Important signals in the property market have come here!The days of private developers are not good

Author: 圭 作 作 (six soils)

The top 100 real estate companies gave an important signal in the real estate market in July. Have you seen it?

The sales amount of the top 100 housing companies across the country in July was-39.6%, a narrowing of 3 percentage points from June. The growth rate of state-owned enterprises was -9%, local state-owned enterprises growth rate was -25%, and private enterprises growth rates of -53%were further expanded.

01

The market performance is weak

According to Kerry data, the TOP100 real estate company's July monthly performance scale decreased by 28.6%month -on -month, and the decrease was basically the same as that of about 30%in previous years. The year-on-year decrease of the total sales trading amount from the top 100 housing companies still maintained at a high level of 49%.

After the short -term recovery in May and June in July and June, the difficulty of completing the annual performance of real estate companies increased.

Mainly in July, it has always been off -season in sales. After the market has experienced the sprint results in May and June, the housing companies have weakened their willingness to increase supply in July, and market demand and purchasing power have also declined.

Due to the adjustment of the preliminary policy adjustment and the active push marketing of housing companies, the transactions in June were relatively significantly improved, but the well -known industry incidents in July have greatly impacted market confidence.

In March of this year, Zhengzhou's great efforts to rescue the market as the bottom of the policy, to the national commercial housing sales area, which may take more than three quarters year -on -year. The last two real estate markets experienced five months in 2008. In 2014, it experienced three quarters. Multiple factors are superimposed, only time is longer.

This round of real estate recovery is slower, the trend of market fluctuations is more complicated, and the time from policy to the bottom of the market will be longer.

What's more important is that the biggest impact on the incident is the weak private developer.

02

Capital enterprises are becoming more difficult

Most private enterprises have lost the function of issuing debt financing in the open market.

In the first four months of this year, developers issued 150.133 billion yuan in domestic debt, of which central enterprises and local state -owned enterprises accounted for 91.80%of the issuance and net financing of 58.499 billion yuan, while more private developers only issued 12.31 billion yuan in debt.

Private enterprise financing has continued to clean out since October 2020. The national real estate incidents that have occurred have caused many banks to shrink the loan or credit business of private housing companies, which has further led to the continuous increase in sales and financing of private enterprise developers.

In terms of the weight of the issuance scale, the debt issuance of private enterprises is limited and costs higher. In the first half of the year, a small number of state -owned enterprises and state -owned enterprises, such as Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou and China Resources Land, were less than 3%. In contrast, the financing costs of Xincheng Holdings and Jinke shares exceeded 6%during the same period. At the scale of financing, some real estate companies pay nearly double the dividend and financial expenses than central enterprises.

The loose financing policy in the second half of the year will continue, and the financing advantages of national and central enterprises and high -quality private enterprises will continue to enlarge and accelerate industry differentiation.

The more difficult for sales and financing makes the capital chain of private enterprises more tense, and the possibility of land acquisition has become extremely slim. Judging from the second concentrated land this year, private enterprises have basically disappeared.

Since the occurrence of national incidents, the crackdown on the confidence of home buyers is obviously difficult to reverse in the short term. Buyers have a worse willingness to buy houses in private enterprises and turn to central state -owned enterprise houses with credit endorsing, making it more difficult for private enterprises to sell.

From the perspective of new housing transactions, the conversion rate of new houses in private enterprises has declined, and the latest week conversion rate of 30 key cities involving national incidents has dropped to 19%. This means that buyers are becoming more and more cautious in new houses in private enterprises.

Buyers who dare not buy a house with caution, private enterprises are more cautious and dare not get land.

In the first half of this year's land acquisition, only 9 of the 40 real estate companies were private enterprises, namely Binjiang Group, Longhu Group, Zhujiang Investment, Weixing Real Estate, Country Garden, Xinwang Real Estate, Dahua Group, Jindi Group, and Jijia Development Development Development Development Development The Zhongan Group, and the remaining 31 land acquisition companies are central state -owned enterprises or mixed ownership enterprises or urban investment companies.

This also means that the concentration of state -owned enterprises will be further improved in the future.

