and high turnover in the past is also caused by many external factors. For example, creditor's rights and equity investors depend on scale, and financial institutions depends on scale.

At present, once the debt defaults, the local government has stricter supervision, the bank's suspension of loan lending, and the damage to the company's brand's reputation, resulting in poor sales, the financial resources can be reduced sharply, and a vicious circle can be formed.

At the same time, rigid expenditures such as bank repayment, engineering costs, and employee salary, coupled with huge financial costs that must be paid each year, will also make the income and expenditure gap getting larger and larger. "If the market continues to decline and the asset depreciates, it will be easy to 'not debt." He said.

For the suppliers, the project funds have been dragged up sharply. Some construction units and a large number of cooperation between the real estate companies have caused their own capital chain to break and the project stagnation.

The poorest is also the buyer. Some people watched the houses purchased by the second or third generations, extended their houses or could not hand over their houses. In addition, this year's macroeconomic shocks and the real estate industry crisis, the market watched and worse.

Data show that from January to June, the sales area of ​​commercial housing was 689.23 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.2%; of which, the residential sales area fell by 26.6%, and residential sales fell by 31.8%.

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics

Regarding this "very state", Cao Zhounan was deeply worried: "This is a systematic problem."

Inspection of diplomatic relations is the first priority

China real estate, what should I do next?

The Central Political Bureau meeting held on July 28 proposed to stabilize the real estate market and emphasize "keeping interactive buildings and stabilizing people's livelihood".

"The suspension of work will be resumed as soon as possible, and the preservation of diplomatic relations is the first priority." Cao Zhounan said that the protection of the insurance building is not only the responsibility of the government, but the private real estate enterprises should also actively participate in it.

In this regard, the blue and green cities are in practice: the "variable project" is activated with real estate bailout funds to achieve high -quality protection buildings.

He used a neutral word -variable project for the stoppage project or "bad tail building".

The specific plan is: the variable project of explosive housing companies from the "bailout funds" of Blue and Green Two Cities to achieve resumption of work and re -production. Wait, finally realize the project activation.

At the same time, the explosive housing companies involved in the equity and debt levels were clearly cleared at the level of equity and claims, and the realization of part of the realization was exited.

The key step of activation is to establish a bailout fund.

"The current dilemma of private housing companies is mainly due to debt defaults (repayment of overseas debt repayment, domestic bill payment, etc.) and limited liquidity." Effectively leverage the "key" of the entire market space.

The bailout fund is also the "hot search" of the current real estate industry. Recently, it has been reported that China will establish a rotten tail building from 200 billion to 300 billion yuan to support many exit companies including Evergrande Group and resolve serious debt crisis.

However, the outside world's attention to the bailout fund is more about the government's shot, and few practitioners at the corporate level. After all, a large number of private housing companies are not guaranteed by themselves. However, for the blue and green cities that have taken the lead in entering the new real estate development model in recent years, the bailout fund has been arrowed on the string. "The first 1.8 billion yuan bailout fund has been approved." Cao Zhounan told reporters that the second and third bailout funds are also promoting the landing process.

He also suggested that local governments establish government bailout funds according to the situation of the city as soon as possible. "Local governments can negotiate and agreed with financial institutions or state -owned enterprises such as financial institutions or central enterprises such as financial institutions or central enterprises. Local state -owned enterprises, with the support of bailout funds, take over the projects of mines. Appropriate price collection and storage land and projects. "

"Mainly government funds, supplemented by corporate funds like us, promote the solution of industry and corporate problems." Cao Zhounan said.

In addition to the transfusion of the variable projects lying in the "ICU", the blue and green cities will also restore their blood -making ability.

For example, Blue and Green City will provide new brands for the project. At the same time, spend strongly to optimize products and improve the quality of building and service, so that buyers regain confidence in the product, and then accelerate sales. Inspection of the building.

In response to the quality and defects of the current "insurance delivery building" project, he said: "It is necessary to protect the building with quality and be worthy of the people's sweaty money."

▲ The Lake Yinshan project activated in Hangzhou in Hangzhou

The industry enters the adjustment period, and the "variable project" is the opportunity to find opportunities. "Some high -quality variable projects may only cost tens of millions of funds." Cao Zhounan revealed.

However, activating a variable project is not so easy, the work volume is large, the structure is complicated, the surface is wide, and the process is longer.

To this end, more than 60 "co-construction divisions" groups were established in the blue and green double cities, each group of 6-8 people, covering finance, finance, legal affairs, marketing, engineering, cost and other majors. "The company's internal division has also been adjusted. Now I will catch it myself in the early stage, and every project must be judged." He said.

It is reported that in the first half of this year, the Blue and Green Two City signed a new contract with more than 10 high -quality variable projects in key cities such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Tianjin, and Jinan. There are currently more than 100 variable projects, which are in the process of signing.

It is expected to stabilize recovery next June and July

When the real estate stabilizes is a key variable in the current overall economic situation of China.

In Cao Zhounan's view, recently, the "policy bottom" of real estate has appeared, but the inflection point of the industry is far from arrival.

"From January to June this year, more than 200 cities have relaxed the real estate regulation policy of more than 500 frequencies from the downgraded payment ratio, increased their talents, issued house purchase subsidies, and increased the amount of provident fund loans." His judgment on industry policies is : Based on the premise of "housing and not frying", the real estate regulation policy "due to the end" forms a relaxation tide of demand.

Next, the adjustment policy will still adhere to the "policy of the city": the four first -tier cities in the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, are still unlikely to relax; strong second -tier cities such as Hangzhou and Nanjing will introduce some policies, but the intensity will not be too great; Policies are mainly concentrated in weak second -tier cities, third -tier, and fourth -tier cities.

"But even if the policies should be done, the market effects have not been formed, and the market downstream continues." Cao Zhounan judged.

So when will the market come?

"Our judgment is that we will continue to visit before October this year. It may be stable from November to the end of the year. It is expected to recover in June and July next year." Cao Zhounan replied.

He is still confident in the future of China's real estate. However, he also believes that the real estate industry must learn from the manufacturing industry in the future.

Last year, Cao Zhounan said, "The strategic goal of the blue and green cities is to become China's first 'Iron Lion Gate'."

(Iron Lion Gate, Tishman Speyer, founded in 1978, is a world -class real estate developer, operator and fund management company. Its iconic buildings include the Rockefeller Center, Chrysler Center, Sony Center in Berlin.).).).).

"This goal has not changed." Cao Zhounan said that the return of housing to residential attributes and real estate returned to the manufacturing industry. Blue and green cities must rely on their professional knowledge and skills in various fields of real estate to become the "Iron Lion Gate" in the later period of urbanization in China. Urban service providers with the same weight.

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