The housing price of this coastal city can't be sold for 12 years?

Once the prosperous scene

Has been replaced by a large number of rotten tail buildings and vacant rooms

"There are many rotten tail buildings and vacant houses, but no one is looking at the house." Zhou Ming, who was engaged in the real estate agency business in Fangchenggang, told China News Weekly that he has not opened this year and has considered transferring. Let's talk about this. "

Fangchenggang, a coastal city in south of Guangxi, was once a hot land for real estate speculators. Zhou Ming still remembers the grand occasion of Fangchenggang in 2018: At the end of April that year, Hainan released the most strict property market regulatory policy "global purchase restriction". After that, the Fangchenggang property market was like a "strong heart", just dozens of dozens of dozens of dozens of dozens of dozens of dozens of dozens of dozens of dozens of dozens of dozens. Daily, house prices soared, from the average price of 45,000 yuan a square meter to 9,000 yuan per square meter.

"Yesterday in Shenzhen is the Fangchenggang today, and today in Shenzhen is the future of Fangchenggang." The once exaggerated marketing advertisement stimulated one after another crowd to snap up, setting off the almost cut house prices and cliff -style foil of Fangchenggang. Sales of declines are particularly ironic.

According to the Baicheng Inventory monthly report issued by Ke Rui, as of May 20, the commercial housing exfoliation cycle of Fangchenggang City, Guangxi was as high as 152 months. In this way, in the case of no longer building a new house, it takes 12 years and 7 months after selling the inventory.

Fangchenggang has become the longest cities in the national commercial housing cycle.

Once the property market mythology

Fangchenggang is like a roller coaster property market. At the beginning of the rise in house prices, it was not purely "mirage".

Fangchenggang is connected to the land and sea from all over ASEAN countries. It is the most convenient portal of China's inland hinterland entering ASEAN countries. With the acceleration of the construction of the China -ASEAN Free Trade Zone, the cooperation and development of the Pan Beibu Gulf regional economy, and the open development of the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, the location advantage here has continued to increase.

Fangchenggang Dongxing City Landscape Aviation. Figure/Figure insect creativity

In 2018, Hainan's global purchase restrictions have brought new opportunities for development here. Overnight, a large number of real estate agencies, channel sales, and speculators turned their attention to small cities such as Guangxi, and Fangchenggang, which are across the sea.

Compared to the house prices of tens of thousands of square meters at that time, the Fangcheng Port at that time was only 4,500 square meters, which seemed to be more satisfied with some people's "sea dreams".

In that year, the State Council also approved the establishment of the Guangxi Fangchenggang Border Tourism Zone.

Wu Ning, the founder of Guangxi Lishu Science and Technology and senior real estate researchers, told China News Weekly that under the stimulus of a series of favorable factors, the 2018 Fangcheng Port property market was quite hot. The price rises.

According to data from Guoxin Real Estate Information Network, the land transfer area of ​​Fangchenggang was 3.53 million square meters in 2017, which was almost doubled by 2018, reaching 6.89 million square meters.

At that time, there were more than ten real estate agencies on the commercial street of Fangchenggang. There were more than ten real estate agencies. It was more comparable to the decoration, decoration, housing custody, building materials and other industries. The true portrayal of the time.

At the same time, buyers from the Northeast, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanxi and other places buy a story of a shop or a dozen houses at one time. Almost many people in Fangchenggang building have heard or experienced.

Such a housing boom has created a "Fangchenggang Free Day Tour" tour group. In addition to visiting the essences of Fangchenggang essences such as Bailang Beach and Shijiao Mangrove Reserve, the tour group can also taste local specialties, and sometimes there are even free gifts.

However, in the process of playing, I watched a few real estate and visited the model room. Although the cost is high all the way, as long as a client can place an order in a group, it can basically make a stable earnings.

At that time, there were media reports that some MLM organizations also preached the development potential of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone and the investment potential of the real estate market of the North Bay Bay Economic Zone through the name of "seeing a day tour" in the "seeing a house" to seduce the home tourists who do not understand the local situation to buy a house. And entering illegal organizations such as MLM.

Of course, MLM cannot create such a huge property market. Fangchenggang's side -by -side hot -selling data is mainly from the continuous stream of foreign speculators.

According to statistics from Fangchenggang Real Estate Network, in 2018, Fangchenggang City (including port area, Fangcheng District, Dongxing City) sold a total of 48,486 commercial houses, an increase of 85.46%compared to 2017.

Zhou Ming told China News Weekly that in those years, as long as you are walking in Fangchenggang City, the real estate under development and construction can be seen everywhere. The high tower crane is integrated with the city's skyline. The scene has been replaced by a large number of rotten tail buildings and empty rooms. "

Seriously rely on export

In the myth of the property market in Fangchenggang, the "role" of "channel sales" is indispensable.

Fangchenggang has a port area, Fangcheng District, Dongxing City, and Shangsi County. Among them, Fangcheng District is the old town, most of which are local people. The port area is a new district. The newly built real estate is mainly concentrated in this area.

Zhao Feng, the person in charge of a real estate project in Fangchenggang City, told China News Weekly that most of the buyers in the port area are from other places, and nearly 90%of exports are exported. point".