03

Metropolitan enterprise and state -owned enterprise

In this context, the advantages of state -owned enterprises and high -credit and private enterprises have continued. In the first half of this year, the sales of housing enterprises have been significantly differentiated, and the sales of state -owned assets and hybrid housing enterprises are significantly better than private enterprises.

Among TOP50 sales companies, the cumulative equity sales amount of state -owned real estate companies in the first half of the year was 726 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 34%, and the cumulative equity sales amount of mixed housing companies in the first half of the year was 335.3 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 43%, while private real estate companies cumulative in the first half of the year The sales amount of equity was 950.8 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 58%.

In fact, mixed housing companies have endorsed state -owned assets. Compared with private enterprises, sales will be guaranteed to a large extent.

Among TOP50 housing companies, the cumulative sales amount of state -owned enterprises and state -owned enterprises was 1061.3 billion yuan, accounting for 53%, a year -on -year decrease of 37%, while the cumulative equity sales amount of private enterprises was 95.8 billion yuan, accounting for 47%, a year -on -year decrease of 58%.

From January to July, the cumulative sales of Yuexiu Real Estate, Ocean Group, Huafa, and China Resources Land at the forefront of the state-owned enterprise background at the forefront of the mainstream real estate companies.

04

Future market changes

With the rapid concentration of sales, financing, and land acquisition to the central state -owned enterprises, the real estate market will show the majority of markets and mixed enterprises in the future. pattern. The real estate industry will gradually become the world of the background of central enterprises, state -owned enterprises, and government platforms, and private enterprises will gradually withdraw from the real estate development market. Most private enterprises will become enterprises of agency construction categories. In the capital construction of the financial party in affordable leased housing, cooperate with the financial parties of the bad tail building, the commercial construction of real estate companies with investment promotion and operation capabilities Development of agencies and other aspects. Some will also develop in the direction of property management services and commercial operation services in the industrial park.

The state -owned enterprises and state -owned enterprises will generally become the attributes of "public utilities". They will make money by refined management, and the era of profit -making by selling houses will always end.

Of course, there are some other possibilities with some small probability, just like there have been completely opposite views in history. It is prevalent. Because the reform of the state -owned assets management system at that time, "state -owned enterprises no longer participate in commercial housing development in principle."

Policies that determine the future industrial structure.

05

Enlightenment

What impact will the real estate industry have such profound changes that will bring us every buyer? What do we do in the future to ensure our own interests, and even continue to preserve value and appreciation is what everyone cares about.

It can be said that the future real estate will change from the current land -level monopoly to the second -level monopoly developed through the "state -owned enterprise leading market", that is, the new house market can also monopolize.

Then the main characteristics of the monopoly market will appear in the new house market:

1. The market competition is further reduced, especially the price competition will be more "orderly". You can refer to the gasoline and diesel market.

2. The market pricing area is more gentle, and the rise and fall of first -hand houses will be changed from "market -led" to "dominant market".

3. Developers have stronger anti -risk capabilities, and the willingness to reduce prices in the market cold stage is greatly reduced. If you want to buy bamboo shoots in the first -hand house, it will change from the discount mode to the "lottery" mode generated by the limited price.

4. The market supply becomes more controllable, and its scarcity market capacity is getting stronger and stronger, and the decline in the property market has increased, especially in large cities.

5. Insufficient product competition power, more and more homogeneous, and increase marketing competition.

6. The regulatory policy can be better executed.

7. Rotten tail buildings will gradually decrease, and market risks will decrease.

8. The various types of violations in the market will decrease, and the risks such as stealing area and illegal names will be reduced.

9. Increased financial attributes for land -to -land enterprises to get land.

10. "Land empty turnover", land finance may change or even reform, land acquisition is to meet the needs of local governments.

11. In the future, the brand effect will be weakened, product differences will be weakened, and the role of the location will become stronger.

12. Affected by the first -hand housing market, the activity of the second -hand housing market will be reduced.

13. Comprehensive institutionalization of the real estate industry, there will be only two types of real estate companies in the future, one is state -owned enterprise and the other is state -owned enterprise.

In a word, the end of the soil auction is state -owned enterprise, and the end of the real estate is state -owned enterprise!

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