[Caizhi Headline] The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee first mentioned the "Inspection of the Building". How to get the property market in the second half of the year?

The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 28 to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy economic work in the second half of the year. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to stabilize the real estate market, adhere to the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation, because the city has used a good policy box to support rigid and improved housing demand, compact local government responsibilities, guarantee payment Lou, stabilize people's livelihood.

For the recent real estate market, this statement is of great significance.

The content

Affected by various factors, the real estate market has fluctuated since this year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of this year, national real estate development investment decreased by 5.4%year -on -year, and three consecutive months decreased; the sales area of ​​commercial housing decreased by 22.2%year -on -year, and the sales of commercial housing fell by 28.9%; Essence

At the same time, due to the tension of cash flow in some real estate companies, some real estate projects were suspended. This not only affects the goal of the "guarantee building" set in various places, but also fluctuates the mentality of some owners. For the past month's rotten real estate "suspend loan" storm, this meeting is very targeted: compacting the responsibilities of local governments, maintaining intersection, and stabilizing people's livelihood.

"The focus of stabilizing real estate has begun to change, and from the previous risks and stable markets to stabilize markets, risk prevention and stability." Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Rules Institute, pointed out that For the first time in the Central Political Bureau meeting, the trigger factor is hidden dangers in the field of people's livelihood security spreading from real estate companies to downstream.

Industry analysts pointed out that the guidance of the Politburo Conference on the real estate market was placed under the entry of "keeping the security bottom line in all directions", indicating that the regulatory authorities attached great importance to the "stable property market". Among them, the "Insurance Communications" was written into the Central Political Bureau meeting for the first time, indicating that this move has become the key to the stabilization market.

Yan Yuejin, the research director of the Think Tank Center of the E -House Research Institute, believes that the current contradiction in the real estate market is that there have been unstable factor. This unstable factor includes weak market transactions, the emergence of suspension of loan storms, and still greater risk of debt in housing enterprises. Essence Therefore, the statement of stabilizing the real estate market has very strong guiding significance. In the past half of each year, stable real estate should be used as the core goal, eliminating factors affecting the stability of real estate, and promoting the healthy development of the real estate market.

In the previous week, the China Banking Regulatory Commission stated three times, and more than 10 cities issued policy measures related to insurance diplomatic relations. On the 25th, the China Banking Regulatory Commission held a full system for mid -2022 work symposium and disciplinary inspection and supervision (TV telephone) symposium pointed out that supporting localities to do a good job of "insurance delivery" and promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.

According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of July, the regulatory markets issued by supervisory departments at all levels have exceeded 500 times this year. Whether the guarantee of the supply side or the support of the demand side, the intensity cannot be ignored. Judging from the market performance since June, the market in some regions has stabilized, but the current popularity is still less than the same time in recent years.

"Stabilizing the real estate market" is the head, "housing does not stir -fry" unchanged

Since the positioning of "Housing and Living State" has been proposed in 2016, this meeting continues to clarify the positioning of "housing does not speculate".

Compared with the "730 Politburo Conference" in 2021, the conference puts the "stable real estate market" before "housing does not stir -fry", and industry insiders believe that this is relatively rare. Two weeks ago, the "keeping diplomatic relations, protecting people's livelihood, and stability" mentioned by the Banking Regulatory Commission was also reflected in this meeting.

Source: Surging News

Yan Yuejin believes that this fully shows that the current contradiction in the real estate market is that there have been unstable factor. Therefore, the statement of stabilizing the real estate market has a strong guiding significance.

"In the first half of the year, although local policies continued to loosen, from the perspective of market transaction data, it was still less than the same period last year. The residents' purchase of houses was strong. Wang Xiaoyu, chief analyst of Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, believes that the Politburo Conference listed the "stabilizing real estate market" first, releasing a more positive signal for the industry.

Listing the "stable real estate market" before "housing does not fry", it does not mean that the total tone of "housing does not fry" has shaken. Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, said that the positioning of "housing does not stir -fry" is unwavering. In the context of the current market expectation, the local support policy is expected to be further increased in the second half of the year, but the bottom line is still "no housing and not frying." Liu Lijie also mentioned that since the second quarter, the market has a good signs of bottom repair. Rhythm. "The stable development of real estate and the virtuous cycle are related to economic development and social stability, so the stabilization market is the top priority."

Continue to support rigid demand and improve housing needs

The meeting pointed out that it supports rigid and improved housing needs. The industry generally believes that the support for improvement of improvement will be increased, which is also related to the problem of using the policy of policy tool boxes for urban strategies.

"The key to promoting the preservation of intersections and stabilizing the people's livelihood is to compact the main responsibility of the local government. As for how the responsibility should be compacted, the way is to use a good policy tool box." Li Yujia believes that under the framework of "one city, one policy", The effect of compacting responsibilities in various local governments still needs to be improved. Chen Wenjing, director of market research director of the Index Division of the Medium Finger Research Institute, pointed out that the current real estate market still faces more unstable factors. The optimization and adjustment of short -term real estate policies is still expected to increase. Policies at both ends of the supply and demand have space. Release the demand.

Wang Xiaoyu believes that in April this year, the Central Political Bureau meeting had proposed to support rigid and improved demand. This meeting continued to propose that rigidity and improvement in the short term are still the main object of policy support.

58 Zhang Bo, president of the Sub -Laboratory of Anju House Real Estate Research Institute, emphasized that it is expected that the future demand for improvement will increase. From the perspective of the policy toolbox, there is a certain policy space in different cities for the adjustment of the down payment adjustment, the adjustment interest rate adjustment of the mortgage rate, and the optimization of purchase restrictions on the demand. It is expected that further release will be released in the second half of the year.

Liu Lijie believes that the policy toolbox will include both demand -side support policies. In addition to reducing the threshold for purchase, restrictions on purchase, loan restrictions, and sales restrictions, reducing the cost of buying houses, tax subsidies, housing subsidies, and consumer vouchers to promote housing consumption also have the intensity of promoting housing consumption. Increased space; later, it will focus on the policy support on the supply side, such as the optimization of pre -sale funds supervision, and the policy of mission of real estate enterprises.

(WeChat public account "Caizhi Headline" comprehensive from: China News Network, China Economic Network, Surging News, Daily Economic News, etc.)

Edit: Yuan Kai

School pair: Fenghua

Review: Gong Zimo

- END -