Wu Ning also said that among the cities in Beibu Gulf, Fangchenggang has always given the highest commission to the channel. Taking a 80 -square -meter house with a total price of 400,000 as an example, if a square meter returns 1,000 yuan, the cost of nearly 80,000 will be given to the channel party.

Yan Yuejin, the research director of the Think Tank Center of the E -House Research Institute, told China News Weekly that although Fangchenggang in the past few years, due to many favorable factors, the property market ushered in a "small leap forward", but the shortcomings here have been obvious.

As a small border city with a permanent population of only more than 1 million, the demand for local buying houses in Fangchenggang is not high, and its own physical quantity is not enough to support this house price and seriously relies on export.

The high customer acquisition cost also damages the local property market to a certain extent. "It is not a small number to get clients from all over the country, to find customers from all over the country.

Image source: Kerry Data System

The epidemic is considered to be the "last straw" that overwhelms the Fangchenggang property market.

According to the Kerry data system, the transaction area of ​​Fangchenggang's commercial residential residence in 2019 was 2.4607 million square meters, and by 2020, it was only 1.356 million square meters, which was almost cut. By 2021, it fell to 930,600 square meters, and the transaction area fell further.

Fangchenggang is located at the southwest of the mainland coastline. Its Dongxing City, which is under its jurisdiction, directly borders Vietnam. This allows Fangchenggang's border trade, fishery and tourism to flourish.

In Dongxing City, most of the epidemics have been exposed to contact with foreign personnel or overseas items.

From late February this year, Dongxing has opened a three -month -long epidemic sealing management, and has attracted widespread attention due to the long -term seal control. However, when everyone thought that the epidemic would enter the tail -tailed phase at the end of May, the epidemic came again on May 31.

Zhao Feng's guests are mainly from the northeast and northwest regions. The severe epidemic situation and high isolation costs have made most of the home buyers discourage.

Since the beginning of this year, the number of real estate visits in Fangchenggang has dropped by 85%, the volume of transactions has fallen by 70%, and the price of the real estate sold has fallen below 5,000 yuan per square meter, close to the market price in 2018.

In addition, Fangchenggang, as an emerging city, has not formed a relatively gathering living area. Most of its real estate is relatively scattered, and it is difficult to form a systematic and comprehensive new ecology.

In the 2022 Fangchenggang Government Work Report, it was mentioned that some historical problems such as the current real estate field need to be resolved, and it is still one of the main difficulties facing Fangchenggang.

"Wounds and bones are inevitable"

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 16, at the end of April this year, the area of ​​commercial housing for commercial housing was 55.735 million square meters, an increase of 8.4%year -on -year. Among them, the area of ​​residential sale increased by 14.8%. In April, my country's real estate development prosperity index (referred to as the national house boom index) was 95.89.

Under normal circumstances, the 100 points of the national house prosperity index are the most suitable level of prosperity. 95 to 105 points are moderate boom levels, and below 95 is a lower level.

In the case of such a depression, coupled with the severe epidemic prevention and control situation of Fangchenggang, the pressure of local commercial housing derives can be imagined.

On March 20, Guangxi lowered the proportion of housing loans in some cities. Among them, the minimum of commercial loans of commercial houses purchased for the first time in Beihai and Fangchenggang adjusted from 25%to 20%, further reducing the threshold Reasonable housing needs of buyers.

However, from the perspective of transaction data, the policy has not achieved the expected results. Wu Ning said that after the epidemic passed, the local property market would be recovered, but "the injuries cannot be avoided."

However, for the 12 -year -long and 7 -month de -refreshing cycle reported by the media, Wu Ning, who has long been paying attention to the Fangcheng Port property market for a long time, believes that this data does not have reference.

"In the case of low transaction volume, even if the inventory is not very high, its de -periodic cycle will be very long." Wu Ning explained. He believes that the current inventory area of ​​2.4575 million square meters of Fangchenggang is not much. It is only exaggerated because the data based on the epidemic sealing control caused the transaction volume in the first half of the year.

"After the epidemic passes, after the trading volume is recovered, even if it is difficult to return to the heyday, the estimation of the defense of the Fangcheng Port is two or three years." He said.

Zhao Feng believes that in the past, the house prices in Fangchenggang had a certain bubble in it, but as the market gradually matured and standardized, this part of the bubble was slowly compressed and gradually became rational.

However, Fangchenggang has to restore its vitality, and it has to be strong. After all, the myth that the property market has only risen has long been shattered. Under the large tone of living in the house, the decline in fertility rate and the downturn in the consumer market have hit a certain extent to a certain extent. Buyers are enthusiastic.

Yan Yuejin said that Fangchenggang can further increase publicity and vigorously develop the tourism and tourism industry. At the same time, strengthen the policy support and infrastructure construction of Fangchenggang City, and increase the attractiveness of the city.

Fangchenggang is located in the southwest side. It is difficult to compare the first and second -tier cities in terms of helping the company's rescue and the optimization of the business environment. Yan Yuejin said.He suggested that local policies support the property market.Author: Chen Shulian ([email protected])

Edit: Sun Xiaobo

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