Renovation!How to get in the property market in the second half of the year, there is a direction!

The property market is set in the second half of the year!

The Central Political Bureau meeting recently pointed out: It is necessary to stabilize the real estate market, adhere to the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation, because the city's policy uses a good policy tool box to support rigid and improved housing needs, compact compacking Local government responsibilities, keeping over the building, and stabilizing the people's livelihood.

In just a few crosses, the relevant work priorities in the real estate field in the second half of the year are determined. Moreover, a number of puppets appeared at the Central Political Bureau meeting for the first time to release important signals. This meeting clarified the four key directions of the property market in the second half of the year.

The first mention of the "Insurance Tower"

The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized for the first time emphasizing the "insurance delivery building." Many industry experts believe that this is the key to the recovery of confidence in the property market.

Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban -Rural Development, believes that the "insured property" appeared at an important central meeting for the first time, and also proved that the second half of the year will occupy the first place in real estate management. This highlights the starting point of the country's management of the real estate industry, first of all, people's livelihood guarantee.

For more than a month, the real estate "suspension" storm has been exposed in many places. Chen Wenjing, director of market research director of the Index Division of the Medium Finger Research Institute, pointed out that at present, the problem of "guarantee of the property" needs to be resolved urgently. Only when the "guarantee of the property" is promoted as scheduled, the property market confidence and expectations continue to improve, and the real estate market in the second half of the year can recover stably in the second half of the year. Essence She predicts that the relevant "insured buildings" measures and supporting funds will be accelerated.

Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, said that the guarantee of the friendship is related to the stability of the people's livelihood. To ensure that the project is substantially resumed, the confidence of the owner of the house is the key. The document writing of the Political Bureau of the Central Politburo has a strong instructions and targeted documents, which can boost market expectations. It is worth noting that in the previous week, the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission has repeatedly stated that more than 10 cities also have the relevant direction measures of insurance delivery buildings. It is expected that there will be further clear solutions in more places in the second half of the year to ensure the repair of the new housing market.

Pre -front "Stable Real Estate Market"

This meeting puts the "stabilizing real estate market" at the forefront of the relevant statement of the property market. The industry believes that this means that stabilizing the real estate market is the top priority of regulatory work in the second half of the year.

Since the beginning of this year, despite the frequent policy of stabilizing the property market in various places, the various indicators of real estate are still at a historical low. According to institutional statistics, since January 2022, more than 210 provinces and cities across the country have relaxed real estate regulation policies from the aspects of downgraded payment, increased their talents, and issuing house purchase subsidies. The policy introductions exceeded 550 times. According to institutional statistics, the scale of new commercial housing transactions in the key 100 cities is the lowest level in the same period in recent years, a decrease of about 40 % year -on -year.

Xu Gao, assistant to BOC International Securities, believes that the main source of domestic demand in my country is the real estate industry. In particular, the growth rate of real estate investment entered the downward channel in the second half of 2021, and has not changed significantly.

The real estate industry has a large volume and long industrial chain, which can drive more than 50 industries upstream and downstream. The steady development of real estate and the virtuous cycle are related to economic development and social stability. Wang Xiaoyu, chief analyst of Zhuge Finding Data Research Center, said that in the past, important meetings often put "houses and not frying" in the first sentence, but this time, the signal meaning is self -evident.

Yan Yuejin, the research director of the Think Tank Center of the E -House Research Institute, also believes that the unstable factors of the property market include weak market transactions, suspension of lending storms, and still greater risk of debt in real estate companies. Therefore, the statement of stabilizing the real estate market means that the stable real estate should be used as the core goal and working direction for half a year, that is, to eliminate the factors that affect the stability of real estate and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.

"Use enough policy tool box"

How to stabilize the real estate market, keep interactive buildings, and stabilize people's livelihood? This meeting clearly clearly uses a good policy box.

Wang Xiaoyu said that the saying "using a good policy tool box" was also the first time that it was proposed at the Central Political Bureau meeting, which means that the governments in the second half of the year should introduce effective policies in accordance with the actual situation of the local area to accelerate the stability of the real estate market.

What are the tools in the policy toolbox? Liu Lijie believes that the policy toolbox will include both demand -side support policies. In addition to reducing the threshold for buying housing purchase, reducing the cost of buying houses and reducing the cost of buying houses, tax subsidies, housing subsidies, and consumer vouchers to promote housing consumption. Large space; in the later period, it will focus on the policy support on the supply side, such as the optimization of pre -sale funds supervision, and the policy of mission of real estate enterprises.

In terms of insurance, Li Yujia said that possible measures are: raising funds or issuing special bonds, acquiring the project projects as guarantee housing, corporate bankruptcy reorganization, and collection and purchase activity. However, he pointed out that these schemes or tools are not yet mature to apply. The localities must explore and promote their own use, and promote the "one set and one strategy". Can not wait for national assistance and currency water to solve the problem.

It is worth noting that this meeting emphasized that the responsibilities of local governments were compacted. Yan Yuejin said that how the "guarantee of diplomatic relations" was carried out and who implemented it was relatively clear. It is roughly included in the local party committee and government, and financial institutions such as commercial banks are closely cooperating. Housing and other companies are actively participating in resumption. It is not ruled out that the central and various financial departments such as policy banks in the second half of the year will be launched in a new round of insurance policy. It will be positive progress.

"Following the house and not frying" is the bottom line

This meeting still emphasizes "not frying in the house".Liu Lijie believes that in the context of weak current market expectations, it is expected that local support policies in the second half of the year will still be further increased, but "housing does not stir -fry" is still the bottom line.Rigid and improving housing demand is the object of support.From the perspective of the market trend, according to the statistics of the China Finger Research Institute, the market activity of key cities in July has declined from June.The transaction area of key cities decreased by more than 13%month -on -month and a year -on -year decrease of about 27%.

Chen Wenjing believes that in the second half of the year, demand -side policies will continue to improve.Among them, policies such as restrictions on purchase, loan restrictions, and sales restrictions in second -tier cities may be further optimized. In particular, relaxation of the policy of "recognition of housing and loan" will help improve the release of sex housing demand, and more administrative restrictions in third- and fourth -tier cities willIt is expected to be canceled in an all -round way.

However, the "policy of the city" is still the main way to advance the policy. The policy will not turn around, and once the hot city market is overheating, there will still be corresponding tightening measures.

- END -