13 City second -hand housing guidance policy is loose, what signal?In many places, second -hand housing transactions have recovered.

Since Shenzhen took the lead in launching second -hand housing guidance in February last year, a total of 15 cities in the country issued second -hand housing guidance prices, but at present, this policy has been loosened in many places. According to the statistics of the Kerry Research Center, 13 cities have canceled or relaxed the second -hand housing guidance policy.

In July, the transaction volume of second -hand housing such as Guangzhou, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Chengdu had reflected the loosening effect of the policy, and the year -on -year increased significantly. Among them, the transaction volume of second -hand housing in Chengdu has reached a new high for nearly 10 years.

Industry insiders believe that the loosening of second -hand housing guidance policies is that the greater significance is to convey the signal to activate second -hand housing fluidity to the market, thereby driving more city market expectations and restoration of home confidence. Help. It is expected that in the next period of time, the second -hand housing market will still maintain a strong recovery momentum, and the second -hand housing market of the core city may be warmed first in the new house.

13 cities second -hand housing guidance price policy loose

According to the statistics of the Kerry Research Center, since February last year, Shenzhen took the lead in launching a second -hand housing guidance price. As of the end of 2021, a total of 15 cities in the country had established a second -hand housing guidance release mechanism. At the beginning of July this year, after the first "official announcement" of Xi'an suspended the release of second -hand housing guidance, as of now, in addition to Shanghai and Shenzhen, 13 cities have canceled or relax this policy. These 13 cities include: Xi'an, Chengdu, Ningbo, Shaoxing, Sanya, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Jinhua, Wenzhou, Hefei, Luzhou, Beijing and Wuxi.

In early July, in response to whether the reference price of the second -hand housing trading of Xi'an has been canceled, the relevant staff of the Xi'an Housing and Construction Bureau responded to the media that in order to support rigid and improved housing demand and promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry. Xi'an issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Trading Policy of Commodity Housing Trading", which mentioned the promotion of second -hand housing circulation. At present, the reference price is suspended. Some intermediary platforms can respect the price of second -hand housing when the price of second -hand housing shows the price of the seller's wishes.

At the end of March, in response to the rumors of the reference price of second -hand housing in Shenzhen, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Urban Construction Bureau stated: "The release of the reference price of second -hand housing transactions is to implement the work arrangement of Shenzhen real estate regulation. The notice of second -hand housing transaction reference price release mechanism "requires regular release. We will make corresponding adjustments to the price in a timely manner depending on the regulation requirements and the market situation, and recently released on the official website of the Shenzhen Housing and Urban Construction Bureau, WeChat public account and other official network platforms. ","

After investigating the Kerry Research Center, the current implementation situation was obviously different. For example, the loosening of Chengdu and Ningbo is mainly manifested in re -listed high -priced housing, and bank loans are no longer strictly referred to the guidance price; the price of listed housing listed in Guangzhou and Dongguan is limited by the guidance price, but the actual transaction and bank lending have basically been basically not subject to the guidance price influences. There are also some urban second -hand housing guidance prices "fame and death". For example, Beijing and Wuxi have a high guidance price, and many project guidance prices are even higher than the owner's listing price of 10,000 yuan/square meter; Details.

The so -called second -hand housing guidance system is to control the price of second -hand housing by giving the reference price of second -hand housing transactions in the community. Regardless of the actual transaction price of the house, the bank can only calculate the amount of second -hand housing loan in accordance with the upper limit of the second -hand housing. After the implementation of the guidance policy of second -hand housing in many places, the scale of second -hand housing transactions decreased sharply, and the price fell.

Taking Shenzhen and Shanghai as an example, since the guidance price of second -hand housing is promoted, the second -hand housing market has been obviously cold. According to data from Shenzhen Real Estate Information Platform, in February this year (the first anniversary of the guidance price of second -hand housing), Shenzhen second -hand residential transactions were sold for 872 units, a year -on -year decrease of 76.53%. The monthly transaction volume fell below a thousand units for the first time, a new low of 15 years. According to the statistics of the Kerry Research Center, in July last year, Shanghai began to implement a listing price verification. The number of second -hand housing transactions in the month was less than 24,000, a decrease of 16%month -on -month. So far, the number of second -hand housing transactions in Shanghai has declined for 12 consecutive months, and less than 15,000 units in a consecutive month.

The transaction volume reflects the loosening effect of the loosening effect

"In the past, the guidance price of second -hand housing was directly linked to the credit quota and liquidity expectations to weaken the buyer's payment ability and home confidence, so as to adjust the volume, price, and the transaction structure." Ding Zuyu said that the guidance price of second -hand housing is tied, which is the greater significance to convey the signal to activate the flow of second -hand housing to the market, thereby driving more urban market expectations and the repair of home confidence. To a certain extent, it becomes the help of the recovery of the second -hand housing market. Push. The scale of second -hand housing in Guangzhou, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Chengdu has reflected the impact of loosening effects, and the market has gradually stepped out of the bottom to quickly recover.

According to the data of the Kerry Research Center, from the perspective of the weekly transaction data, the 29th week of Suzhou (7.11-7.17) and the 30th (7.18-7.24) second-hand housing transaction area increased by 61%and 36%year-on-year; The Foshan second -hand housing market has gradually stabilized. On the 29th, the transaction area of ​​hand houses fell slightly slightly by 7%year -on -year, while Foshan increased by 8%year -on -year.

It is worth noting that the 14 hot cities monitored by the Shanghai E -House Real Estate Research Institute in July in July, the transaction volume of second -hand housing was about 72,000 units, a decrease of 5.5%month -on -month, and a slight increase of 2.3%after a year -on -year decrease of 13 months. Among them, the transaction volume of second -hand housing in Chengdu exceeded 17,000 units, setting the highest record since January 2012. Pan Yanyu, a researcher at the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the main reason for the rising transaction volume of second -hand housing in Chengdu is the recovery of the confidence in buying a house for major favorable policies. Among them, the relaxation of second -hand housing guidance prices is one of the favorable policies.

According to the statistics of the Shell Research Institute, the transaction index of the second -hand housing of the shell 50 cities in July was 40, which was slightly rising from the previous month. Compared with the 39 last year last year, it was the first time since May last year that exceeded the same period last year. Among them, nearly 50 % of the cities such as Dongguan, Langfang, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and other cities have grown over 60 % of the cities such as Ningbo, Taiyuan, Zhengzhou, Nanjing, and Suzhou.

Regarding the future market trend, Ding Zuyu believes that based on the linkage effect of first -hand housing, the liquidity of second -hand housing is the first to repair, and the needs of new houses such as new houses can be fully released. It is expected that in the future, the second -hand housing market will still maintain a strong recovery momentum. The second -hand housing market of the core city may be warmed first in the new house. With the increase of liquidity and activity in the second -hand housing market, confidence in the new house market will also have a positive and positive effect.

Chen Wenjing, director of market research director of the Index Division of the Medium Finger Research Institute, said that the national real estate market is still in the adjustment period, and the overall recovery of the industry still takes time. It is expected that more places will issue innovative policies in the short term to release more real estate needs.

Responsible editor: Wang Shidan | Audit: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei

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